Germany is in political shock. It has become clearer than ever before to the most economically powerful country in Europe that the geopolitical situation is fundamentally changing. That it has changed a long time ago.
All relevant politicians in Germany are now busy feverishly searching for answers to the changes that are taking place extremely quickly. At the moment, this means a clearer positioning in relation to the United States and Russia. And additional armaments.
"The US has been unreliable for a long time"
Renowned political scientist Carlo Masala estimates that for Europe, "the US will not be a reliable partner in terms of values and interests in the foreseeable future." The professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich made the statement on Monday (March 3rd) to Deutschlandfunk.
However, he added: "Certainly in some cases they will have more common interests with us than with others. I believe that then an independent and sovereign Europe would be more attractive to the US in such cases."
"US a security risk for Europe"
The background to this discussion is the scandal in the White House that occurred on Friday (February 28) when US President Donald Trump, in front of the cameras and in the presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, effectively canceled solidarity with Ukraine.
Claudia Major of the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) says: "We have to admit that our most important ally is now no longer behaving like an ally, but is becoming a security risk for Europe."
Scholz in London in the shadow of Macron and Starmer
All this is happening at a time when Germany has not yet formed a new government after the snap parliamentary elections. The new chancellor will probably be the leader of the Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz. This politician has never held public office before. Germany is currently in this transitional phase.
At the London summit, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set the pace, not German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is nearing the end of his term. Paris and London stood behind Ukrainian President Zelensky and proposed a plan to halt hostilities between Ukraine and Russia.
Germany's restraint is justified, as Scholz is not at his full capacity as chancellor after his election defeat. In Germany, political culture dictates that a chancellor who is about to hand over power to a successor refrains from making far-reaching decisions, and anything Scholz would say in London would be seen as a far-reaching stance.
The head of the German Social Democrats (SPD), Lars Klingbeil, said that Germany is not standing aside in these critical times, so Scholz traveled to London and met with Zelensky. "The next German government will have a great responsibility in European politics. Together with Poland and France, they will form a trio of countries that will be decisive for establishing stability in Europe," he said.
There is speculation in Berlin that Klingbeil could become foreign minister in the event of a coalition between the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats. He called the row in the Oval Office a wake-up call.
400 billion euros for the Bundeswehr?
Politically, Berlin has certainly woken up. Suddenly, measures are being discussed that were unthinkable a while ago. It is a huge new financial program that would enable the Bundeswehr to defend the country together with other European allies without the participation of the United States.
This program would also have to include funds to compensate for the complete or partial absence of American support for Ukraine. The sums mentioned are 400 billion euros, although last week they were talking about 200 billion euros. Germany certainly cannot finance this from the current budget, but must borrow beyond the limits prescribed by the German Constitution. Parliament would have to change this constitutional provision.
Decision possible only in the old parliament
The Bundestag, however, would have to decide this with a two-thirds majority – and that is the old parliament that was elected in 2021. The new parliament does not have a two-thirds majority due in part to the strengthening of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Left. There is not much time, as the new Bundestag must convene no later than March 24th.
Merz intends to form a Christian Democratic-Social Democratic government by Easter, but first he must agree on a coalition with the SPD. He announced in Berlin on Monday: "We want to do something for the Bundeswehr and that became more than clear after the events in Washington at the White House on Friday at the latest. But we don't have an agreement yet. I can't make any predictions."
Merz and Scholz talk on Wednesday
Merz thus denied the news that the Bundestag will decide on a record investment in the German military next Monday (March 10). The pressure on all stakeholders to agree on such an investment is greater than ever. The Social Democrats have canceled all appointments this week in order to focus on talks on forming a government.
On Wednesday (March 5), Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with his likely successor, Friedrich Merz, to agree on the next steps. Among the main questions is one in particular: how can Germany itself take care of its own security, which has been provided by the United States since 1945?
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