You have to sympathize with the Hungarian officials.
Despite Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's record as the EU's chief provocateur, diplomats have worked overtime to emphasize that Budapest wants to have a normal, successful period when it takes on the role of mediator in discussions between EU countries starting July 1.
However, the fact that a plagiarism of Donald Trump's slogan was chosen as Hungary's motto for the six-month mandate - "Make Europe Great Again" - shows that perhaps not everyone is on the same wavelength.
Although the rotating presidency of the EU Council is supposed to put countries in the role of fair broker, asking them to put national interests aside in order to reach a compromise between states, the reality is that this position comes with crucial agenda-setting power in Brussels. The question is what Hungary will do with it.
"We are aware of the fact that they will monitor us very carefully to see if we cooperate honestly with members and institutions and if we will be honest mediators," said Hungarian EU Minister Janos Boka to Politiko.
"This will be carefully monitored, maybe even the standards will be higher with Hungary than with the other countries that have held the presidency," he added, stressing that Budapest will meet this higher standard.
Problem? That doesn't work in Brussels.
Budapest has been a constant thorn in the side of the EU in recent years, especially due to the postponement or easing of sanctions against Russia, the blocking of military aid to Ukraine and the lack of respect for the rule of law within the country. It's an ongoing drama that has led the EU to block (and partially unblock) funds for Hungary.
With few believing that Orban will not use the opportunity of his presidency to turn things around, the EU has been working hard to complete several sensitive issues before the end of the Belgian presidency: the opening of accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova , implementing a new package of sanctions against Russia and approving billions in military aid to Ukraine.
"The pressure on the Belgian presidency was obvious: get the job done before Orban comes, to limit the damage," said one EU diplomat who, like others in this article, asked to remain anonymous to speak candidly.
With few believing that Orban will not use the opportunity his presidency presents to turn things around, the EU has been working hard to finalize several sensitive issues before the end of the Belgian presidency
Until earlier this month, Budapest continued to block several key issues, much to the frustration of the other 26 countries. There was even talk of withdrawing Hungary's voting rights.
"Any normal presidency would want to finish those jobs to create some good mood before taking over," said one EU official. "But Hungarians don't work like that. They waited until the last moment to unblock".
The Hungarian presidency does not come at a key legislative moment, which is why some in Brussels are relieved.
"The Hungarian presidency only lasts half a year, so I don't think much damage can be done, even if these conflicts between Hungary and the EU institutions escalate," said Peter Kreko, director of the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute.
Attention in Brussels is currently focused on installing a new European leadership after the European Parliament elections on June 9. After the new head of the European Commission gets the green light from the Parliament, member states must nominate their candidates for commissioners, each of whom must face scrutiny and a vote in the European Parliament.
By the time the new Commission comes up with any legislative proposals to be dealt with by member states, the Hungarian presidency will be almost over.
"It will be a distinctly political presidency," said Gwendolyn Delbos-Corfield, MEP from the Greens. "It is not a presidency in which there will be legislative work".
However, that doesn't mean there won't be fireworks. You can expect a media spectacle when Orban comes to the European Parliament, who last year laid out a series of strategies to weaken, if not completely block, the Hungarian presidency.
Without a concrete policy to implement, Orban will probably use his time at the head of the EU for international affairs, said Milan Nič, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations. "He wants to use the influence he can have bilaterally with third parties." Those third parties are not to everyone's taste.
Orban welcomed the former US president's re-election efforts and will organize an informal meeting of the European Council in Budapest immediately after the US elections in November.
And in stark contrast to the positions of his fellow EU leaders, the Hungarian prime minister regularly rubs shoulders with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. One Russian operation to spread influence through Hungary is a key reason for the concern of other European capitals ahead of the presidency, EU diplomats told Politiko.
Boka disputes this, claiming that "there is nothing that supports the claim that we are close to Moscow, that we are friends with Moscow, and the same applies to Beijing."
He called Hungary's position towards EU foreign policy "pragmatic" in which "Hungarian and European interests are at the core".
Paradoxically, global attention could help curb Orban, Kreko said. "He will use it to use his international reputation... I tend to think that the Hungarian presidency will not have so many scandals because if you just create chaos and destroy the opportunity to influence certain things then it can backfire on you."
Orban could also use the opportunity to influence current efforts to unify the right after a right-wing turn in the European Parliament elections, although his Fidesz party remains politically homeless since leaving the European People's Party (EPP) in 2021.
Across the bloc, hard-right parties are rapidly entering governments, the most recent case being the Netherlands. The far right is also likely to make gains in the upcoming elections in France and Austria.
"It will be a real challenge," said another EU diplomat. "In the short term, Brussels will be able to limit the damage. However, in the event of Trump's re-election and a greater unification of the right in Europe, Orbán could increase his influence within the bloc."
A. Š. - NB
Bonus video:
