Vladimir Putin's original plan to take over Ukraine in just a few days ended in disaster. But after Donald Trump initiated direct peace talks with Moscow, bypassing Kiev and its European allies, the Russian president is now closer than ever to achieving his goals after three years of invasion.
Putin's main ambition, according to people who spoke to him during the war, is to establish a new security architecture that would give Russia a sphere of influence in Europe - similar to what the Yalta Conference provided the Soviet Union at the end of World War II.
Now the US may be ready to make it happen. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has rejected Ukraine's aspirations to join NATO and reclaim territory from Russia. Putin and Trump have discussed "bilateral economic cooperation," suggesting the US is ready to lift sanctions against Moscow.
Trump appears to intend to reduce the US commitment to NATO and leave the task of peacekeeping to European countries.
"The situation looks much more favorable for Putin than at any point during the past three years of the war," said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia in Berlin.
"If the US unilaterally cuts off military and diplomatic support, as well as intelligence sharing, Ukraine will find itself in a very difficult situation. And it will be difficult to get out of it even if the Europeans get more involved."
There was enthusiasm in Moscow after Trump and Putin's conversation on Wednesday.
"A single call can change the course of history - today the leaders of the United States and Russia may have opened the door to a future based on cooperation, not confrontation," said Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund who participated in secret negotiations with the United States on the prisoner exchange.
The call marked a dramatic reversal from US policy under Joe Biden, who had promised to support Ukraine “for as long as necessary” while working with Western allies to isolate Russia. Now the US has said that victory on the terms Kiev is setting is not “realistic” – a move that Moscow has welcomed as a return to sanity.
"Finally, the Americans are starting to take things seriously, without the meaningless illusions they have been feeding the Ukrainians since the beginning of the war. That is common sense. And a chance to end the war," said a former senior Russian official.
"Putin gave up his illusions after three days," the same official added, referring to the moment when Russia realized its plan for a lightning victory would not work. "But the Europeans and Americans have been under their spell until now, and are only now starting to see reality."
Senior Ukrainian and Western officials said Trump and Putin would likely try to secure a ceasefire by one of two significant dates: Easter, which the Orthodox and Catholic churches mark this year on April 20, or May 9, when Russia celebrates the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany.
"Putin will want (an agreement) on some significant date like this," said one Ukrainian official.
The Kremlin said Thursday that Putin would be happy to host Trump in Moscow for celebrations on May 9. The two leaders have also considered Saudi Arabia as a potential venue for their next meeting.
In Moscow, markets reacted euphorically. The ruble strengthened by five percent against the dollar, and the main index of the Moscow Stock Exchange rose by 2,8 percent, reaching its highest level in nine months.
Hardliners in favor of war welcomed this call as a sign that Russian victory was within reach.
“This must be very painful for the European Union and Ukraine. But their opinion no longer matters,” said Konstantin Malofeyev, a conservative tycoon who finances several Russian volunteer units fighting in Ukraine. “Ukraine is just a pretext for a great dialogue between two great countries about the beginning of a new era in human history.”
Putin told Trump that he wanted to "address the causes of the conflict," suggesting that Russia had not given up on its goal of stopping Ukraine's ambitions to join the West and to dismantle the security order established after the Cold War.
Moscow also demands that Ukraine cede control of four southeastern regions, none of which Russia fully controls, and expects the West to lift all sanctions imposed since 2014.
"The most important thing for Russia is that Ukraine has as few security guarantees as possible," Gabuev said. "For them, it would be ideal for Ukraine to remain a country without investment potential, as weak as possible and torn apart by internal conflicts."
Given that Russia currently has the advantage on the battlefield, Putin could decide to continue the war if Trump does not agree to all his demands, said Dmitry Trenin, a professor at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow.
“Russia is serious about the need to resolve the Ukrainian issue. It is not seeking peace at any cost. It is aware that the only guarantees it can rely on are those it provides itself,” Trenin said. “A deal that does not meet Russia’s vital security requirements would only guarantee that another war will soon break out. Russia will not allow that.”
He added: "The fighting will not stop with the start of negotiations; and if there is no agreement, the war will continue."
Ukraine and its European allies are shocked by Trump's apparent willingness to accommodate Putin.
"Why are we giving Russia everything it wants even before the negotiations have started?" asked the EU's foreign policy chief, Kaia Kalas.
One European official said: “It’s quite incredible that the president has decided to play it this way. I don’t think there is any negotiating position left – he has already put everything on the table.”
But any comprehensive deal will still require significant input from NATO members and Ukraine. “On the substantive and problematic issues, it’s too early to say what Trump is willing and able to offer,” said Samuel Charap, a political scientist at the Rand Corporation. “On these and similar issues, he will need the support of Ukraine and its allies.”
Trump is proving to be as bad as we feared. He is ready to make a deal with Putin at the expense of Ukraine, and he still wants Ukraine to pay him in mineral resources. The question is what will Ukraine and Europe do
The delegation Trump has appointed for talks with Russia does not include his envoy for the conflict, Keith Kellogg, who has been the most vocal US official in calls to increase sanctions pressure on Moscow and continue supplying arms to Ukraine.
“It suggests that the administration does not intend to take Ukraine’s key concerns seriously,” said a former senior US official. “Putin would see it as a confirmation of his vision of the world and a step towards realizing his dream of deeper tensions between the US and Europe.”
Trump's determination to end the war as soon as possible caught Kiev off guard. A person close to Volodymyr Zelensky told the Financial Times that the Ukrainian president was unaware of Trump's conversation with Putin until the US president personally called him.
Zelensky told reporters on Thursday that he was "not comfortable" when he learned that Trump had first spoken with Ukraine's enemy. He stressed that he "will not accept... any bilateral negotiations on Ukraine without us."
Zelensky added that it is imperative "not to let everything go according to Putin's plan."
Kiev hoped to convince Trump to agree on a common position on negotiations with Russia and offered access to its reserves of rare metals in exchange for US support.
For now, Kiev and its European allies are watching in dismay from the sidelines, fearing that the US will strike an unfavorable deal with Putin to end the war - and pass the burden of the costs onto them.
“Trump is proving to be as bad as we feared. He is ready to make a deal with Putin to the detriment of Ukraine, and he still wants Ukraine to pay him in mineral resources,” said Volodymyr Kulik, a professor of political science at the Kiev School of Economics. “The question is what Ukraine and Europe will do.
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