German democracy on the test

According to forecasts, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) will win at least one of the two elections held tomorrow in the eastern federal states, which will increase pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz's federal coalition regarding the economy, immigration and support for Ukraine, the agency estimates. Reuters.

The AfD, which has existed for 11 years and enjoys greater support in the former communist eastern regions, is unlikely to be able to form a provincial government even if it wins, as polls show it does not have a majority and other parties refuse to cooperate with them.

The leaders of the mainstream German parties, according to the Politiko portal, are aware of the fact that Adolf Hitler initially came to power through elections - and that the conservatives then helped to normalize the Nazis by participating in coalition governments with them, first in the eastern province of Thuringia, and later also at the federal level.

In order to avoid a repeat of history, the main parties are now promising to maintain Firewall, or protective wall, around the AfD, refusing to include them in coalition governments - or, for that matter, to cooperate with that party in passing any kind of legislation.

However, as Reuters points out, this will be the first time that a right-wing party has the most seats in the parliament of a German state since World War II. Their strength will complicate the formation of coalitions and could enable them to block constitutional changes and the appointment of judges.

The AfD has 30% support in Thuringia, almost 10 points ahead of the second-placed conservatives, while in Saxony it is tied with them at around 30-32%. Sahra Wagenkneht's newly formed far-left Alliance (BSW) is expected to come third in both provinces.

BSW, named after its founder, a former communist, also opposes immigration and military support for Ukraine to fight a Russian invasion; both parties strive for better relations with Moscow.

Given the complex mathematical calculations involved in forming coalitions in a fragmented political landscape, polls indicate that BSW could find itself in the role of a key actor.

An expected strong result from the two populist parties is likely to exacerbate the tense political atmosphere in Europe's biggest economy and highlight the lingering discontent in the former communist east more than three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

"But it would be a mistake to reduce this election to a vote in East Germany," Alexander Moritz, a public radio correspondent from Saxony, told the British "Guardian".

"They are a test for the entire German democracy. Inflation, fear of war and restrictions on freedoms during the pandemic have left many people in chronic distress. For the first time since 1932, right-wing extremists could become the strongest party in the German parliament in free elections”.

AfD's main issue, migration, came to the fore after last Sunday's knife attack in the western city of Zollingen, in which a 26-year-old Islamic State member from Syria was accused of killing three people.

"We want to end the failure of the state, the loss of control," AfD co-chair Alice Weidel said at a campaign rally in Dresden on Wednesday. "This can only be achieved through a sustainable change in migration and asylum policy".

All three parties in Solco's ruling coalition are expected to lose votes, and two may even have trouble crossing the 5% threshold to enter parliament.

Business leaders are warning of the threat of far-right extremism to Europe's biggest economy, saying it could make it harder to attract skilled labor and investment. German politicians say populist rhetoric fueled the physical attacks.

The AfD in Thuringia is led by Bjern Heke, whom some in the party consider so extreme that they tried to expel him.

The former history teacher called Berlin's Nazi Nkemačka Holocaust memorial a "monument of shame" and was convicted earlier this year for using a Nazi slogan at a party rally.

"Germany is a bit late when it comes to the rise of right-wing parties," Kai Archheimer, a political scientist from the University of Mainz, told The Guardian. He pointed to the success of figures like Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, Giorgio Meloni, Geert Wilders and Robert Fitz in their countries, while the German "protective wall" remained.

"What is unusual about the AfD is that, unlike Le Pen in France or Wilders in the Netherlands, who try to present themselves as having nothing to do with right-wing extremism, the AfD has people in its ranks who have been convicted of using Nazi slogans," said Arzheimer.

"It seems that it doesn't hurt them that they present themselves as extreme right, and especially in East Germany, it seems to be well received", he pointed out.

The "protective wall" has already fallen across East Germany

Due to the AfD's popularity in local politics across eastern Germany, the protective wall has already fallen in many ways. In the period between 2019 and 2023, more than 120 cases of cooperation between the AfD and the main parties in local government, most often with the Democrats, were recorded, according to a recent study published by the progressive foundation Roza Luxemburg.

Examples of such cooperation include the case in Saxony where the main parties in a city council supported the AfD's proposal to ban the use of gender-neutral language in advertising for the city's theater. In another case, in Thuringia, the main parties supported the AfD's proposal to hold a vote on the dismissal of the leftist mayor.

"The protective wall at the district level no longer exists and this will only get worse," Jana Pinka, a local politician from Ljevica, told Politiko. "I am really afraid that the situation will become even darker. Sometimes I look for parallels with the thirties".