"Bold as a lion, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković is fighting for Serbian interests. At least, that's the impression anyone who has followed some of his recent statements might have," writes the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung regarding the situation regarding the Serbian Oil Industry and the threat of sanctions that recently arrived from Washington.
The article begins with a well-known fact – that the outgoing Biden administration has imposed sanctions on the Russian oil industry, and thus on the Serbian Oil Industry (NIS), which is majority-owned by Russia's Gazprom. The author of the article, Michael Martens, in the text entitled "Serbian Contribution to the Russian War Budget", reminds readers that this is an extremely profitable and large company that has more than 5.000 employees in Serbia alone and several thousand more in the region, as well as more than 400 gas stations.
"It is the largest taxpayer in Serbia. In addition, NIS also influences Serbian society in other ways, for example as the main sponsor of the Red Star football club. The annual net profit, which is measured in three-digit millions, remains for the Russian war budget."
"However, this business model is threatened by US sanctions. Russia must withdraw from the economically and, above all, politically profitable business in Serbia by February 25th, with a transitional period of 15 days for the sale to new owners. If this does not happen, the sanctions could hit Serbia with all their might. There is a threat of high inflation and an acute energy crisis," writes Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Plenković as a representative of Serbia's interests
The author writes the text from Zagreb and explains that official Croatia wants to avoid such a development:
"The Croatian Prime Minister is eager to avoid this. Back in December 2024, when it was leaked that the next US sanctions package would hit Serbia, Plenković stated that a sustainable solution needed to be found. After Plenković's conversation with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Brussels, he was quoted as saying that it was in no one's interest to leave Serbia without fuel supplies. According to him, Croatia will not be at the forefront of this policy."
It then explains that Plenković's commitment to the welfare of Serbia may seem surprising, since he is not in great love with that country's president, but it also reminds us of the fact that the Serbian oil industry is almost entirely supplied by the Adriatic oil pipeline, which has been running from the Croatian island of Krk since Yugoslav times.
"The pipeline system and a series of storage facilities connected to it are majority-owned by the state-owned company JANAF, which regularly fills the coffers of the government in Zagreb with profits. And JANAF's most important customer is Novi Sad-based Gazprom Neft. In other words, Croatia also benefits from Russian business in Serbia. Without a Russian company in Serbia as a customer, the future, or at least the profitability, of JANAF would be in question."
Sale? Nationalization? Buying time?
The German newspaper also reports speculation in Belgrade and Zagreb about what a solution might look like:
"Sale to a neutral company, say a Greek one? Forced nationalization? That is not an option, because Vučić does not want to spoil relations with Moscow, especially since he soon has to negotiate with Putin about a new gas contract. That Balkan state did not join the sanctions against Russia and was rewarded with deliveries of cheap Russian gas. But will that also apply in the event that Russia has to hand over the most important instrument of economic and political influence in Serbia?"
"For now, Moscow and Belgrade are buying time," the Frankfurt newspaper writes. "The Serbian Ministry of Energy announced that NIS has asked Washington to postpone the sanctions for 90 days. This request is supported by the governments of Serbia and Hungary. There is obviously hope that it will persuade Trump to lift the sanctions imposed by his predecessor or at least prevent their implementation."
It is also assessed that Hungary's support is a "smart calculation": "Trump has a high opinion of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and on the other hand, he is good with Vučić, as both have developed a similar model of government in their countries."
"Orban and Vučić, however, are preparing another big thing, which should strengthen Russian influence in Southeast Europe like few events in previous decades. In October 2022, Belgrade and Budapest announced that they would connect northern Serbia and Hungary with pipes, to connect there to the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which has been supplying Hungary with Russian oil since Soviet times. Only last week did the Serbian government confirm this plan. Technical preparation will be completed in 2025, and construction in 2027," reports Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, but with the assessment that "it is unclear who will then own the Serbian oil industry."
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