Armenia turns its back on Russia

As a farewell, the anthem of Russia and then Armenia echoed through the airport building in Yerevan. After the ceremonial handover to their Armenian colleagues, dozens of Russian border guards left the airport, carrying the white-blue-red Russian flag at the head of the column.

This ceremony ended almost 32 years of the presence of Russian border guards at the only international airport in Armenia. According to the agreement between the two countries, Russia stationed around 4.500 border guards and almost as many soldiers in Armenia for the protection of that neighboring country.

The Armenian government sees the withdrawal from the airport as the first step in the implementation of the agreement reached by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin in May of this year. Russia also adhered to another agreement: its border guards also withdrew from Armenia's border with Azerbaijan, where they set up a series of checkpoints in 2020.

Left stranded in Nagorno-Karabakh

In the meantime, the helicopter base that served Russia to supply its "peace forces" was also dismantled in this border area. Their role was to protect more than 100.000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, a conflict-ridden region that broke away from Azerbaijan. However, in September 2023, Armenians fled an "anti-terrorist operation" by the Azerbaijani army, which led to the capture of the area.

Reports from refugees suggest that Russian soldiers supported the disarmament and evacuation of Armenians - thereby partially abdicating their protective role. That is why many Armenians do not blame the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh solely on the failure of their own army. They feel betrayed by Russia, which sees Azerbaijan as a more important economic and strategic partner than Armenia.

This is not just about Nagorno-Karabakh - which is within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan. It is also about the territory of Armenia itself: Azerbaijani troops entered Armenian territory several times in 2021 and 2022. They still hold strategically important points on the Armenian side of the common border.

This violation of the territorial integrity of Armenia obliged the protector Russia and its defense alliance "Collective Security Treaty Organization" (CSTO) to actively support Armenia. However, that did not happen. Armenia complained that the CSTO did not even adopt a resolution against Azerbaijan.

EU monitors monitor border, military exercises with US

Only when the Armenian government approached the EU in the fall of 2022 did the CSTO offer its mission. Nevertheless, Armenia opted for an EU observation mission.

Since unarmed EU observers began patrolling the borders with Azerbaijan, there have been no military conflicts comparable to those of 2021 and 2022.

From the EU, Armenia receives 10 million euros for its armed forces - in addition to a package in the amount of 270 million euros. Visa liberalization for the Schengen zone and further steps towards convergence are currently being negotiated. The Armenian government also briefly considered a referendum on joining the Union.

Meanwhile, Armenia has frozen its membership in the CSTO - it no longer pays membership fees, nor participates in meetings and military exercises. Prime Minister Pashinyan announced the exit from the CSTO - but did not specify a date - as usual, upon closer examination, one sees a lot of rhetoric and few consistent steps.

Armenia is looking for new partners. It buys military equipment from France, India and the Czech Republic. Exercises were held with the USA for the second time in July: the US Army stated as goals, among other things, training for joint peacekeeping missions and familiarization with the equipment of both sides.

Economic connection with Russia

Russia, which is politically and militarily engaged in Ukraine, reacts to all this with regrets, warnings and threats. However, so far it has not used any of the means that Armenia fears.

One of the significant levers is the price that Russia is asking for the exclusive supply of gas. In addition, Russia is the most important market for Armenian products and - despite the wave of emigration caused by the war in Ukraine - remains a significant labor market for Armenians. Many families in their homeland still depend on remittances from Russia.

The close economic connection is also reflected in Armenia's membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, which, in addition to Russia and Armenia, also includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Leaving the customs union would be long-term and economically unfavorable for Armenia, and that is why it is not being discussed.

The situation in the world is monitored - who loses and who wins

Armenia and other states of the region are trying to secure themselves on all sides and are carefully watching: Is Russia winning the war against Ukraine? What promises are the EU countries fulfilling? How is EU enlargement discussed? Who will win the US election? How is the situation developing in the Middle East and Asia?

Sargis Kandayan, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the parliament, recently in a conversation with German journalists, said: in the last resort, Armenia cannot rely on anyone and must develop its own economic and military strength - with a number of partners.

Armenia demands respect

It is clear that it will take time for Armenia to free itself from dependence on Russia and that it can exploit Russia's weaknesses here and there. In this sense, measures such as exercises with the American army are primarily aimed at forcing more respect from Russia - says security expert Richard Giragosyan, director of the Center for Regional Studies in Yerevan.

Thus, during their last hours at the airport in Yerevan, Russian border guards had to watch American soldiers prepare for the flight, after training with the Armenian armed forces in the previous days.

Parts of this article are based on a research trip through Armenia, which was organized by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, close to the SPD, and the expenses of the trip were covered by the public service NDR.