The far-right's first post-war victory in a German federal state election has raised questions in Berlin, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz's hated and significantly weakened coalition is likely to survive.
All three parties in Scholz's center-left coalition suffered painful losses, while the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the new anti-establishment populist party recorded record gains in local elections Sunday in the eastern states of Thuringia and Saxony.
Scholz, a Social Democrat, described the results as "bitter" but Finance Minister Christian Lindner rejected suggestions that his neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), which fared worst of all coalition partners, should quit the government.
Although federal parliamentary elections are still a year away, the results are likely to strain the coalition, which is already divided over ideological differences and grappling with the fallout from the war in Ukraine, including a cost-of-living crisis.
The AfD became the first far-right party to win a federal state parliamentary election in Germany since World War II, winning 32,8% of the vote in Thuringia. It also took second place, with 30,6%, just behind the conservative Christian Democrats in neighboring Saxony.
The Free Democrats (FDP) were defeated, kicked out of the Thuringian parliament and failed to cross the 5 percent threshold to re-enter the Saxony parliament. At a press conference, Thomas Kemmerich, the defeated FDP candidate in Thuringia, said the result showed it was time for the FDP to find its way.
"No," Lindner said. "That's where we disagree. It is absolutely necessary that we provide a greater stimulus to the economy," he added, stressing that the pro-business FDP is needed in the government to achieve this.
"Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is harming Germany. It weakens the economy, divides society and destroys the reputation of our country," Solc said.
The final week of the campaign was overshadowed by the murder of three people, suspected of being an illegal immigrant, which gave the AfD an additional boost.
In that light, Lindner said the FDP is ready to consider changes to Germany's postwar democratic constitution or European law that would help crack down on immigration. Analysts warn that the growing influence of the far right could harm Europe's biggest economy by scaring away investors and skilled workers.
"It's a bad signal for international investors," said Joakim Šalmajer, DekaBank's strategist.
The AfD, branded "extremely right-wing" by security officials in the two eastern German states, will not rule as long as other parties stick to their pledge to unite to keep it out of power.
However, the AfD, after its triumph in Thuringia and Saxony, claims that the government in Berlin should go and insists that it has a mandate to govern. "Voters want new national elections," said one of the leaders of the AfD, Alice Weidel. "Scholz and his coalition partners should pack their bags".
The nationalist, anti-immigrant and pro-Russian party has enough seats in Thuringia to block decisions that require a two-thirds majority, such as the appointment of judges or top security officials. This "sperrminorität" - the German term for a blocking minority - gives her unprecedented influence in the opposition.
"The results for the AfD in Saxony and Thuringia are worrying," Scholz told Reuters in his capacity as a member of parliament from the Social Democrats (SPD). "Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is harming Germany. It weakens the economy, divides society and destroys the reputation of our country".
The populist left-wing party, the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded by a former member of the old East German Communist Party, fared better than all three of its Berlin coalition partner parties in its first state election, coming in third. As a result, the former communist could have a decisive role, but Wagenknecht was reserved about how she would use the position.
At a press conference, she said that any coalition partner would have to accept her party's demands for greater diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine and opposition to the stationing of US missiles in Germany.
"Half of the people in Germany fear being dragged into a big war," she said of her demand that Ukraine stop receiving German weapons to defend against a Russian invasion. "Two-thirds of the people in the East are against American missiles," she added in a statement that recalled the Kremlin's position.
Power instability in Germany's government could also complicate European politics, especially when the bloc's other major power, France, is still struggling to form a government after snap elections in June and July.
Valerie Haier, a French politician who heads the liberal Renew Europe group in the European Parliament, called the state election results "unprecedented" and posted on the X network that "a dark day for Germany is a dark day for Europe."
The outcome of the election will likely trigger a discussion about the consequences of uncertain coalitions. Analysts suggest that voters may punish the main parties for their inconsistent coalitions by more strongly supporting anti-establishment parties in the next election.
"If there is no political implementation, real changes, reforms, voters can say that the political process has been taken over by the elite," said political analyst Oliver Lembcke from the University of Bochum. "It's a vicious circle".
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