The Baltic states are cutting ties to Russia's power grid, which dates back to the 1950s, and plan to further integrate with the European Union. The decision follows suspicions of sabotage of undersea cables, which has accelerated efforts to strengthen regional security.
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania disconnected from the common IPS/UPS network early this morning and, if tests are successful, will synchronize with the EU electricity grid tomorrow.
Plans to separate from the Russian grid, which had been under consideration for decades, were actualized after Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014.
These three countries have invested almost €2018 billion since 1,6, mostly using EU funds, to modernize their electricity networks and prepare for this move.
For Russia, this separation means that its exclave of Kaliningrad, located between Lithuania, Poland and the Baltic Sea, will be cut off from the main Russian grid and will have to maintain its own electricity system.
Moscow was also forced to invest 100 billion rubles ($1,03 billion) in preparations, including the construction of several gas-fired power plants.
"We have taken all measures to ensure the uninterrupted and reliable operation of our power system," a Kremlin spokesman said.
These countries have long relied on Russia to control frequencies and stabilize their power grids, thus avoiding power outages.
However, after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, these countries took the first major step towards energy integration with the EU by ceasing electricity purchases from Russia.
"Separating from Russia does not make us vulnerable. On the contrary, it makes us safer," Lithuanian Energy Minister Žigimantas Vaičijunas told Reuters.
"At times like these, threats do not subside. On the contrary, they should be expected. We are preparing for all possible scenarios, including the most radical ones. We have plans to manage every risk."
The Baltic Sea region is on high alert after power cables, telecommunications links and gas pipelines between the Baltic and Sweden or Finland were damaged. All of the damage is believed to have been caused by ships dragging anchors on the seabed, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia denies involvement.
Separation from Russia makes the Baltics even more dependent on the undersea connections between them.
"Infrastructure damage is the main concern. That's where the risks lie and that's what could be the worst-case scenario," said ICIS analyst Stefan Konstantinov.
The Baltics' connections to the Russian grid, dating back to 1956, meant that Russia stabilized and supported their shared electricity system and that, when needed, they could buy electricity from Russian coal- or gas-fired power plants. That safety net will no longer exist.
For the EU, it also means that its grid will have to absorb potential disruptions in the Baltic, which still relies on electricity imports via three undersea links to Sweden and Finland, as well as an overland link to Poland.
“The connection between Poland and Lithuania is absolutely crucial ... we are protecting it at all costs,” a spokesman for Polish grid operator PSE told Reuters. “A few years ago we were only worried about trees falling on power lines. After the suspicious damage to the undersea cables, everything is different.”
Poland and the Baltic states have deployed naval forces, elite police units, patrol boats and helicopters to boost security. The Lithuanian army has begun exercises to protect land links with Poland.
The NATO military alliance has increased its presence with frigates, aircraft and naval drones.
Damage to both remaining undersea cables would force the Baltics to restart aging and expensive gas and shale power plants, which have largely been out of service for years. Analysts say that could send electricity prices soaring to levels not seen since the invasion of Ukraine, when energy prices soared.
Lithuanian grid operator Litgrid said all major Baltic power plants would have to be in operation if the undersea connections were to be disconnected. That could lead to a jump in baseload electricity prices to 200-500 euros per megawatt-hour, compared to the current 70-100 euros, according to estimates by energy companies and analysts.
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