Too late to change the course of the war

Washington's decision to allow Kiev to use American weapons for attacks deep into Russian territory is unlikely to significantly change the situation on the front where Ukraine is suffering losses

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Zelensky and Biden in the Oval Office in the White House in September 2023, Photo: REUTERS
Zelensky and Biden in the Oval Office in the White House in September 2023, Photo: REUTERS
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

A decision by the United States to authorize long-range strikes in Ukraine could help Kiev defend its stronghold in Russia's Kursk region, but it may come too late to change the course of the war, analysts told Reuters.

Two months before leaving office, US President Joe Biden lifted some of the restrictions that prevented Kiev from using US weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory, a significant policy shift.

Military analysts have assessed that the impact on the front, where Ukraine has been suffering losses for months, will depend on which restrictions remain in place. However, while the change in policy may strengthen the Kursk operation, it is unlikely to significantly change the overall situation.

Ukraine weapons graphics
photo: Graphic News

"The decision comes late, and like other similar decisions, it may be too late to significantly change the course of the war," said Michael Coffman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

"Long-range attacks have always been only part of the puzzle, and often in this war too much was expected of them."

Also, it is not possible to know how long the new policy will last. The decision was criticized by Richard Grenell, one of the closest foreign policy advisers to the newly elected President Donald Trump, who will replace Joe Biden on January 20. Trump has been criticizing the extent of US aid to Kiev for a long time and has promised to end the war quickly, although he has not specified how.

Ukraine lobbied for this change for months, arguing that the inability to hit targets inside Russia, particularly military bases with warplanes participating in attacks on Ukraine, was a serious disadvantage.

Russian forces, which have been on the offensive for more than a year, are advancing at their fastest pace since 2022 in eastern Ukraine and putting pressure on the northeast and southeast of the country.

Russia claims that Ukraine cannot fire missiles at targets inside Russia without direct help from NATO allies, calling it a significant escalation.

The Kremlin announced yesterday that Russia would respond to what it called an ill-advised decision by the Biden administration.

"It is clear that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps to continue adding fuel to the fire and provoking tensions around this conflict," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Putin changed Russia's nuclear doctrine so that any conventional attack on Russia with the help of a nuclear force can be considered a joint attack on Russia.

Ukrainian soldiers in Donetsk
Ukrainian soldiers in Donetskphoto: REUTERS

Sources cited by The New York Times and Reuters said the US decision was partly in response to reports of North Korean troops arriving in Kursk to help repel the Ukrainian offensive. US Deputy National Security Adviser John Feiner said Russia escalated the conflict by "engaging the forces of a foreign state on its own territory." Russian officials say they have the right to deploy any forces within Russia's borders.

The first Ukrainian attacks could follow in the next few days and will probably be carried out by ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 306 kilometers, according to Reuters. A central European defense official told the British agency that the strikes could give Kiev a better chance of defending itself against airstrikes, but were unlikely to decisively turn the conflict in Ukraine's favor.

Russia has already moved much of its air force out of range of Western weapons in Ukraine, the official said.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, Gabrielius Landsbergis, said that it is still early to celebrate: "I am not opening the champagne yet", because it is not known how many missiles the Ukrainians have and whether there are enough of them to significantly affect the situation on the front.

Not all European leaders welcomed the decision of the outgoing administration in Washington. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico condemned the US move. "This is an unprecedented escalation of tensions, a decision that destroys hopes for the start of any peace negotiations and an end to mutual killing of Slavs in Ukraine," Fico said in a statement.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijarto said that it is "incredibly dangerous" to allow Ukraine to use weapons from NATO member countries for long-range attacks on Russia.

The decision to authorize the strikes only after months of Ukrainian lobbying follows a pattern that has been repeated throughout the war, as the Biden administration has sought to balance support for Ukraine with fears of an escalating conflict.

Previously, Washington hesitated for months before approving the delivery of long-range missiles, tanks and aircraft to Ukraine.

Some military analysts believe such delays have allowed Moscow to recover from early setbacks and strengthen defenses in occupied territories, which contributed to the failure of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive last year.

The possibility of a missile attack on Russian territory could have the most direct impact in Kursk, where Ukraine is seeking to retain the foothold it gained after its first major attack across the border in August. Russian territory could serve as a bargaining chip after Trump takes over the White House.

Kiev claims Russia has amassed 50.000 troops to try to retake territory in Kursk, and has deployed 11.000 North Koreans, some of whom are said to be taking part in the fighting

“ATACMS missiles can threaten very valuable Russian and North Korean targets. This would help Ukrainian forces to defend the Kursk stronghold, which is under pressure," said Michael Kofman.

Kyiv-based military analyst Serhiy Kuzan said there are a number of targets in Russia up to 500 km from Ukraine that Ukrainian forces consider priorities, but many of them would still be beyond the range of ATACMS missiles.

France and Britain have not specified whether they will follow the Americans and allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, which have a range of 250 km. Germany announced yesterday that it stands by its decision not to deliver long-range weapons to Kiev.

Yesterday on the streets of Kyiv, the general feeling was that the decision would help, but that it came too late.

"This was supposed to be used as a preventive measure, or as a sharp reaction in February or March 2022. Now it doesn't play a big role," Olga Korovyachuk, 21, told Reuters.

On the other hand, some Russians criticized the US move.

"We need to fight back," said a 71-year-old man who identified himself only as Alexander. "The centers that control these missiles and the American bases around NATO should also be hit."

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