This is the latest emergency meeting of the heads of state and government of the European Union, following a gathering in London organized by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Sunday, as well as several earlier ones convened by French President Emmanuel Macron.
With the US having suspended military and financial support for Ukraine, and its commitment to European security unclear, the EU has no choice but to seriously address improving its own security.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stresses that the situation is worse than ever, writing in a letter to EU leaders that the continent "faces a clear and immediate threat the likes of which none of us have experienced in our adult lives. The future of a free and sovereign Ukraine, as well as a secure and prosperous Europe, is at stake."
More money for the army
She hopes that the "ReArm Europe" plan will remove some of the economic excuses that governments have used so far for low defense budgets.
One way is to allow governments to break the rules on maximum debt-to-GDP ratios when it comes to defense spending. Von der Leyen says that an additional investment of 1,5 percent of GDP in each member state would mean almost 650 billion euros more for the military industry over the next four years.
The "Rearming Europe" plan also envisages the creation of a new mechanism to provide 150 billion euros through loans guaranteed by the common EU budget, a concept that has caused controversy in some countries.
The money, an EU official who spoke on condition of anonymity explained, could be used by two or three cooperating member states, or two, together with Ukraine. The aim is to jointly procure large-scale equipment and capabilities, such as air and missile defense, drones and cybersecurity assets, particularly in areas where Europe currently relies on the United States.
The same senior EU official also said that the desired outcome of the summit was for leaders to “indicate that these proposals should be adopted quickly” so that the EU can create its own, credible defense.
Hungary and Slovakia as an obstacle?
Hungary and Slovakia have signaled their usual opposition to any moves to help Ukraine. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico even published a letter that begins that way.
However, there is also room for an optimistic interpretation — that Fico will not block EU decisions that do not oblige Slovakia to participate financially.
And the basic goal of the "Rearming Europe" plan is for states to first gain access to funds to improve their own defense.
Giuseppe Spatafora, a researcher at the EU Institute for Security Studies, believes Ursula von der Leyen's plan can gain unanimous support, even if it doesn't happen right away at the summit. The stakes, he points out, have become high. Spatafora has just published a study on what it would look like if the US turned its back on the EU.
He believes that the fact that the package contains a range of options — additional borrowing, spending on joint procurement, redirecting money from cohesion funds to military purposes — “is a way to get maximum agreement.” He also believes that the relatively rare mention of Ukraine in the plan was intended “to avoid vetoes from individual member states.”
Still, Spatafora believes that even for countries that are uncomfortable with the EU taking on a greater role in areas that are usually the responsibility of national governments or NATO, “you have to start with money.” “The EU's role will be welcome if it provides additional resources, primarily money,” he says.
Upheaval in Sweden
Sweden has so far been among the countries hesitant to accept a greater EU role — and joint funding — in defense. Kalle Hakansson, a researcher at the Swedish Defense Research Agency, says there has been a “change in tone and urgency” in recent days, following the deterioration of relations between President Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday, February 28, and the subsequent suspension of U.S. aid to Ukraine.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristerson has now informed his parliament that he fully supports the “Rearmament of Europe” package, after other states that previously had reservations, such as Finland, Denmark and Germany, also changed their positions.
"Sweden didn't want to be left behind," Hakansson said. "This package has been in the works for a while, but I think the ambition has probably increased in the past few weeks. There is a real sense of urgency and a real fear that Europe could be left alone."
Germany and a trillion in new debt
Speaking of a shift in attitudes, just hours after von der Leyen presented her package of proposals, the likely future partners in the new German government, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democrats (SPD), announced that, as soon as they take power, they intend to lift the debt limit, in order to allow for greater spending on defense. The likely future Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) is promising an additional 500 billion euros for defense, along with another 500 billion euros for infrastructure.
Jeremy Cliff of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank says the changes in Germany are "stunning," as is the "sheer fiscal force" they will unleash.
Turning a new leaf, starting a new book
Leaving a meeting in London hosted by the UK on Sunday, Ursula von der Leyen said she wanted to provide so much help to Ukraine that it would become a “steely, prickly pig” capable of withstanding external attacks. If EU countries make the most of the new instruments it offers them to improve their own capacities, the Union itself, she said, would gain an important layer of self-defense.
"Is that enough for the future? Probably not. But as a first step, I think it's actually quite impressive," said a senior EU diplomat who also asked to remain anonymous.
An EU official was even more emphatic about the significance of the “Rearming Europe” plan: “This is turning a new leaf. I think we are now starting a new book, and it is called: ‘Europe of Defence’.”
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