Nervousness in Europe before the US elections

Many Europeans do not have fond memories of Donald Trump's presidency. In France, the initially friendly relations between President Macron and his American counterpart cooled very quickly

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Republican candidate for president of the USA: Donald Trump, Photo: Reuters
Republican candidate for president of the USA: Donald Trump, Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Europe is preparing for the potential return of former President Donald Trump to power, while not yet knowing much about the policies of his Democratic rival, current Vice President Kamala Harris.

Many Europeans believe that the stakes are extremely high in this tense American election: from NATO and the transatlantic alliance, to Russia's war against Ukraine, to trade relations and the future of European democracies themselves.

Many Europeans do not have fond memories of Donald Trump's presidency. In France, the initially friendly relations between President Macron and his American counterpart cooled very quickly.

Tensions between Europe and the US have been rising over trade, Iran and climate change, as well as over Turkey's accession to NATO, which some Europeans see as a "service for a service" principle.

If returned to power, Trump says he will impose high tariffs on Europeans, insist on talks to end Russia's war in Ukraine and suspend aid to Kiev - a position strongly opposed by most European leaders.

“There is a sense that he is now older, more malicious, more radical and more dangerous. Of course, the question of the future of Europe and NATO arises, because of its protection and solidarity in relation to Russia," says French political analyst Nicole Baccaran.

European Union leaders are reportedly already plotting ways to mitigate the potential impact of Trump's second term in the White House. However, across Europe, people are worried.

"Trump scares us because he expresses hatred, lies and we have the feeling that he has the attitude of a despot, a dictator," says French pensioner Herve Vilmon.

Analysts say Europeans are increasingly rooting for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, who they hope will continue the strong transatlantic ties fostered by incumbent President Joseph Biden.

Analysts, including Žesin Weber from the German Marshall Fund, predict that those ties will weaken regardless of who comes to the White House, as the priorities of the Americans change.

"I think a win for Harris would cause a lot of relief in Europe. We saw that Harris did not define the policy in detail during the campaign, especially foreign policy, so that for many Europeans it remains unknown to a certain extent".

In the meantime, Trump can still count on some strong fans in Europe. Viktor Orbán, Hungary's prime minister, says he will open the champagne if Trump wins.

Trump's nationalist campaign messages and hard-line approach to immigration also resonate with Europe's populist, right-wing parties.

"I'm worried about democracy, because if Trump wins these elections, there will be a domino effect in Europe," says Carolina Santo, a Portuguese living in Paris.

Some analysts believe a Trump victory would shake Europe and prompt it to bolster its own military and economic defenses — a move critics say should have been pulled years ago.

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