What will the future of EU enlargement policy look like in the atmosphere of security and economic risks that Europe is currently facing? Will significant progress finally be made in the integration of the Balkan countries during the mandate of the new EU Commission? Which countries are closest to EU membership? And how can they contribute to the stabilization of the EU?
These were some of the questions discussed at a panel discussion featuring Marta Kos (EU Commissioner for Enlargement), Edi Rama (Prime Minister of Albania) and Hristijan Mickoski (Prime Minister of North Macedonia), moderated by Majda Ruge from the Berlin-based think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
Kos: "We need to distinguish between the technical and political parts of the process"
Slovenian Commissioner Kos emphasized that today the pace of accession is influenced by geopolitical factors and that the situation has changed compared to the time when her country was entering the EU: "Back then it was clear - if a country respects the criteria, it enters the EU. Later it became more complicated. And today it is even more complicated because of disruptive external forces that would like us to fail."
The priority is not only enlargement, but above all the unification of Europe, Kos added: "We are returning to our roots. The EU was founded to preserve peace, freedom, security and prosperity. Now we are focusing on security and peace. Enlargement can be the most important political element of security guarantees. There is a reason why countries (in the region, ed.) want to become part of the EU, and not, say, the US."
The EU is accelerating the enlargement process, as can be seen in the example of Ukraine, and the Union is currently working on this issue "two or three times faster" than before, Kos added. But, as she notes, a distinction should be made between the technical and political parts of the process:
"As for the technical part, we could complete the negotiations with Albania or Montenegro by the end of 2026 or 2027. But there is also the political part, which means that nothing can happen against the will of the member states. Only the EU can bring candidate countries into the Union, not the US."
Rama: "Europe needed a good shake-up"
The end of 2026 sounds ambitious, but is it even realistic? Albanian Prime Minister Rama is skeptical and recalls that every look in the mirror reminds him of how long this has been going on: "When we started this process, I had black hair and a neat beard."
Rama referred to the main topic of the Munich Conference and the message from the US to Europeans. The Albanian Prime Minister believes that a good thing happened in the Bavarian metropolis and that Europe needed a good "shake-up."
Rama believes that changes within the EU are taking place too slowly and that there are too few of them. He sees the Western Balkans as an area of great opportunities for Western European companies, and advocates for the Balkan countries to access the EU common market as soon as possible. Respecting all criteria should be the basis for gaining voting rights in the European Council, Rama says, but access to the EU common market should be enabled even before that:
"There are 700 million of us, excluding the Russians, in Europe. It's a huge market. Look at what happened in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia when they entered – they invested a lot, but also earned, and then they brought that dividend into the EU." Europe must change or it will disappear, said Rama, citing Mario Draghi and his State of the Union report.
Mickoski: "Change the name, change the flag, change the currency. So what is that?"
Macedonian Prime Minister Mickoski reminded the Munich Conference that his country embarked on the path to membership in the European Union before Albania and that, together with Croatia, it received candidate status: "And Croatia has been a member of the Union for more than a decade, it is in Schengen, it uses the euro as its currency. And we are still where we were 15 years ago. Why is that?"
Mickoski added that the principle by which the EU is guided in the enlargement process, according to which those who make progress advance, is just a "fairy tale" for North Macedonia. He stated that his country is a "victim of bilateralization" within the EU, that is, the fact that individual countries can block the progress of candidates and blackmail them along the way.
"Instead of bringing Europe to the Balkans, we are bringing the Balkans to Europe," said Mickoski, referring primarily to the policies of neighboring countries.
When asked by the panel moderator what his government would do regarding Sofia's request to mention Bulgarians as a minority in the preamble to the Constitution of North Macedonia – a condition for continuing accession negotiations – Mickoski did not give a clear answer. He only recalled his country's history of blockades and added that, despite everything, Skopje remains a reliable partner of the EU:
"Change the name, change the flag, change the currency. So what is that? Is it interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign country? So how long are we going to tolerate double standards?"
"We understand the frustrations over bilateral disputes and support a solution that would separate such issues from the enlargement process. We are ready to help with that," said Commissioner Kos. She added: "It is time to move forward, not only on the issue of North Macedonia, but also on Bosnia and Herzegovina, to advance the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. If not now, when it is obvious why we should do it, when will we?"
Rama: "The paradox that no one talks about"
One part of the panel was dedicated to the current security and economic situation in the EU and the possible effects of the US withdrawal from Europe – if it actually happens. In this context, Albanian Prime Minister Rama spoke about what he called a "paradox" that, in his opinion, no one is talking about.
"Now everyone says we have to increase defense investments, we have to do this, we have to do that in terms of defense. OK, fine. But where is the answer to the question: how are we going to finance it? Other major players that invest in the military have solid economic growth rates. Europe doesn't have them. Where are we going to find the money we need?" Rama wondered.
According to him, the key to everything is for the EU to become competitive again. The Union must certainly be stronger militarily, but it must also be stronger economically, Rama said. He criticized the EU's complicated regulations and added: "America invented artificial intelligence, China copied it, and Europe regulated it even though it doesn't exist at all."
During the 45-minute panel, the participants did not address the current situation in Serbia, namely the student blockades and protests that have spread throughout the country, nor the possible scenarios of what the security situation in the region will really look like if the US, as the most influential political power in the Balkans, does withdraw.
Laschet: "Best through cooperation with the EU"
Does this automatically mean a strengthening of Russian influence in the Balkans? We posed this question on the sidelines of the Munich Conference, among others, to Armin Laschet, the former CDU candidate for chancellor.
"No, I don't see that danger. There are many forces in the Balkans that want to join the EU, towards the West, towards Europe. This also includes NATO members. But the truth is that we really need to see how Russia's influence does not become too great, and the best way to do that is through offers of cooperation - that is, through cooperation with the European Union," Laschet told DW.
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