Several people were killed in the violence that broke out in the Syrian-Turkish border area near Afrin during anti-Turkish protests in northwest Syria. Protesters in the Turkish-controlled area said they stand in solidarity with their Syrian compatriots in Turkey.
There, in the central Anatolian city of Kayseri, shops and cars belonging to Syrian refugees were previously set on fire and destroyed. "We don't want any more Syrians," shouted the angry crowd.
Mass anger was also directed against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's policy in Syria.
"Erdogan, resign," chanted the protesters, showing that they no longer want to accept Erdogan's long-standing open-door policy for Syrian refugees.
About three and a half million people from Syria live in Turkey. Erdogan himself criticized the riots in Kayseri as "unacceptable". According to the media, around 470 people were arrested there.
Diplomatic rapprochement
Protests and violence are disrupting the planned rapprochement between the Turkish and Syrian governments. Only recently, the rulers of the two countries have more or less clearly announced that they want to reorganize their relationship, which has been damaged for many years.
Ankara put those relations on ice at the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011. In the conflict, Erdogan primarily supported jihadist groups fighting against the Syrian regime.
The relationship between the two countries deteriorated further as Turkey took control of parts of northwestern Syria in 2018. There, he is fighting Kurdish forces that Ankara describes as terrorists.
But now apparently some new winds are blowing. Erdogan said on June 28 that there are no obstacles to the restoration of diplomatic relations with Syria. Shortly before that, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad also hinted that he wanted to revitalize relations with Turkey.
Erdogan's interests
Much is at stake for both countries. The government in Ankara is under a lot of pressure because of the Syrian refugees living in Turkey. The sentiment against them has greatly worsened in recent years.
Erdogan wants to prevent more Syrians from coming to Turkey, says Andre Bank, an expert on Syria and Turkey at the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg. "He also wants to ensure that as many Syrians as possible leave Turkey again. If he succeeds in concluding a repatriation agreement, it would be a major political success for Erdogan at home."
Turkey also has its sights set on northeastern Syria. The Turkish army has been fighting the Kurdish YPG militia there for years. It is believed to be closely associated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is active in Turkey and is characterized as a terrorist organization there - as it is in the European Union.
The development of events in the northeast could be a real trigger for the negotiations between Syria and Turkey that could take place soon, according to Michael Bauer, the head of the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) office in Lebanon, who follows the events in Syria from there.
"The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are present in the region and are opposed to Assad, as well as the Kurdish self-government, have recently stated that they want to hold local elections in Kurdish-controlled areas," Bauer points out.
That project is met with rejection, especially in Turkey. "Due to international pressure, they have now been postponed until August."
The goals of the Syrian regime
In contrast, the Syrian regime also pursues concrete goals by rapprochement. Basically, Assad wants to continue the process of normalization with the Arab states, says Andre Bank.
This began in May 2023 at the latest, when Syria was re-admitted to the Arab League as an active member. Assad wants to continue that course when it comes to his non-Arab neighbors.
The regime also wants to regain the Idlib region in the northwest of the country, which is currently controlled by the radical Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Since Turkey controls the northern part of Idlib, cooperation between the two states could be an option.
This also applies to Kurdish-controlled areas in the northeast. The Assad regime also wants to expand its presence there again.
"A deal with Turkey would be very helpful," says Bank.
Mediation by Moscow
The question now arises as to what consequences the unrest on both sides of the border will have on the planned Syrian-Turkish rapprochement. On the one hand, they are probably opposed to rapprochement because of that atmosphere, because (at least) parts of the population of the two countries have expressed a strong mutual antipathy.
On the other hand, they could speed up the planned rapprochement, because cooperation could soften the demands and motives of the protesters, and both sides could "sell" this as a success domestically.
What may worry Europeans is that, according to observers, the first steps towards a Turkish-Syrian rapprochement have already been made behind the scenes - and with Russian mediation.
Russia is currently trying to expand its influence almost everywhere in the region. "We in the EU must be aware that Moscow will unconditionally pursue its own interests in Syria and the region. Even especially at the expense of Europe," warns German expert Michael Bauer.
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