"No 'foreigners' will overthrow Vučić; on the contrary, Berlin and Brussels fatally see him as an 'anchor of stability' in the region," says German political scientist Alexander Rotert.
In an article published by the Berliner Zeitung, Rotert writes about Serbia, focusing in particular on lithium in the Jadra Valley, which is supposed to serve the German automotive industry – at least according to the plans of the Serbian authorities and Rio Tinto. Alexander Rotert has been involved in the former Yugoslavia for decades, and has been part of various diplomatic missions of the UN, OSCE, EU…
At the beginning of the text, the author states that the Register of Lobbyists maintained by the German Bundestag shows that the consulting firm of former Green Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer has Rio Tinto as a client, and that the Ministry of Economy is run by the German Greens.
It was the State Secretary of that Ministry, Franciska Brantner, who played an important role in the deal with Serbia. Brantner later became co-chair of the Greens.
Rotert recalls a meeting in July last year in Belgrade, when Chancellor Olaf Scholz was also there.
No criticism from Berlin
"Vučić's praise for Brantner, which was very operationally engaged, was striking. He doesn't seem to care that lithium extraction can cause great damage to the environment," the article in the Berliner Zeitung says.
"Neither Scholz nor Brantner consulted the project's opponents. And neither of them criticized the increasingly authoritarian behavior of the Vučić regime at home, and its increasingly aggressive behavior abroad," writes Rotert, assessing:
"It is scandalous how one of Europe's last autocrats is being supported and how mass protests are being ignored."
According to Rottert, lithium was given primacy "even though Serbia does not comply with EU sanctions against Russia," making it "Moscow's economic lifeline in Europe."
Lithium deal – a hit at the right time
After making this claim, the author further states that Serbia is "in the process of preparing" a law "on foreign agents" modeled after Moscow. The author is clearly referring to Aleksandar Vulin's proposals, after which Vučić denied that such a law would be passed.
The article also recalls the revelation that Serbian authorities are using spyware against activists and journalists, that some critics are the target of death threats, and that, after the collapse of a canopy in Novi Sad, "protests against pervasive corruption and nepotism have intensified."
"The lithium deal, which was instigated by Šolc and implemented by Brantner, was, in this respect, a timely achievement for Vučić's regime," the political scientist assesses.
Rottert adds that in December, Scholz hosted Vučić, on the same day that Vučić reiterated that he was being overthrown in Serbia from the outside, from the West, and that he would not serve foreigners.
"It's strange when he, who receives billions of euros in support from the EU and is courted in Berlin like few others, gets involved in these conspiracy theories," says Rotert.
"No 'foreigners' will overthrow Vučić; on the contrary, Berlin and Brussels fatally see him as an 'anchor of stability' in the region. But its citizens are fed up with living in one of the last European autocracies," Rotert believes.
"They can do whatever they want"
The author claims that Belgrade was "at least indirectly" involved in multiple attacks on KFOR and Kosovo security forces during 2022 and 2023, and that it is "continuously destabilizing Bosnia."
"Despite everything, the Chancellor's office - for the love of Vučić - has been blocking Kosovo's admission to the Council of Europe since May 2024," Rotert said. Berlin, by the way, explained this blockade by the fact that Pristina has not yet formed the Union of Serbian Municipalities, which was signed more than a decade ago.
Another indicator for Rotert is the participation of a large delegation of the Serbian government in the “unconstitutional paramilitary parade” marking January 9th as Republika Srpska Day.
He recalls that on that day in 1992, convicted war criminal Radovan Karadžić founded the Republika Srpska "and thus the cornerstone of the war in Bosnia", and that the current president of the entity, Milorad Dodik, is pursuing a plan of secession and unification with Serbia.
Citing some warnings from Germany and Kosovo, Rotert writes: "Vučić and Dodik know they can do whatever they want, as long as the lithium project lasts," and that the lack of solidarity with Serbian civil society is a "historical mistake."
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