The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU and CSU) achieved its main goal – to become the strongest political force and secure the position of the next chancellor.
"We have won these Bundestag elections," said CDU chairman and likely future chancellor Friedrich Merz.
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However, there was no big celebration at CDU headquarters, as expectations were higher.
During the campaign, it was said that the target was over 30 percent of the vote, but the result remained below that limit – around 28 percent.
That is not enough for independent rule, so the Christian Democrats must look for coalition partners.
According to Merc's announcements, this will definitely not be the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is convincingly second.
One in five voters in Germany voted for this party, some of whose committees have been registered as extremist.
"We doubled! They wanted to cut us in half, but the opposite happened," said AfD co-chair Alice Weidel.
She said that only with the AfD could the Christian Democrats implement key promises, such as ending irregular migration.
"Our hand for participation in government will always be extended, in order to implement the will of the people, the will of Germany," said Weidel.
However, Merc reiterated that there is no cooperation with right-wingers.
"We have fundamentally different positions, for example on foreign and security policy, but also on EU, NATO and euro issues," Merz said on election night.
Turning to Weidel, he added: "You can lend us your hand as much as you want."
The AfD has threatened to put pressure on the government as the largest opposition force.
"We will push them to pursue sensible policies for our country," said Weidel.
Christian Democrats promise a turnaround
In addition to the weak economy, a key topic of the election campaign was asylum policy.
"There is a sense of insecurity among Germans," said Bavarian CSU chairman Markus Söder, commenting on the AfD's success.
According to him, voters are not sure that the Christian Democrats will actually implement their promises, so many have decided to stay with the AfD.
"We will make every effort to organize a political turnaround in Germany," said Söder.
The math says that the Christian Democrats can form a government with the Social Democrats. Cooperation with the Greens alone is not enough for a majority.
These two parties, the SPD and the Greens, the previous parties in power, must first face major losses.
The biggest blow was suffered by the SPD, which achieved its worst result since 16 with only 1890 percent of the vote.
"This is a bitter outcome for the Social Democratic Party," Chancellor Olaf Scholz admitted.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius – otherwise the most popular politician in Germany – went a step further, describing the election outcome as "devastating and catastrophic."
The unfortunate Chancellor Olaf Scholz
Scholz became the first German chancellor in five decades not to be re-elected. His coalition with the Greens and the Liberals lasted less than three years. It collapsed in early November 2024 due to a dispute over state finances.
Scholz has already announced that in the future he wants to be just an ordinary member of the Bundestag.
The voter punishment also hit the Liberals hard, who fell below the threshold. Party leader Christian Lindner announced his retirement from politics after this setback.
The Greens' losses were relatively limited. Their candidate Robert Habek described the election result as "decent".
"We weren't punished that harshly, but we wanted more and we didn't get it," he admitted.
If the Union needs the Greens as a coalition partner, Habek said that his party is ready for talks.
The Left is Comfortable in the Bundestag
Before the elections, the Christian Democrats rejected the possibility of a coalition with the Left, as well as with the Alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW), which split from that party in early 2024.
However, the Left achieved a surprising jump in support at the end of the campaign and, with almost nine percent of the vote, became the unexpected winner among the smaller parties.
BSW, on the other hand, fell short of the threshold by 0,03 percent. If they had passed the threshold, Merc's cooperation with the Social Democrats would not have been enough for a majority, so the Christian Democrats were certainly the ones who were most happy about BSW's failure.
No matter how complex the coalition negotiations are, the future government faces enormous challenges. Friedrich Merz said on election night that the process of forming a government must be quick, given the urgent tasks.
"The world outside is not waiting for us, nor for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations," he stressed.
According to him, Germany must become capable of action as soon as possible in order to be present in Europe again and for the world to understand that it is being governed reliably again. The CDU believes that this would be easier to achieve if the coalition agreement were designed as a framework document, rather than a detailed government plan.
Huge hole in the budget
The biggest challenge for the new government will be the budget. Tax revenues are no longer enough to cover state obligations. Huge spending on the military, the repair of dilapidated infrastructure and the climate-friendly transformation of the country – all of this requires billions of euros. In addition, Germany is in the midst of its biggest economic crisis since reunification.
These are the first elections since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the German government has provided Ukraine with military aid worth around 28 billion euros, making Germany, after the United States, the largest supporter of the government in Kiev.
However, with the coming to power of Donald Trump in the USA, relations have changed: the new American administration is turning its back on Europe. Washington is now saying that further allocations for Ukraine are primarily the task of European countries. It is also expected that Europe will take more care of its own defense capabilities in the future.
International expectations of Germany
For the new German government, this will mean that it must quickly set priorities, especially if Germany is to regain the political prominence that the CDU promised during the election campaign.
"We must take on a leading role in Europe again, not from on high, but with France, with Poland, with a strong EU," CDU Secretary General Karsten Linemann stressed just before the election.
In addition to diplomatic initiatives, this requires major financial investments. The biggest dispute in the coalition negotiations will probably be where the money will come from: from new loans or savings in the federal budget? There are differences on this issue, especially between the CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats.
What will happen to the debt limitation law?
Not spending more money than you earn is enshrined in the German constitution. Exceptions exist only in emergency situations, natural disasters, and severe economic crises.
The SPD and the Greens believe that debt is inevitable. The CDU's candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has a completely opposite opinion: he relies on economic growth and demands cuts in social benefits. This is unacceptable to the SPD.
The new Bundestag must be constituted no later than 30 days after the elections, or no later than March 25. According to the German constitution, the constituent session of the Bundestag ends the term of office of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his government, which consists of the SPD and the Greens.
If a new government is not formed by then, the current one will continue to technically carry out its duties.
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