The far-right Freedom Party (FPO) could win Austria's parliamentary elections for the first time on Sunday, capitalizing on voter concerns over migration, inflation, the war in Ukraine and other concerns following recent hard-right gains across Europe.
FPO leader Herbert Kikl, who is blunt, provocative and has one of the lowest approval ratings among leading Austrian politicians, wants to become Austria's new chancellor. The former interior minister, who heads the FPO from 2021, uses the term volkskanzler (people's chancellor), which the Nazis used for Adolf Hitler in the 1930s, although he rejects the comparison.
For the position at the head of the government, however, Kiklo will need a coalition partner for a majority in the lower house of parliament.
The latest public opinion polls indicate a close election race. The FPO, which is critical of Islam, has the support of 27 percent of voters, the conservative Austrian People's Party (OVP) of Chancellor Karl Nehmer 25 percent, and the center-left Social Democratic Party 21 percent.
However, Kikl has achieved a turnaround since the last elections in Austria in 2019. In June, the FPO narrowly won at the national level for the first time in the elections for the European Parliament, where other far-right European parties also achieved success.
In the 2019 elections, the FPO's support fell to 16,2 as the scandal brought down the government in which the party was a minor coalition partner. The then vice-chancellor and leader of the FPO Heinz-Kristijan Strahe resigned after the publication of a video in which he allegedly offered services to a Russian investor.
The far right has capitalized on voter dissatisfaction with high inflation, the war in Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as concerns about migration. The FPO, which was founded in the 1950s by a former Nazi, calls in its campaign program for the "remigration of uninvited foreigners" and the achievement of "homogeneity" of the nation through strict border control and the suspension of the right to asylum through "emergency laws".
Gernot Bauer, a journalist for the Austrian magazine Profil, says that the FPO under Kikl's leadership has moved further to the right because Kikl refuses to explicitly distance the party from the Identitarian Movement, a pan-European nationalist and ultra-right group, writes the Associated Press.
The FPO also advocates lifting sanctions on Russia, criticizes Western military aid to Ukraine and wants to withdraw from the European initiative Sky Shield, a project to build a European air defense system launched by Germany.
Kikl is a supporter of conspiracy theories, claiming that the antiparasitic agent "ivermectin" is effective against covid-19, as is former US President Donald Trump.
Andreas Babler, leader of the Social Democrats, the party that led many Austrian governments after World War II, ruled out ruling with the far right. Babler, who is also the mayor of Traiskirchen, where Austria's largest reception center for refugees is located, called Kikl "a threat to democracy."
Reuters writes that Kikl leaves a far more serious impression than predecessors like Strache and Jergo Haider.
"He is a very, very clear and very focused strategist, and as we see on a daily basis, he is very attack-oriented, even aggressive," political analyst Thomas Hofer said.
Numerous crises, from the pandemic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine to rising energy prices, have cost conservatives support
The popularity of Nehamer's OVP, which is currently in a coalition government with the Greens, has declined since 2019. During the campaign, Nahamer described the party, which has taken a strong stance on immigration in previous years, as a "strong center" that will guarantee stability in times of multiple crises. However, it was precisely these crises, from the pandemic to the Russian invasion of Ukraine to the rise in energy prices, that cost the conservatives support, according to Austrian political scientist Peter Filtzmeier.
Under their leadership, inflation in Austria rose to an average of 4,2 percent over the previous 12 months, above the EU average.
The government also caused great dissatisfaction among citizens when in 2022 it became the first European country to introduce a mandatory vaccine against the corona virus. That decision was revoked a few months later without even coming into force.
Also, Nehamer is the third chancellor since the previous elections, since Sebastijan Kurc resigned in 2021 due to a corruption investigation.
Filcmajer believes that the recent floods that hit Austria and other countries in Central Europe brought the topic of the environment back into the electoral debate and helped Nehamer narrow the gap between his party and the FPO a bit, presenting himself as a "crisis manager".
AP points out that the OVP is the ultra-right's only path to power.
Nehamer has repeatedly rejected the possibility of joining the government led by Kikl, an ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, describing him as an extremist threat to security and democracy. But he did not rule out a coalition with the FPO, which would mean that Kikl would have to give up his position in the government.
The probability that Kikl will agree to such an agreement if he wins the elections is very small, Filtzmeier assessed.
However, if OVP wins, in his opinion, a coalition between the two parties would be possible. The most likely second option would be an alliance of the OVP, the Social Democrats and possibly the liberal party Neos.
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