Two of Donald Trump's key advisers have presented him with a plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine if he wins the November 5 presidential election, which involves telling Ukraine that it will receive more American weapons only if it starts peace talks, Reuters reported.
At the same time, the United States would warn Moscow that any refusal to negotiate would result in increased US support for Ukraine, said retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, one of Trump's national security advisers.
Under the plan of Kellogg and Fred Flaitz, who served as Trump's National Security Council chiefs of staff during his 2017-2021 presidency, a ceasefire based on current front lines would be established during the peace talks, Flaitz said.
They presented their strategy to Trump, and the Republican presidential candidate responded positively, Flajc added. "I'm not saying he agreed with all the details, but we were happy with the feedback we got," he said.
Trump spokesman Steven Chang said only statements made by Trump or authorized members of his campaign are considered official.
The strategy presented by Kellogg and Fleitz is the most detailed plan so far by associates of Donald Trump, who has said he would quickly resolve the war in Ukraine if he wins against President Joe Biden, although he did not specify how he would do it.
Reuters points out that this proposal would mark a major change in the US attitude towards the war and would be opposed by European allies and within the Republican Party itself.
The Kremlin has said that any peace plan proposed by a possible future Trump administration would have to reflect the reality on the ground, but that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains open to negotiations.
"The value of any plan lies in the nuances and taking into account the actual situation on the ground," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters.
"President Putin has repeatedly said that Russia was and remains open to negotiations, taking into account the actual situation on the ground," he added.
Mihailo Podoljak, adviser to the Ukrainian president, said yesterday that freezing hostilities on the current front lines would be "strange", given that Russia violated international law by invading Ukraine.
"Ukraine has an absolutely clear understanding and this is specified in the peace formula proposed by President (Volodymyr) Zelensky. It is clearly stated there that peace can only be just and peace can only be based on international law," he told Reuters.
The National Security Council (NSC) of the White House announced that the Biden administration will not force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.
"President Biden believes that any decision on the negotiations rests with Ukraine," NSC spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said.
NATO membership pending
Key elements of the plan were outlined in a publicly available research paper released by the Trump-friendly America First Policy Institute, in which Kellogg and Flaitz hold leadership positions.
Kellogg said it would be crucial to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table quickly if Trump wins the election.
"We would say to the Ukrainians, 'You have to come to the table, and if you don't come to the table, the US will end support,'" he said. "And we would say to Putin, 'You have to come to the table, and if you don't come to the table, we will give the Ukrainians everything they need to defeat you on the ground.'"
According to their research, Moscow would also be willing to sit down with a promise to delay Ukraine's NATO membership for a longer period.
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Until some Russian successes in recent months, the front lines have barely moved since the end of that year, despite tens of thousands of dead on both sides in continuous trench fighting.
Fleitz said that according to their plan, Ukraine does not have to formally cede territory to Russia. However, as he said, Ukraine will probably not regain effective control over all its territory in the near future.
"What worries us is that this has become a war of attrition that will kill a whole generation of young men," he added.
Lasting peace in Ukraine would require additional security guarantees for Ukraine, Kellogg and Flajc said. Flajz added that "arming Ukraine to the teeth" would likely be a key element of that.
"President Trump has repeatedly stated that a priority in his second term will be to quickly negotiate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine," Trump's spokesman Chang said.
Biden campaign spokesman James Singer said Trump is not interested in opposing Putin or defending democracy.
Advantage in negotiations
Under that plan, some Republicans will be reluctant to pay for additional aid to Ukraine. Reuters reminds that the US has spent more than 70 billion dollars on military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion.
"What Trump's supporters want is to reduce aid, if not turn off the faucet entirely," said Charles Kapchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Putin said this month that the war could end if Ukraine abandons its ambitions to join NATO and surrenders four eastern and southern areas that Russia is demanding.
During a United Nations Security Council meeting last week, the French and British ambassadors reiterated their position that peace can only be achieved when Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory, which is also Kiev's position.
An adviser to the Ukrainian president, Mihailo Podoljak, said that freezing hostilities on the current front lines would be "strange", given that Russia violated international law by invading Ukraine.
Several analysts also expressed concern that the Kellogg-Flytz plan could give Moscow an advantage in negotiations.
"What Kellogg is describing is a process that leans toward Ukraine handing over all the territory that Russia currently occupies," said Daniel Fried, a former assistant secretary of state who worked on Russia policy.
In an interview last week, Trump ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine and sounded skeptical about Ukraine joining NATO. He said he would quickly cut aid to Kyiv if elected.
Biden has consistently advocated more aid to Ukraine, and his administration supports its eventual entry into NATO. Earlier this month, Biden and Zelensky signed a ten-year bilateral security agreement.
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