Voting patterns and polling data from the past year suggest that the European Union (EU) is moving towards a more ethnic, closed and xenophobic understanding of "Europeanness", which could ultimately undermine the European project, according to a report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and European Cultural Foundation (ECF).
It identifies three key "blind spots" across the bloc and states that their intertwining could undermine or radically change pro-European sentiment, the Guardian reported.
The report argues that the apparent "whiteness" of EU politics, weak youth engagement and limited pro-European sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe can shape a European mood that is at odds with the bloc's core values.
"Mario Draghi dominated the conversation in Brussels by focusing attention on the need to revive the bloc's economy, which is losing its competitive edge," says Pavel Zerka, author of the report and senior policy fellow at ECFR.
"But if the economy is the engine of the EU, then 'European mood' should be seen as the fuel. And what is currently happening with the European mood requires urgent attention, otherwise we risk running out of fuel, or using dirty fuel".
Zerka defines the "European mood" as a sense of belonging to a common space, sharing a common future and accepting common values that he identifies as universalism, equality and secularism - and argues that these are increasingly contested.
Despite a year of wars and elections, the report - based on data analysis and research by social and political scientists across Europe, the third of its kind - says polls consistently show large numbers of citizens in almost every EU member state continue to trust the bloc, are optimistic about its future and feel connected to it.
It said strong pro-European sentiment was also demonstrated by the relatively high turnout of 51 percent in this year's European Parliament (EP) elections, as well as the fact that the vast majority of 27 national governments still have pro-European views and policies.
However, it said a growing number of people feel "disconnected", "disillusioned" or "disinterested" with the EU, especially people of color and Muslims, people in Central and Eastern Europe and young voters who think the EU is "too white ”, “too western” or “too boomer”.
Europeans of color have been exposed to a huge increase in xenophobic narratives since Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, the report said, with Muslims often feeling alienated by many governments' support for Israel.
Victories by far-right parties in European elections in France, Italy, Belgium, Austria and Hungary, as well as strong results in the Netherlands and Germany, have also fueled a surge in anti-immigrant rhetoric.
A growing number of people feel "disconnected", "disappointed" or "disinterested" in the EU, especially people of color and Muslims, people in Central and Eastern Europe and young voters who think the EU is "too white", "too western". ” or “too boomer”
The report cited the debate in Germany over the far-right's plan to deport asylum seekers and German citizens of foreign origin, the use of anti-Muslim language by parties such as the AfD and the Italian League, and the gradual introduction of a "xenophobic worldview" into the mainstream.
It also highlights the "limited diversity within the European institutions", pointing out that barely three per cent of MEPs are from racial and ethnic minorities, compared to 10 per cent of the EU population, and that many countries did not have a single non-white candidate.
"The 'Whiteness' of the EP stands out compared to ... the European Football Championship, the Summer Olympics or the Eurovision Song Contest," despite the ultra-right backlash against, for example, singer Aya Nakamura, Zerka wrote.
Lumpy pro-European sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe is also a growing concern, the report said, with turnout in European elections below 40 percent in seven of the region's 11 countries, reflecting waning enthusiasm.
Data suggest that some citizens of Central and Eastern Europe are disillusioned with the real benefits of EU membership, while election results in countries such as Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Croatia show a growing normalization of Euroscepticism.
Similarly, although polls consistently show that younger voters are more pro-European and more tolerant than older generations, young people have shown limited interest in European elections and, when they have voted, have often supported the radical right or left.
AfD took second place among young German voters in this year's European elections, while in Poland the radical right-wing Confederation won among young people with about 30 percent, and in France a third of young people voted for the National Rally (RN).
Pro-European politicians must "resist the temptation to remain silent on ... migration and diversity for short-term electoral gains", condemn xenophobia and explain to voters that certain attitudes can undermine social peace in diverse societies
Zerka says this reflects a feeling that they are not being represented by established political forces, often seen as "boomers", and warns that a sense of not having a voice could lead to young people being disengaged from politics or even rejecting the EU.
The report, entitled "Welcome to Barbieland" - an allusion to Barbie's discovery that her home is not the utopia she thought it was - concludes that the threat to the European project lies in the shift towards an "ethnic" understanding of Europeanness in which xenophobia, already popular in many capitals, flourishes unchecked in "Language, Policies and Perspectives of EU Policy".
Zerka said that in order to counter this challenge, the parties must urgently expand their voter base and membership. Countries could follow the example of Austria, Belgium and Germany by lowering the voting age, and politicians need to talk much more to young people.
Pro-European politicians must "resist the temptation to remain silent on ... migration and diversity for short-term electoral gains", condemn xenophobia and explain to voters that certain attitudes can undermine social peace in diverse societies.
And the civic identity of the EU must be strengthened by explaining the EU as a "force for positive change", meeting expectations not only on issues such as the economy, security and climate change, but also on issues related to migration, Zerka claims.
If a growing number of Europeans conclude that the EU does not represent them or reflect their concerns and values, pro-European sentiment could collapse completely, he warned. On the other hand, it could "bloom, but in a closed, xenophobic form".
Bonus video:
