Russia's invasion of Ukraine revived EU enlargement as an imperative. For years, "expansion" was low on the list of priorities - Croatia was the last country to join the club more than 10 years ago. However, things have changed. At the forum in Bled, Slovenia, which I attended this month, Ursula von der Leyen stated that the security of Europe depends on the expansion of the union of 27 states. Thanks to Vladimir Putin, as Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said, enlargement is back on track.
The fact that enlargement is a strategic priority makes it possible that new members will be admitted, but it does not make it certain.
Some 20 years have passed since the six countries of the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo) were promised the hope of membership, but little progress has been made since then.
The Balkan countries do not need the EU as a security guarantee. Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia are NATO members, while Bosnia and Kosovo have a large NATO presence. This is a very different scenario from the one in Eastern Europe, where the absence of a NATO shield to protect Ukraine, Moldova and the Caucasus means that these countries see EU membership as a substitute security guarantee.
However, Ukraine's EU membership efforts in particular have created a palpable fear of being left behind in the Western Balkans. Serbia wants nothing to do with NATO, and its close relationship with Moscow has complicated Belgrade's bid to join the EU, even more so than Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine.
Still, in important ways, the latest momentum around EU enlargement is helping Balkan countries aspiring to join. Had it not been for the invasion of Ukraine, accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia would certainly still have stalled, and Bosnia and Herzegovina would not have been recognized as a candidate for the EU. Perhaps the EU would also not approve the budget for the new six billion euro growth plan for the Western Balkans. That plan makes European investment conditional on reforms in the Balkans, but if its full potential is realized, countries in the region could receive almost as much money per capita as full members are entitled to under the EU's cohesion fund, which was created to help poorer regions "catch up" connection".
Ukraine's EU membership efforts in particular have created a palpable fear of being left behind in the Western Balkans
This would for the first time make economic convergence between the EU and the Western Balkans not just a dream. Numerous projects are being prepared that should make the gradual European integration of the region concrete, such as the inclusion of these countries in the single European payment zone in euros. While skepticism about the EU's intentions remains in Albania, the conversations I had during a recent visit to Tirana go beyond the usual list of complaints about Brussels' unfair treatment of the region.
However, that is not enough. Von der Leyen's next enlargement commissioner should raise the level of ambition of what gradual integration can actually deliver, with incentives such as inclusion in the Schengen area. Negotiations on the next seven-year EU budget, which start early next year and cover the period 2028-2034, should also take into account the financial implications of the admission of new members.
Most importantly, steps must be taken to remove the main poison from the existing enlargement policy. For too long, enlargement has been a victim of the whims of existing members seeking to promote their national interests. Whether it is Cyprus and Greece in relation to Turkey, Greece and Bulgaria in relation to North Macedonia, France (in the past) and Greece in relation to Albania, or Hungary in relation to Ukraine, the exploitation of accession policies by various members to promote their (legitimate or not) interests has dramatically undermined its credibility by constantly changing goals for aspirant countries.
For too long, enlargement has been a victim of the whims of existing members seeking to promote their own national interests
The main way this poison spreads is by giving EU governments the ability to block the process at every stage. Viktor Orban's Hungary is no longer even trying to hide this intention. However, there is nothing in EU law that requires such interference by member states, who are only required to give the green light for the start and end of the process. In previous rounds of enlargement, intermediate steps were properly treated as technical matters in the hands of the Commission. It is politically and legally possible to return to this method.
This requires a first mover to activate critical mass. Germany and Slovenia have already proposed ways to relieve that process. Other member states that support the European integration of the Western Balkans, such as Austria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Italy and Slovakia, should follow suit. Countries such as Poland and the Baltics, which are interested in Ukraine and Moldova's EU membership, and those that have recently supported enlargement, such as France, should come forward.
There will be exceptions like Hungary, and maybe Bulgaria, Greece and Cyprus. But, as the history of European integration proves again and again, when a critical mass is created in favor of a decision, it is very difficult for intransigent members to resist for long. If the supporters of an enlarged EU are real advocates, it is high time they show it through concrete political actions, not just words, even less through dubious bilateral migration deals like the one reached between Italy and Albania.
The author is a "Guardian" columnist.
Translation: A. Š.
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