Europe, Great Britain and Ukraine urgently need to protect their collective security from Donald Trump by establishing a "NATO bank" to help finance defense, suggests an expert report.
Europeans must face the reality that if Trump wins the US presidential election next month, he could quickly cut US military spending in Europe, try to impose a peace deal on Ukraine that would leave part of its territory under Russian control, and even withdraw from NATO, according to a report by British and German think tanks.
Such steps would have huge consequences for intelligence sharing and the viability of Article 5, NATO's key collective self-defence clause, according to a report published yesterday, The Guardian reported.
"Trump's first term has been marked by withdrawal from agreements, tariffs on allies and praise at the expense of authoritarian governments. European leaders must practically and preemptively strengthen European defense, security and resilience to Trump's second presidential term," said Sam Goodman, one of the authors of the report.
The report was prepared by the New Diplomacy Project, which is advised by Sir David Manning, the former British ambassador in Washington, and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which is affiliated with the Social Democratic Party of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. It was published ahead of today's meeting in London between the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and British Foreign Minister David Lammy.
Trump said that if he wins, he will tell Ukraine that it must reach an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. There are only three months left to convince him that the price of peace the Kremlin is likely to demand is unacceptable, the report said.
In order to mitigate the impact of Trump's second term, NATO members should support the establishment of an allied multilateral credit institution, in the practice of NATO Bank, it is stated. It could "save countries millions on essential equipment purchases, offer low interest rates on loans to alliance members and introduce a new line of financing with longer repayment terms. The bank would be funded by initial subscriptions from NATO members in exchange for authorized capital."
The UK should also prepare to sign or advance security deals with Germany, the EU and France, the report said. The agreements could cover the development of missile defense systems, aerial refueling, aircraft maintenance, airlift capabilities and joint cyber capabilities. It also proposes a British guarantee for intelligence sharing from the Five Eyes alliance, which includes the US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
The report also urges leaders to actively consider measures to protect Ukraine if Trump is re-elected
According to the report, other threats that a Trump victory could bring include a weakening of diplomatic communication between the US and Europe, the withdrawal of US troops and military assets from Europe, and the widespread imposition of tariffs that could lead to the collapse of the World Trade Organization.
The authors predict that Trump's Ukraine peace plan is likely to fail because Russia wants more than Trump realizes, and it may be too difficult for him to ignore resistance to a perceived capitulation.
One of the report's authors, Jade Meglin of the New Diplomacy Project, said: "The British government and European leaders should actively consider measures now to pre-emptively support Ukraine in the event that Trump is re-elected in November.
"While Trump will have limited political room for maneuver regarding Ukraine policy when it comes to providing lethal aid, strategic ambiguity and diplomatic influence, he could try to undermine the NATO alliance and use his 'peace plan' to limit further lethal aid to Ukraine ".
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