French political parties face a major challenge to form a government after the result of yesterday's runoff created a parliament divided into three opposing blocs with drastically different agendas.
The left, the centrists and the ultra-right also have no tradition of working together.
The New Popular Front (NFP), a left-green alliance dominated by Jean-Luc Mélenchon's radical leftist France Unconquered (LFI), won and is estimated to have 170 to 215 seats in the 577-seat parliament.
According to the first estimates, the centrist coalition Together of President Emmanuel Macron will have around 150-170 deputies, while the ultra-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen and his allies, who expected a majority, can count on 130-160 deputies.
Although the winner is a surprise, the result in the form of a divided parliament was expected. According to the French constitution, there will be no new elections for a year. Macron has promised not to step down until the 2027 presidential election, so the question now is what's next.
The left, which wants to cap the prices of basic goods such as fuel and food, raise the minimum wage to a net 1.600 euros, increase wages for public sector workers and introduce a wealth tax, immediately announced it wanted to rule.
"The will of the people must be strictly respected... the president must invite the New Popular Front to govern," said Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
However, the unwieldy NFP coalition, made up of the Socialist Party (PS), the Greens and the Communists, is far short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.
The key question is whether the left-wing alliance, whose parties have long been at odds with each other, will remain united and agree on which direction to take.
Macron is under no obligation to ask that group to form a government, although that would be the usual step as it is the largest in parliament. The constitution allows the president to choose whomever he wants as prime minister. In practice, since the parliament can force the resignation of the government, the head of state always chooses someone who will be acceptable to the assembly.
Appointing a prime minister from the radical left would carry the risk of repeated no-confidence votes supported not only by the center-right and the ultra-right, but possibly also by the president's camp.
There were no hints in Macron's entourage about his next move.
"The question we will have to ask tonight and in the coming days is: Which coalition is capable of reaching the 289 seats needed to govern?" one of his close associates told Reuters.
The Guardian writes that France, unlike many continental European countries, has no experience with broad coalitions since the chaotic days of the Fourth Republic, but several politicians from the left and center have previously suggested that this could be a solution to a deadlocked parliament.
Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, long-time Macron ally François Bayrou and Greens leader Marine Tondelia, among others, said last week that the anti-RN coalition, from the moderate left to the center right, could unite around a basic legislative program.
"We are in a divided assembly. We have to behave like adults," said yesterday the leader of the French center-left Rafael Glucksman, who led the list of socialists in the European Parliament elections. "Parliament must be the heart of power in France".
No one won, Bajru noted, adding that "the days of the absolute majority are over" and that it is up to "everyone to sit at the table and accept their responsibilities."
A lot will depend on the LFI's willingness to compromise and the response of the moderate left if Melanchon's party refuses to cooperate, the "Guardian" assesses. This hard-left party said a long time ago that it would enter the government only to "implement our policies, not anyone else's."
Many of Macron's centrists have meanwhile said they will not enter into an alliance with the LFI. Preliminary estimates indicated that an alliance between Macron's forces, the PS, the Greens and several other parties could win the slimmest majority.
However, experts say that a mainstream coalition, while possible in principle, would be difficult to build given the parties' differing positions on issues such as taxes, pensions and investment in green energy.
"It's a nice idea on paper, but there's a huge gap between what's possible and what's actually achievable," said Bertrand Mathieu, an expert in constitutional law at the Sorbonne University in Paris.
Ad hoc alliances, technocratic government
Instead of trying to form a formal coalition government, outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Atal suggested last week that mainstream parties could potentially form various ad hoc alliances to pass individual laws.
"The Guardian" recalls that Macron has tried this strategy since losing his majority in 2022, but with limited success, as on numerous occasions he had to resort to special constitutional powers, such as the unpopular Article 49.3, to push the law through without a vote in parliament.
The president could also consider appointing a technocratic government, like those in Italy, made up of experts such as economists, senior civil servants, academics, diplomats and business or union leaders.
France has no experience with such governments. Jean-Philippe Derozier, a constitutional law expert at the University of Lille, said there was not even an "institutional definition" of them, so it would be "a normal government, free to act as it wants - as long as it has the support of parliament".
One option is for Macron to ask Atal, who said he would resign this morning, to remain at the head of some form of transitional government.
In any case, France is likely to face a long period of political uncertainty and instability, which could be characterized by minimal legislative progress at best and parliamentary deadlock at worst, "The Guardian" estimates.
Dominic Rainey, a political analyst, said a "minimal" government could have its advantages, presenting it as a "repair government" that could stabilize the situation and try to "fix what isn't working" for a people tired of political turbulence.
Others, however, have warned that the far-right RN and perhaps Mélenchon's LFI will present any temporary solutions as plots by political elites to strip them of power, which could lead to an even more destructive presidential campaign in 2027.
Macron has so far ruled out resigning before that date, but that may become more likely if total paralysis prevails, according to an analysis by the British paper.
"France today rejected the rule of the far right," said Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group consultancy. "But the results point to deadlock and paralysis, even if the left has exceeded expectations, while the far right has seriously failed."
Le Pen: Our victory was only delayed
Opinion polls had predicted a comfortable victory for the RN for weeks, before the centrist alliance teamed up with the left to block a landslide victory for the far-right in the second round.
RN leader Jordan Bardela last night called the alliance against his party, known as the "Republican Front", "shameful".
"After deliberately paralyzing our institutions, Emmanuel Macron pushed the country towards uncertainty and instability. In doing so, he deprived the French people of any answer to their daily hardships for many months to come," Bardella said.
Le Pen, who is expected to run for president in 2027, said yesterday's vote sowed the seeds for the future.
"Our victory is only delayed," she said.
Voters have punished Macron and his ruling coalition over the cost-of-living crisis and public service problems, as well as immigration and security issues.
Le Pen and her party have capitalized on these discontents and expanded their influence far beyond their traditional strongholds, but their huge success compared to previous elections was not enough to win power.
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