US President Donald Trump is sending his deputy, J.D. Vance, to the Munich Security Conference. For Europeans, this year's summit in the Bavarian capital could be an awkward gathering.
The traditionally close relationship between the United States and Europe has characterized the Munich Security Conference for decades. Regardless of some differences of opinion, the basis on which this relationship rested was unbreakable. The two sides cooperated, they respected each other.
But with Donald Trump's return to the White House, even what seemed fairly stable for decades is no longer certain. The conference starting this Friday, known internationally as the Munich Security Conference (MSC), is therefore considered a litmus test for the current state of transatlantic relations.
New friction between the US and its allies?
It is clear that in the first weeks of Trump's second presidential term, a new wind is blowing from Washington: "America first," Trump's motto, which he adheres to even when his policies are at the expense of allies. These frictions could mark some of the debates at the elegant Munich hotel "Bayerischer Hof," where politicians, military officials and experts from around the world are meeting from February 14 to 16.
Around 60 heads of state and government are expected to attend the Munich conference. The gathering is considered the most important global forum for security policy issues. From the ranks of the new US administration, the arrival in Bavaria has been confirmed by, in addition to Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but not by the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. In addition, as announced by MCS head Christoph Heusgen, one of the largest delegations from the US Congress to ever attend a conference in Munich is expected. Among the guests is the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Harsher tones between the US and Europe
The Munich Security Conference is an informal meeting where no conclusions are adopted. That is why an open exchange of arguments is fostered there, and conflicts are not swept under the rug.
Donald Trump has already begun to adopt a new, harsher tone in transatlantic relations. The official Munich Security Report, published ahead of the conference, quotes the US president's campaign statement that European nations were exploiting the US on trade and within NATO. Trump's threat to the Europeans is also reported: "If you don't pay, we won't protect you."
Trump is bothered by the fact that some European NATO partners are investing too little in equipping their military forces. He has also criticized Germany on this issue on several occasions. Washington has so far borne the lion's share of NATO's costs and has consistently offered Europe reliable military protection.
That is no longer the case: Trump is demanding that allies spend five percent of their GDP on defense. Germany is struggling to spend two percent, which has since become the (minimum) standard in the Alliance.
And that Republican Trump is quite capable of rigorously withdrawing American money from organizations operating internationally, he has already proven it. Judging by the statements from the Munich Conference Report, Trump's camp justified this by saying that even a world superpower like the USA has only limited resources, that is, that it should use these resources for the benefit of its country. The concept of "limited resources" is indeed one of the central premises of the foreign policy thinking of American Republicans, the MSC report states.
Outlines of a peace plan for Ukraine?
This could have a negative impact on aid to Ukraine, where the US has been the leading country on this issue. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump's envoy for Ukraine, Kate Kellogg, will certainly have plenty to talk about. The two are also expected in Munich.
Ahead of the conference, rumors began to spread that Kellogg might present the Trump administration's plan to end the war in Ukraine in Munich. When asked about this, Conference head Heusgen offered a reserved answer: "We hope that Munich will be used. And we see certain indications that there could be progress on the issue of peace in Ukraine as well."
Heusgen expressed hope that a peace plan could take shape in Munich. The territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine must be guaranteed, the German diplomat stressed. Heusgen earlier in his career was a foreign policy advisor to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the German ambassador to the United Nations in New York.
However, representatives of the Russian government have not been invited to the MSC. The basis for sending invitations is “readiness for dialogue,” Heusgen emphasizes, “and as long as President Putin does not recognize the government in Kiev, does not recognize Zelensky, I do not see the prerequisites for such a dialogue.” Representatives of the Russian opposition and NGOs from that country are welcome in Munich.
Trump's claims on Greenland
Unrest and even outrage in Europe have been caused by Trump's threats to annex certain territories by force if necessary - including Greenland, which formally belongs to Denmark. US Vice President J.D. Vance supports Trump's expansionist plans. If he reinforces this in Munich, he can expect strong opposition, primarily from representatives of the EU and other European countries.
They have already responded to Trump's threats with a warning, emphasizing that the US must also abide by international law. "The inviolability of borders is one of the basic principles of international law. This principle must apply to everyone," commented German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
It was not without reason that MCS chief Heusgen repeatedly emphasized the importance of international law ahead of the conference: "From my perspective, there is no better alternative than the order reflected in the United Nations Charter."
A week until the elections in Germany
German domestic politics will play a special role at the conference this time: the meeting is taking place just a week before the early elections for the Bundestag (February 23) – that is, at the very end of the election campaign. Several chancellor candidates, or leaders of the list, have confirmed their participation in the MSC. Among them is the head of the CDU and chancellor candidate of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, who is predicted to win the election according to polls.
It is to be expected that their speeches will primarily focus on how much money Germany will invest in the Bundeswehr in the future, or where that money should come from, given the poor budget situation. The question is not whether, but how, Germany and Europe can do more for their own security in the future. With Donald Trump back in the White House, this topic could be discussed at the Munich Security Conference with a greater sense of urgency than ever before.
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