The perspective of the admission of new members to the European Union (EU) by the end of the mandate of the future European Commission (EC) looks more optimistic than at any time in the last decade.
And if one new member does not become a full member, it is realistic to expect that by the end of this decade, at least one country will conclude negotiations on membership and is just waiting for the admission date.
During the late autumn, the five-year mandate of the new European Commission will begin.
The president of this executive institution, Ursula von der Leyen, has already announced that EU enlargement will be the main priority of the institution, which she will lead again in the new mandate until 2029.
Exactly ten years ago, during his first speech as the head of the European Commission (EC) in the European Parliament, the then president of that commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, was the first to publicly say in September 2014 that the EU would not grow during his mandate.
It was a "cold shower" for the countries of the region, which have been regularly promised a European perspective since 2003.
Juncker's mandate ended in 2019, and his darkest predictions were exceeded.
A dedicated commissioner for enlargement – proof of commitment to the process
The President of the European Commission recently confirmed that she will appoint a special commissioner for enlargement, which, according to her, is proof of the increased importance of the portfolio.
"Enlargement was a priority during the first mandate of this Commission and President Von der Leyen has already made it clear that it will continue to be a strategic priority, furthering her intention to appoint a dedicated Commissioner for Enlargement in the future collegium," she told Radio Slobona Europe. (RSE) Ana Pisonero, spokeswoman for the EC.
For years, the so-called "enlargement fatigue" dominated the EU.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a kind of wake-up call.
Possible EU membership is seen as a tool to soften Russia's influence on some countries outside the EU's borders, which float between East and West.
Ten countries pending
Before the war in Ukraine, seven countries were part of the enlargement process: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Kosovo and Turkey.
Given that ten countries are now in the process of enlargement, as the countries from the Eastern Partnership (Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova) are included, it has now become an important department in the European Commission. Accordingly, interest is much higher than it was at the beginning of Von der Leyen's first mandate, in 2019.
The last commissioner who dealt exclusively with enlargement was Olli Ren, and during his mandate the last enlargement of the EU took place, when Croatia became a full member.
After Reno, the three commissioners who succeeded to that function (Štefan File, Johanes Han and Oliver Varhelji) had both enlargement and the EU neighborhood in their portfolios.
Although enlargement commissioners, they all had a much larger number of states in the neighborhood sector than enlargement.
Jana Juzova, an expert from the Institute for European Policies (EUROPEUM), is of the opinion that within the EU there is now indeed a political will for the admission of new members to the European bloc.
"I believe that we currently have a certain political will within the EU, and priority is given to enlargement, which we have not seen in the last decade and a half. A sign of this is Ursula von der Leyen's announcement that within the new European Commission, there will be a dedicated position of commissioner for enlargement, which would could help to improve the guidelines given to the candidate countries, and further speed up the process If a country shows convincing progress in meeting the accession criteria, it could be possible to see another enlargement of the Union by 2030 or at least the completion of the accession process and the beginning of the ratification of the accession treaty," Juzova said in a statement for RSE.
Seven expansion waves, one 'Big Bang'
Since its formation in 1957, the European Union has received new members seven times. In 2004, the largest enlargement in history took place, the so-called "Big Bang" when the EU suddenly received 10 new members.
No one has any more expectations that the "Big Bang" will happen again.
The EU will most likely continue to expand, in several waves, but with a smaller number of states.
"Bearing in mind that given the wide differences and different levels of preparedness among the candidates, this will almost certainly not be another 'big bang' enlargement but rather the 'Regatta' principle will be applied, allowing each country that is ready to advance first," is the opinion of Jana Juzova.
Serbia and Montenegro leaders from the region
After the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the narrative of European officials on EU enlargement mainly refers to the future membership of Kyiv.
However, one cannot bypass the countries of the Western Balkans, which are far more advanced in the accession process and have been waiting much longer for admission.
Montenegro and Serbia are considered regional leaders in accession processes.
Admittedly, these two countries are at different stages in the accession negotiations.
Negotiations between Belgrade and Brussels have been practically frozen for three years due to the non-introduction of sanctions against Russia in response to aggression against Ukraine.
In June of this year, Montenegro unfroze membership negotiations; has opened all chapters and is working towards closing them. It is the most advanced country from the expansion group.
Experts from the European Commission do not rule out the possibility that Montenegro, provided there is political will, could close all chapters in the next two years in order to pave the way to full membership by 2028, or 2030 at the latest.
Both for and against in Belgrade and Podgorica
Milka Knežević from Belgrade tells RSE that Serbia "should already be in Europe because it is in Europe".
"But the distance that the so-called Western Europe, but it's not even Western, it's both Western and Eastern, pushes us away from itself. I think that this same Europe allows nothing to work in our country, for everything to fail. They surely they all know that education and health, the judiciary - everything that is the basis of a democratic state is collapsing - and they let it happen, so I think that it actually keeps our ruler in power and means nothing good for us what would be worth it is that passport. But even without that passport, everyone moves away. So I don't know what Europe would do for us at all," says this Belgrade woman.
She believes that Serbia will not be admitted to the EU.
"I think that they will disintegrate sooner than we will enter, and that there will be some other political distribution in the world and that Europe will then mean nothing to us," he says.
And Mustafa Mehmedović says that Serbia is in Europe, but isolated, and that there is "no chance" of joining the EU because it is "mostly Orthodox".
"They've been saying that for twenty-something years to talk about expansion, they'll be talking about expansion for another twenty-something years. It's pure politics. In what ways are we lagging behind them? We're not lagging behind anything. But I think, I don't know, that's my opinion, that we are too honest and that we trust them much more, which we shouldn't. Because I think that they are just slandering us," said this citizen of Belgrade.
Regarding whether joining the Union would be beneficial, he says: "I think that the people, 70-80 percent, do not trust the European Union, what is happening, I think they don't. Because you have to say what they say, you can't think for yourself. Because they choose for themselves who will rule in Serbia. The people don't choose.
Nemanja Perović from Belgrade believes that Serbia will not join the EU "in the next ten years at least", and explains the reasons:
"I think that our country is not functioning in the most normal way, this government and the previous governments, and the European Union does not want anyone in its ranks at the moment, they have enough problems of their own, so I think that it is mutual, and that this (association process) is only for for the sake of form", comments Nemanja Perović.
Whether it would be important for Serbia to join the EU and why such a thing would possibly be important to the citizens, Perović illustrates with the example of Bulgaria.
"As one of my friends from Bulgaria would say, he says, nothing much has changed, only the politicians have become a little more normal. They can no longer abuse their position as they could before. One thing is an advantage. So here too it could be copied.
"We would be forced to function better," he believes.
"Not because we are afraid, but we would have to follow some rules," he concludes.
Andrijana Sjekloća from Podgorica believes that "for several reasons" it is important for Montenegro to join the EU, "mostly due to the harmonization of all segments of society such as education, health, justice and all that".
"And we don't know when Montenegro will enter, I wouldn't want to guess. I'm not sure that this dynamic of development and situation in general in our society leads to a quick entry, but I hope as soon as possible, because it would be good for all of us. He mentions 2028, there is also mention of 2030, but I am not competent. I hope as soon as possible, because we need to be restrained and controlled from all sides," says this woman from Podgorica.
However, restaurateur Balša from Podgorica believes that joining the EU "would not bring good to our youth, our future, because the spark of freedom that Montenegrins have defended for centuries would be lost."
"By entering the European Union, we lose our rights to our own, independent laws and we will have to accept all the laws that the EU offers. And now we can see that the European Union offers bad things such as gay parades and other things that are immoral, so who has his eyes can see where it's all going," says this citizen of Podgorica, who did not want to give his last name or be photographed.
When asked if this means that he does not see any good things in the EU, he answers: "If we are going to sell religion for dinner, then we can see."
Marija Jovović, a trader from Podgorica, says that she does not know when Montenegro will be admitted to the EU, but she thinks that it will not be soon. He believes that they should not enter at all, because "we are by no means ready, nor do we deserve it.
"Not at all. Because we don't have that mentality. No one respects anything. The whole country is like that. We don't have health care, school, faculty, we don't have any, we don't have state enterprises, none of that. Maybe with the entry into the European Union, that would change, we would have a color standard, but It's hard for us to enter with these kinds of laws. Everything should change so that we can function as a civilized nation. That there are no narcotics. Today, I'm not satisfied with the state of health nor education. My daughter is studying in Belgrade because she can't do it here," says this thirty-eight-year-old woman.
Twenty-two-year-old Miloš Durković thinks that Montenegro could enter the European Union, in the most optimistic scenario, in about five or six years. He believes that the situation is getting better every year.
"Politicians collect points on issues of national identity and deal with unimportant things that burden that path. But it is definitely better than it was. It may seem that everything is small steps, but if it continues like this, I think it will only get better. The people would also , had to change and not be burdened with questions of nationalism, even though it is constantly being marketed to them, so that we all start together," assesses this student from Podgorica.
About why it is important for Montenegro to join the European Union, he says:
"Although I am not the biggest fan of the European Union, it is important that we join because I think it will bring us many benefits. It will be easier for us, a better economic standard, we will have freedom of movement, an easier transition to other countries. I would really like to be recognized as a European country, that we are not recognized by crime, for which we are the first. Personally, I am not against the Union, I just think that it is not as good as people say. It is better to be in the EU than to be with some warring parties we interfere in other people's internal conflicts."
The EU reached a record in stalled enlargement
The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, said last year that the EU should be ready to accept new members by 2030.
While regularly hesitant to commit to dates, after this point, various EU officials did not hesitate to mention this timeframe as a possibility.
However, even if the most ambitious predictions come true, and the EU really receives at least one new member by the end of this decade, or even if the procedures for membership are completed, the EU has already achieved the record for the longest period of stagnation in expansion.
It will be almost twenty years that the EU has not grown any more.
Croatia has enjoyed the status of the youngest member of the EU for the longest time.
Never in the history of the EU has there been such a long break without new members being accepted.
After the admission of Croatia in 2013, not that the EU did not expand, but also narrowed, with the departure of Great Britain, after BREXIT, the referendum that was held in 2016 on the exit of this country from the European family.
Chronology of enlargement since the founding of the EU
1957. – Founders of the European Economic Community - forerunners of the EU
- Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany
1973. – The first wave of expansion
- Denmark, Ireland, Great Britain (will leave the EU in 2020 after the referendum)
1981. – Second wave of expansion
- Grčka
1986. – The third wave of expansion
- Portugal, Spain
1995. – The fourth wave of expansion
- Austria, Finland, Sweden
2004. The fifth largest expansion wave (the so-called Big Bang)
- Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia
2007. – The sixth wave of expansion
- Bulgaria, Romania
2013. Seventh (last wave) expansion
- Croatia (newest member)
Main steps in the membership process
- Applying for membership
- Acquisition of candidate status
- Opening of accession negotiations
- Closing the negotiations
- Signing of the Accession Agreement
- Ratification of the accession agreement in the parliaments of all EU member states
- Entry into force of the accession agreement
- Full membership
- (Finland negotiated membership for the shortest time – 2 years. Turkey the longest – 19 years, and the negotiations have not yet ended).
Bonus video:
