East Germany has, according to statistical data, made fairly good progress in catching up with the richer west over the past decade, but that success has done little to dispel economic pessimism, which fueled the rise of anti-establishment parties. Ahead of elections in the three eastern states, which take place on Sunday, the two parties - one on the far right and one on the economic far left - have a combined support of between 40% and 50%, while a recent study shows that half of the residents of eastern Germany are convinced that their region economically stagnates.
The study, carried out by the economic institute DIW, also found that a fifth of people in the east feel neglected.
However, economic data tell a different story, Reuters agency points out. Over the past decade, per capita output has grown more in the East than in the West, unemployment has fallen there, while the West has risen slightly, and wages for workers in the East have grown more.
However, voters don't see it that way.
"The economy in Thuringia is quite weak, especially in Eisenach," said 20-year-old student Luis Hutig on the Eisenach square while waiting for an event by the populist BSW party, which combines social conservatism with left-wing economics. Economists say the narrative of ex-communist East Germany as the perpetually poor cousin, even decades after reunification, is no longer true.
"This old story that East Germany is economically much worse than West Germany has been largely overcome," Berenberg's chief economist, Holger Schmiding, told the British agency.
So why can't the mainstream parties and the central government in Berlin change that impression among the people?
Not that they didn't try. Politicians from the main parties have highlighted the progress the region has made in recent years, highlighting improvements to public infrastructure and talking about its "industrial renaissance" fueled by high-tech investment.
One of the reasons why such a message is not getting through is that the gap in income and wealth between the West and the East may have narrowed, but it has not disappeared, and progress is harder to show when the neighbor is still better off, writes Reuters.
Economists note that average monthly wages rose between 2014 and 2022 by 735 euros in the east compared to 585 euros in the west, and that lower living costs are bringing real incomes closer. However, the gross salary in the east, which amounts to 3.013 euros per month, is still lower than the 3.655 euros earned by workers in the west.
"Wages are still too low compared to wages in the West for the same job," Dieter Laudenbach, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) candidate for the Gera district, told Reuters.
Unemployment in eastern Germany also remains higher at 7,8% compared to 5,1% in the west, although it has fallen by 1,7 percentage points since 2013, while the unemployment rate in the west rose by 0,2 points. The gap in accumulated wealth also remains, with 98% of all inheritance taxes paid in the west.
Another factor is Berlin's green policy, which further reduces the popularity of the federal coalition government in the east. East Germany is more rural than the rest of the country, with more than 10% of the workforce active in agriculture and forestry, compared to the national average of 1,2%, and the push for clean energy is seen as a threat to the agricultural sector.
"Probably the biggest source of pessimism is the migration from east to west after reunification, which created a feeling of abandonment among those who remained," Marcel Fracšer, president of the DIW economic institute, told Reuters.
"The most important explanation for the strength of AfD and BSW in East Germany is demographic factors". he said. Western urban centers such as Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt or Cologne, despite their own problems, such as rising rents, continue to attract young and educated people, which has serious consequences for key public services.
"Where young, qualified people migrate, schools and hospitals close, and the share of votes for AfD and BSW is much higher," said Fracšer.
Nina Kizau, 28, who works as a development consultant, said this was the reason she left Thuringia and moved to Cologne. "There are not enough teachers in schools, and there are also problems with doctors," she told Reuters. "I think a lot of people fear that they won't be taken care of and feel abandoned."
Peter Pihl, 43, who works for the AfD in Gera, said the provincial government should offer incentives for young professionals to stay at least five years after graduation. "Many young people leave because there is no perspective here," he said.
While the population in western Germany grew by 10% to 68 million between 1990 and 2022, it fell by 15% in the eastern part to 12,6 million, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office.
The population in the east has also aged faster: while the proportion of those under 20 fell from 21% to 19% between 1990 and 2022, it fell from 25% to 18% in the east.
Immigration is another hot issue and was marked as the biggest concern of voters in Saxony and Thuringia, according to a recent survey.
Although according to the latest census from 2023, foreigners represent 7,9% of the population of East Germany, twice as low as in West Germany, both AfD and BSW oppose increased immigration. They argue that instead of helping to alleviate labor shortages, immigrants would put additional strain on public services.
Instead, the AfD calls for more professional training and incentives for families to increase the birth rate. "We have to make sure that the desire to have children gets a higher priority again," said Reinhard Ecrod, the AfD's representative in Gera's local government.
Economists warn that, like some of the parties' other ideas, their anti-immigration stance could have negative consequences. "An AfD victory could scare and deter foreign workers from coming to these provinces," said Karsten Brzeski, global director of macroeconomics at ING Research.
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