Ursula von der Leyen spent weeks trying to convince MEPs to back her for a second term as head of the European Commission. Yesterday, the day before the vote, many of them said that they had not yet decided whether to support her.
The European Parliament will decide today whether to give the 65-year-old von der Leyen another five-year mandate, which would mean continuity at the top of the 27-member EU at a time of numerous external and internal challenges.
In her first term, the former center-right German defense minister oversaw the presentation of the world's largest package of policies to combat climate change, the implementation of the €800 billion response package to the Covid pandemic, and helped mobilize EU support for Ukraine, Reuters reminds.
At a time when the EU faces what some see as an existential threat from Russia's war in Ukraine, uncertainty over the US presidential election in November and an intrusive China, von der Leyen's supporters say she offers stability.
Blocking her appointment after the European Parliament elections last month could push the EU into a political impasse, in an atmosphere of growing popularity of far-right and Eurosceptic parties, the British agency points out.
It could also create a leadership vacuum by disrupting agreement on other EU leadership positions and delaying the start of the new European Commission, the EU's executive body, until 2025.
"We've all seen the turmoil in the United States... It's very clear, we need the stability of the European Union," Bas Eykout, one of the leaders of the Green parliamentary group in the European Parliament, told Reuters.
Eykout and 53 deputies of the Greens, as well as many others in the EU assembly, said that they will make a decision on whether to support Von der Leyen when she presents her plan and offers concessions in today's speech.
"First they need to commit to some concrete items," said Socialist MP Delara Burkhart, citing more funds from the EU so that industry and households can afford the green transition.
Von der Leyen needs the support of at least 361 deputies out of a total of 720 deputies in the European Parliament.
The support of all deputies from the ranks of her center-right European People's Party (EPP), socialists and liberals gives her 401 votes, but it is a secret ballot and some deputies are expected to vote against her despite party affiliation.
For an easy passage, she may need the support of parts of the 78-member European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group or the Greens. Due to the internal divisions in the ECR, the support of the Greens seems like a safer option.
It is unlikely that he will win over both factions, given their conflicting demands. The Greens want to preserve climate policies, while the ECR wants to relax them.
Von der Leyen did not attend the summit in Washington last Sunday as she worked to gather support, but no group has come forward to say they will vote for her. "Uncertain about her chances for re-election, Von der Leyen strove to expand her majority in an intense round of negotiations. She first tried to build a bridge with the hard right, especially the 78-seat European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), but that exposed her to criticism from the center left. Then she turned to the Greens, who have 53 seats, and renewed her commitment to the climate agenda, while at the same time assuring liberals that she would not make any concessions to the far right," European law professor Alberto Alemano said in a column for "The Guardian" in which he states that Von der Leyen does not deserve another mandate. He added that all these groups, including those within its majority, have meanwhile formulated a series of demands that are difficult to harmonize.
Some MPs have indicated that they will not support it.
"I can't imagine that we could support Ursula von der Leyen," said Adam Bielan, leader of 18 Polish ECR deputies, after meeting with her on Tuesday. He cited "wrong decisions" on migration and climate change as the reason.
The group Brothers of Italy, of Italian Prime Minister Đorđe Meloni, which is part of the ECR, has not confirmed whether their 24 MPs will support von der Leyen.
There is no clear "plan B" if von der Leyen fails to win the majority of votes, Reuters points out.
Some MEPs argue that her rejection would embolden Eurosceptic MPs - who have vowed to oppose her - hinting that a surge in support in last month's election has empowered them enough to disrupt EU institutions.
"That would be considered a victory, especially for the far right," said EPP MP Sean Kelly, who plans to support von der Leyen.
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