After the Russian invasion in 2022, Ukraine's otherwise turbulent political life was silenced under a state of war. However, there are growing indications that political activity is picking up again, as the United States seeks to end the war with Russia as soon as possible.
Over the past week, a Ukrainian political bloc accused President Volodymyr Zelensky's team of being more concerned with elections than war, the mayor of Kiev said that an official appointed by the president was sabotaging his work, and opposition politicians have been increasingly traveling abroad.
"It's all because of Trump, the expectations that there will be negotiations... Activity has increased, it's obvious that there is greater internal political nervousness," said Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst in Kiev.
The feeling that politics is returning to the stage could also be fueled by news that US President Donald Trump's team wants Kiev to hold presidential elections by the end of the year, especially if a ceasefire agreement can be reached with Moscow.
Petro Poroshenko, a former president and leading opposition figure, has been seen shaking hands with numerous foreign officials in recent weeks.
He denies it has anything to do with the elections, arguing that they would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin and destabilize Ukraine at a dangerous time.
"Our task is to win the war," Poroshenko told Reuters.
However, his European Solidarity party accused Zelensky of trying to exclude him from parliament and focusing on "the upcoming elections instead of waging war."
Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has become more visible recently, meeting with European Union officials abroad and protesting the detention of a general in Ukraine over a failed defense operation in May last year.
Last week, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, a potential presidential candidate, accused Zelensky's entourage of political intrigue, saying that the city's military administrator, appointed by the president, was deliberately undermining the work of his civilian administration.
Asked for comment, Zelensky's team referred reporters to the city administrator, who dismissed Klitschko's accusations as unfounded.
Fesenko said that certain political groups are gathering, recruiting activists and preparing election campaigns. He added that he has not noticed such activity in Zelensky's camp and that politicians are probably running for their lives if they think elections are inevitable.
"In my opinion, this is a false start," he said.
A false excuse?
US officials say no policy decisions have been made yet and their strategy toward Ukraine is still evolving. Ukrainian politicians, both from the ruling bloc and the opposition, believe that elections before the end of the war could jeopardize national unity.
There are also logistical challenges.
Serhiy Dubovik, deputy head of Ukraine's Central Election Commission, told Reuters that it would take at least four to six months to prepare the conditions for the start of the election campaign, given the displacement of voters and the massive destruction.
Millions of Ukrainians still live abroad, millions are internally displaced by the war, a fifth of Ukraine's territory is occupied, and frontline areas are devastated.
Zelensky said the elections would be held immediately after the lifting of martial law, which was declared to give the state extraordinary powers to fight Russia. Ukrainian law specifically prohibits holding elections during a state of war.
Zelensky, whose five-year term expired last May, has not said whether he will run again. He says it is not a priority for him.
Putin, who has been in power for 25 years, claims that Zelensky is not a legitimate leader and is in no position to negotiate because elections have not been held.
In Ukraine, even those who disapprove of Zelensky's performance so far largely see him as a legitimate leader, said Anton Khrushchev, director of the Kiev-based KIIS public opinion research center.
A Ukrainian official told Reuters that Putin was trying to create a false pretext to avoid negotiations. Ukraine wants to hold elections, but that is impossible during a general war, the official said.
According to opinion polls, public trust in Zelensky remains above 50%, although it has declined compared to the period immediately following the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, when it exceeded 90% as Ukrainians rallied around the flag.
For some observers, the key issue not being discussed is Valery Zaluzhny, who led the armed forces for two years after the invasion, before being removed and appointed ambassador to London.
Some MPs have questioned whether Zaluzhni could be associated with an existing political force and run for president.
The Ukrainian Embassy in London did not respond to a written request for comment.
Zaluzhny has not publicly expressed political ambitions, but polls suggest he is popular. His image is visible throughout Kiev's bookstores, where thousands of copies of his new book, "My War," have already been sold.
Hrušecki said it is difficult to assess the political leanings of the public during a war, especially when it is not known who would run in the elections. Polls show that the public is largely against holding elections while the war is ongoing, he added.
"For most, the priority is to achieve success in the war and then hold elections," he said.
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