The Austrian teenager who was killed last week after firing an antique rifle at German police in Munich is believed to have been influenced by Islamist extremism.
Emrah I. (18) came from a small town in the Salzburg region, while his parents come from the Tuzla area.
But he hardly visited his local mosque. He neither grew a beard nor dressed like a radical Islamist.
The only thing that could have predicted his behavior in Munich happened at the beginning of 2023.
Then Austrian police, investigating complaints about a fight at his school, found footage from a computer game on his phone. In them, he decorated the scenes with the Al Qaeda flag. But they found nothing else.
Police now believe the teenager has been radicalized online over the past few months.
The number of teenage terrorists is growing
Emrah I. is not an isolated example. Between March of last year and March of this year, researchers at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy counted 470 relevant legal cases related to Islamic State terrorists.
Teenagers or minors were involved in at least thirty of them. According to the Institute, "this number may be significantly higher given that many nations do not publish age data for those arrested."
Another study, led by Peter Neumann, professor of security studies at King's College London, analyzed 27 recent cases linked to Islamic State and found that in two-thirds of the cases, the people arrested in Europe were teenagers.
Last week, a 14-year-old boy was arrested in Uruguay after declaring himself a "lone wolf" terrorist online, and an 11-year-old boy was arrested in Switzerland last Friday for spreading extremist messages on social media.
Recruiting Western teenagers?
Although it was militarily defeated by 2017, the Islamic State still exists. Its activities flare up more and more brutally in African countries. And there is also an Afghanistan-based branch known as the Islamic State of Khorasan Province.
Since January this year, the Afghan branch has been encouraging followers to carry out attacks in Europe, particularly at major events such as the Olympics, concerts and football matches.
But experts do not think that these messages are specifically intended for European teenagers. The increase in teenage attackers has more to do with the way social media and messaging platforms allow teenagers to access Islamic State content.
Attacks by teenagers are usually "inspired" by the Islamic State, these attacks are not like others directly ordered from Afghanistan.
The situation is very different from that of 2014, when the Islamic State seized large parts of Iraq and Syria. Back then, potential recruits were often in direct contact with leaders in the Middle East who encouraged them to leave their homes and come to the "caliphate".
Lukas Weber, a researcher at the New York-based Soufen Center, a security think tank, says action is now much less centralized and there is a sustainable, organic community apparatus.
Peter van Ostjen, an analyst who has been investigating the Islamic State for more than a decade, says: "You still have a central media service and a central command that managed, for example, the attacks in Russia. But I think right now there's a much more diverse network recruiting these young people."
"It's more of a diffuse network where you have kids in their online circles, in these communities, who want to be influential," confirms Mustafa Ajad, executive director for Africa, the Middle East and Asia at the London-based Institute for Strategic Dialogue, which researches extremism.
"Ideology still plays a role - you can't ignore that - but the creation of Islamic State's TikTok mimes and presentations of shorter videos, in local languages, brings their ideas closer to young people."
The videos also have a recognizable dark aesthetic, notes Ajad, which he says "has, for lack of a better term, a new aspect of 'cool jihadism'."
Faster radicalization?
There are many examples of such networks, explains Ajad. In the case of the planned attack on the Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna, the Austrian police examined the digital connections of the suspected nineteen-year-old Austrian, of Albanian origin from North Macedonia.
The German police then detained a 15-year-old boy in Brandenburg, who was suspected of cheering on the Austrian.
A similar situation came to light after an Australian bishop was stabbed in April. After reviewing the connections on social networks of the sixteen-year-old perpetrator, six other teenagers were charged. They all kept in touch, via the Signal messaging app, in a chat group they started called "Plans".
The networks are diffuse and organic, no one knows how big they really are, and platforms are not doing enough to remove extremist content, notes Ajad. There is another problem.
According to the heads of the French and Swiss state security services, the process of radicalization is accelerating.
Why do teenagers fall for this?
The basic message that the Islamic State has always pushed remains the same. He says the world is persecuting Muslims, but if the individual they are speaking to joins together, they will be stronger together.
To alienated or marginalized teenagers looking for something to belong to, or a set of rules in a complicated world, this kind of message can be appealing, psychologists say.
There are also political factors that play a role. Islamic State is using the conflict in Gaza as proof that "the rest of the world hates Muslims" and that their supporters need revenge, experts say.
"The number of civilian casualties [from Gaza] caught on camera, easily accessible to everyone, highlighting the death and destruction, will also affect children," explains Ajad. "We know that this kind of violent content makes children withdraw or become more aggressive."
The rise of the far right in Germany, as well as the country's current debate over immigration and Islamophobia, are also likely to affect marginalized teenagers from those communities. "The more extreme right causes more jihadist behavior. It's that simple," Van Ostjen told DW. "Both of these groups reinforce each other."
So, how worried should we be about such teenagers whom some tabloids are already calling "TikTok terrorists"?
"Islamic State followers make a lot of noise and threats," says Ajad. "But I don't think we're at the same level as in 2015 and 2016. When it comes to these kids, their plots are usually not really thought out. But they could have huge consequences." , if they actually succeed. It only takes one successful attack."
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