Germany divided over AfD ban

In the September elections in three German eastern states, the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) became stronger than ever. The party fared best in Thuringia and Saxony, i.e. precisely in the provinces where the AfD branches are the most radical and where the Office for the Protection of the Constitutional Order considers these branches to be "proven right-wing extremists".

AfD voters don't mind at all. "I don't care that some of the AfD are classified as right-wing extremists, as long as they deal with the right issues," declared 84 percent of that party's voters in the latest public opinion survey "German Trend" (Deutschlandtrend), which regularly, by order of the public service of ARD, implemented by the Infratest-dimap institute. This representative survey was conducted in the period from October 7 to 9.

Prohibition proposal from the Bundestag

However, overall, two-thirds of German citizens believe that a strong AfD threatens democracy and the rule of law in the country. Many politicians are of the same opinion. But when it comes to how best to fight the AfD, opinions differ.

Recently, a cross-party group of deputies gathered in the Bundestag to initiate the process of banning the AfD before the Federal Constitutional Court. That proposal, however, is very problematic. The Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) and the newly founded leftist Alliance Sara Wagenknecht (BSW) are completely against such an intention. The majority of supporters of the ban are among the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens. And if citizens are asked, a similar, divided picture is obtained.

For almost half of German citizens (46 percent), the ban procedure would not be appropriate at the moment, but roughly the same number would support it (42 percent). The initiation of the procedure for the ban finds majority support only among the supporters of the SPD (58 to 32 percent) and the Greens (69:25). While approval and rejection among CDU/CSU Christian Democratic voters (46:46) is balanced, supporters of the BSW – which, although declared left-wing, thematically coincides with the AfD on many issues – are mostly against the ban (31:55).

Doubts about the chancellor candidates

The planned elections for the 21st convocation of the German parliament, the Bundestag, will be held in the fall of 2025. As things currently stand, the CDU/CSU will go into the election campaign with CDU President Friedrich Merz as the chancellor candidate, the Greens want to go into the election campaign with the main candidate Robert Habek, and the AfD with party co-president Alice Weidel. The ruling SPD is still pinning its hopes on Chancellor Olaf Scholz. However, respondents in the survey do not believe that any of these candidates could be a good chancellor.

For the current prime minister, Solac, only 22 percent consider him to be a good chancellor. But the expectations of his possible opponents are also low or only slightly higher: one in four respondents (26 percent) can currently imagine Friedrich Merz as a good chancellor, one in five Robert Habeck (21 percent) and only one in ten Alice Weidel (11 percent ).

The bad rating for the chancellor of the SPD and the low expectations of the possible green chancellor, Habek, who together with the FDP form the ruling coalition at the federal level, are a continuation of the trend of great dissatisfaction with the effects of the current government in Berlin, due to the party's colors (red-yellow-green ) called the "traffic light coalition". Nineteen percent of German citizens (which is a slight increase of three percent compared to the previous month) positively evaluate the federal coalition, and 79 percent are still dissatisfied with it.

If there were parliamentary elections this Sunday...

The state of the ruling coalition is so bad that many no longer rule out the possibility of early elections for the Bundestag. That is why it is interesting to look at the main question of that survey: if the federal parliamentary elections were this Sunday, the ruling coalition would no longer have a majority. The FDP would no longer even pass the threshold for entry into the Bundestag.

Even if the Christian Democrats, CDU/CSU, lost a little in popularity compared to the previous month, they are currently supported by the most voters: 31 percent, a ratio of two percent less than last month. The second strongest party would be the AfD with an unchanged 17 percent, followed immediately by the SPD with 16 percent (+1). The Greens would win 13 percent (+2).

The Liberals (FDP) would currently have to settle for only three percent (-1), which is the lowest value for that party since February 2015. The Left Party would have to rely on winning the so-called direct mandates, because only they would enable her eventual entry into the Bundestag, since with the current three percent even she would not exceed the threshold of five percent. BSW is still supported by eight percent of citizens, which is enough to enter the parliament.

American elections: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

The survey "German Trend" deals not only with domestic but also with international politics. For the last time on the eve of the 60th US presidential election, pollsters asked the question of who Germans would prefer to see in the White House.

The majority of Germans (78 percent) still trust the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris more. Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump is supported by only eight percent. Such a relationship is more or less the same in all groups of voters. The exception is AfD voters, where support for both candidates is roughly the same.

A reliable partner for Germany

The USA's reputation in Germany is better at the end of US President Joseph Biden's term than at the end of the Trump era. Slightly more than half (54 percent) currently perceive the USA as a reliable partner of Germany.

France still enjoys a much higher reputation among Germans than the US (82 percent). In contrast, today 84 percent of German citizens view Russia with deep distrust – both in the west and in the east of the country.

However, on the question to what extent Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia, can be considered a partner of Germany, citizens are quite divided (40 to 45 percent). At the same time, if we take a look at the other current major global conflict, the majority of respondents still have difficulty seeing Israel as a foreign policy partner that deserves trust (27:55 percent).

The pollsters asked the 35 percent of German citizens who do not see the USA as a reliable partner of Germany for the reasons: 23 percent stated that the USA unilaterally represents its national interests in the world, 16 percent cited Donald Trump as the reason, nine percent believed that the USA would interfered in German and European affairs, and eight percent point to American military interventions around the world.

Disputed stationing of US medium-range weapons

The German and American leadership announced that they intend to station new American medium-range missiles, as well as cruise missiles, again on the territory of FR Germany. Those missiles can reach Russia. How do citizens view that plan?

Opinions are divided. Forty percent of Germans think that the deployment is correct, 45 percent that it is wrong. Although such stationing would be possible only in the territory of the former West Germany, the most criticism comes from the East of Germany. There, 57 percent of respondents oppose those plans. In the area of ​​the former West Germany, the number of respondents in favor and against is roughly equal (44:41).

A look at the party supporters shows that about half of supporters of the Christian Democrats (55 percent), SPD (50 percent) and the Greens (49 percent) support the plans for stationing. Those plans, however, are opposed by the majority of supporters of AfD (26:62 percent) and BSW (25:69), which also shows the thematic affinity of these parties of the right and left spectrum.