The Russian army is bypassing Pokrovsk from the south, but experts believe that without capturing that city in eastern Ukraine, it is unlikely that Russian forces will be able to advance towards the city of a million people on the Dnieper. What is the goal?
Since August 2024, there has been a discussion in the media and in expert circles about what would happen if Russian forces captured Pokrovsk in Ukraine. At that time, Russian troops approached an important transport hub in the west of Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces have so far managed to stop the Russian advance, with the exception of the southern part of that front, where the Russians bypassed Pokrovsk.
The media speculates that the Russians are only temporarily avoiding street fighting in Pokrovskoe in order to advance further into the Dnipropetrovsk region. Is this possible and how quickly can the Russians reach the city of Dnipro?
Why do Russians bypass Pokrovsk?
“It is unlikely that they will leave Pokrovsk behind and move in another direction,” says Viktor Tregubov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Horitsy regiment. “That would be illogical and risky for them.” He expects that Russian forces will shift the focus of their operations to the north of Donetsk region, towards the cities of Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which are under Kiev control.
Tregubov says this would fit the stated goals of the Russian Federation, which has already incorporated the Donetsk region into its constitution as its territory by virtue of the annexation. According to Ukrainian military experts, Russian forces have bypassed Pokrovsk from the south to cut off the Ukrainian army's logistical routes, and do not intend to continue towards the Dnieper.
Markus Reisner, an Austrian military expert and colonel in the Austrian army, also believes that the Russian army is now not interested in capturing new settlements, but in cutting off the supply routes of Ukrainian forces. "Purely militarily, in operational terms, it makes more sense for Russia not to go further west," he said.
The Russians could repeat their failed push southward near Izyum in the Kharkiv region, which would increase pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. Reisner believes that the Ukrainians are currently holding their own there, but that Russian advances elsewhere, particularly the capture of Kurakhove in early January, have freed up Russian units to redeploy to the Pokrovskoye area.
He points out that the fighting for Pokrovsk is different from that for other cities. So far, there has been no massive use of artillery, as in Bakhmut, which the Russians captured in the spring of 2023. “I think the Russians are trying to hold Pokrovsk and then take it with as little destruction as possible,” Reisner says. He explains that the Russians see Pokrovsk as “an important transport hub for advancing west, northwest and north.” He adds that behind the Russians “lies a devastated country, with almost no useful infrastructure.”
When will Pavlograd be threatened?
If Russian forces were to move from Pokrovskoye to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, the first major city on the way would be Pavlograd. Yuri Butusov, editor-in-chief of Censor.net and a military expert who was also an advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, believes that there will be no rapid Russian advance, but warns that if Russian forces are not stopped, Pavlograd could be under threat within a year and a half.
Butusov recalls that it took the Russians half a year to cover the 40-kilometer distance from Avdiivka, which they captured early last year, to Pokrovsk. From Pokrovsk to Pavlograd, the distance is more than double. Butusov says that it is “too early to talk about Pavlograd,” although he believes that the situation in the Dnipropetrovsk region is “extremely dangerous.”
Dmytro Pavlov, a representative of the local government in Pavlograd, says: “Reports about the situation around Pavlograd are causing anxiety, but Pavlograd and district institutions are working efficiently.” He says that 100 people live in the city, and more than 000 in the wider region. Among them are those expelled from Donetsk and other areas of eastern Ukraine where fighting is taking place.
East of the city is the area where the DTEK concern has ten mines. In addition, there is a chemical industry, explosives and ammunition production. During the Soviet Union, fuel for ballistic nuclear missiles was obtained here, which were produced at the Yuzhmash plant. It was these plants that Russia attacked in late 2024 with the Orešnik medium-range ballistic missile. And from Pavlograd to the city of Dnieper is about 75 kilometers.
The importance of the city of Dnieper
With almost a million inhabitants, Dnipro is the fourth largest city in Ukraine after Kiev, Kharkiv and Odessa. It is one of the largest industrial centers. After the outbreak of the conflict in Donbas in 2014, Dnipro became, along with Kharkiv, an important supply center for Ukrainian forces.
Military expert and journalist Butusov emphasizes that Russia wants to “destroy Ukraine's defense potential.” He believes that from Pokrovsk, Russian forces could move in different directions and intensify attacks where Ukraine's military formations are weakest.
Reisner says the speed of the Russian advance towards the Dnieper will depend on whether Ukraine can build strong fortified positions and has reserve troops at its disposal. He notes that problems have arisen on other parts of the front, forcing Ukraine to withdraw.
But the situation is also difficult for the Russians. “The Russians’ dilemma is that their flanks are getting weaker the further they push in a direction, and their supply lines are longer. That’s what broke their backs at the beginning of the war,” says Reisner. He likened the Russian army’s tactics to beads on a chain. “They’re trying to string beads one on top of the other and rely on the last one,” says the military expert, noting that this is exactly what is seen in Pokrovskoye.
Bonus video:
