Friedrich Merz, the winner of the election and likely new German chancellor, has attracted attention with his first statements indicating that he plans to act quickly and radically. He said he was looking forward to the NATO summit in June, adding that "the question is whether we will then be able to talk about NATO in its current form or whether we will have to establish a European defense capability even more quickly."
Augustin Palokaj, a Brussels-based correspondent for Jutarnji List, writes that NATO has not noticed "indications that the US would dramatically change its presence in Europe or its commitment to NATO obligations." True, Trump wants to act quickly to implement as many of his decisions as possible, but in some cases he is limited by procedures and protocols, such as NATO.
US defense budget
They are probably aware of Trump's plans for the new defense budget, but they are not ready to talk about them. The Washington Post reported that the Pentagon will cut spending to bring defense policy into line with the demands of Trump's MAGA (Make America Great Again) doctrine.
Spending must not be cut on operations related to the Mexican border and the modernization of nuclear weapons and missile defense (the US President wants his own defense system like Israel's "Iron Dome"). When it comes to defense spending abroad, funding for the Indo-Pacific and Space Commands must continue.
The list does not include the European Command, which could therefore be cut off. If there were any doubts about the Trump administration's plans, the budget guidelines expose them. Merz is right, Europe must take responsibility for its security, including in Ukraine.
That is why he announced the start of negotiations with the Social Democrats (SPD), likely coalition partners, to urgently vote on the approval of special defense spending worth 200 billion euros before the new Bundestag (lower house of the German parliament) is formed. During the campaign, he announced that he planned to raise defense spending to three percent of GDP: now it is on the verge of two percent, writes Jutarnji list.
The seriousness of the situation was also highlighted by Kaja Kalas, the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, who, after a meeting of the Council of Ministers on Monday, said that the statements coming from the US were "worrying", stressing that "NATO is a defensive alliance that exists for the defense of all members". This is a controversial position, said Professor Mirko Bilandžić: "President Donald Trump's policy, instead of transatlanticism, is oriented towards transactionalism..."
In other words, rewarding countries with the highest percentage of defense spending and punishing those that spend too little, along with a redeployment of US forces in Europe, which will result in a security relationship based more on bilateralism than (NATO) multilateralism."
This approach was confirmed by US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who, during his stay in Europe a few days ago, visited only Poland, which allocates more than four percent to defense. Vladislav Košnjak-Kamiš, the Minister of Defense, said at the time that US forces would not withdraw from his country, according to Jutarnji List.
Faced with such an American approach, some EU members are considering strengthening bilateral security ties with Washington, relying on ideological proximity, which leads to disunity that can block existential decisions. Poland, writes geopolitical expert Marta Prochwicz-Jazowska in Le Monde, believes that the difficulty can be solved by increased cooperation among members who wish to do so, expanding it beyond the EU.
"The Nordic and eastern flank states, most concerned about security, will have to form an effective coalition, establish mechanisms for coordinating armed forces, and harmonize procedures and equipment," she says. The Polish expert believes that the impetus should come from the Weimar Triangle (Poland, Germany, France) with the possibility of involving other members. "In order to overcome divisions on security issues, a multi-speed Europe seems inevitable," concludes Marta Prochwicz-Jazowska.
Her words are already being implemented, a video meeting of defense ministers was held in Tallinn on Monday, co-chaired by Estonian Minister Hanno Pevkur and French Sebastian Lecornu, and attended by ministers from Lithuania, Latvia, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Poland.
Along with Norway and Iceland, the seat is open to the United Kingdom, which was invited to the meeting in Paris by Emmanuel Macron, who was unnecessarily criticized.
Additional confirmation of the Polish expert's words is the already active NB8 group, which includes the Scandinavian (N) and Baltic countries (B), eight of them: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden.
On their behalf, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen wrote in an article published in the Financial Times on Monday: "With the future of European security hanging in the balance, it is time for all of Europe to step up. It is about prioritizing the security of Ukraine and Europe."
In a joint statement marking the third anniversary of Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the leaders of those countries warned that "the outcome of the war will have profound and long-lasting effects on European and transatlantic security." Rasmussen writes that Europe, if strengthened, will be a stronger American partner.
"Only by increasing our own efforts will we become indispensable in future negotiations," he concludes, adding that "we must invest more in our own defense by ensuring that NATO's defense plans can be implemented in all circumstances."
In this context, Estonia has once again taken action to encourage other EU members to agree to seize frozen Russian funds (200 billion euros) that would be used to aid Ukraine, writes Jutarnji list.
Moscow proposed that this money be used in Ukraine, but also in the occupied territories, which would be a signal that the EU recognizes the occupation.
The Scandinavians and Baltic countries are not waiting, and the Poles are with them, announcing the use of European funds for defense. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the EC, announced the easing of fiscal criteria in the case of defense allocations.
If Merc joins the NB8 group, conditions will be created in which a relevant group of European states could be established with the aim of forming a sustainable defense with minimal American guarantees.
A step further would be to turn Merz's warning into an advantage, a NATO in which European states would play a leading role.
Bonus video:
