Hugs. Photo ops. A promise to continue arming Ukraine. Despite everything that has happened in the six weeks since Donald Trump returned to the White House, that's about all European Union leaders could offer Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday.
Of course, they agreed on plans to strengthen the EU's defense sector, but - perhaps most importantly in the short term - they failed to agree on new concrete commitments that would immediately strengthen Ukraine's position.
Kiev faces a cutoff in U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing as the Trump administration steps up pressure on Zelensky to quickly reach a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ahead of the Brussels meeting, diplomats from countries that strongly support Ukraine expressed hope that the meeting would yield new commitments to give Kiev a stronger negotiating position.
"We must support Ukraine now more than ever," said EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaia Kalas ahead of the emergency summit.
However, after 10 hours of talks and despite public expressions of support for Zelensky, who appeared before reporters alongside the leaders of the two most important European institutions, Ursula von der Leyen and Antoni Košta, the final conclusions reached among national leaders focused exclusively on collective efforts to build a disunited EU defense sector.
The part of the conclusions relating to Ukraine did not even receive the agreement of all 27 members due to the opposition of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who does not hide his support for Putin. Orban had stated before the meeting that he was against the joint statement on Ukraine and has maintained that position.
The rest of the EU dismissed any impression of discord. “He’s done that before,” outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters. “So it didn’t shake the European Union.”
Excluding Hungary, 26 countries signed a declaration on Ukraine that sets clear boundaries for future peace talks, supports its EU membership and promises future military assistance - but without specific goals.
Peace through strength
The reason was not a lack of effort on Zelensky's part.
Dressed in his signature black combat suit, which Donald Trump mocked last week during Zelensky's visit to the White House, the Ukrainian president outlined a list of urgent needs during a speech upon his arrival in Brussels.
He described Russia's daily air strikes on Ukrainian cities, calling on Europe to "accelerate" work on a financial instrument to help the Ukrainian military. He demanded a new package of sanctions against Russia and urged the EU to press ahead with plans to admit Ukraine into the bloc by 2030.
“Achieving ‘peace through strength’ requires Ukraine to be in a position of strength, with its own strong military and defence capabilities as a key element,” the statement signed by 26 leaders said. “The European Union remains committed, in coordination with partners and allies, to providing increased political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine and its people.”
An EU diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, defended the bloc's plans to increase military aid to Ukraine. Work on future arms packages will continue through a coalition of the willing, which could include non-EU members such as Britain.
Before the meeting, Kaja Kalas tried to rally EU countries around an initiative to provide at least 20 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine by 2025, diplomatic sources said. However, despite extensive negotiations, the proposal did not receive unanimous support.
During the closed-door talks, Kallas stressed that the EU should focus on providing weapons to Ukraine, not just acquiring them for its own needs, two EU diplomats said.
Still, Zelensky received a few concrete promises on Thursday - but not from the EU. Norway announced an increase in its direct military aid to Ukraine to 8 billion euros by 2025, more than double its previous commitment.
Uncomfortable silence
A key question hanging over Ukraine's future is whether the EU can make up for or somehow compensate for the interruption of American military aid and intelligence.
Estonian Prime Minister Kristian Michal, according to an EU official familiar with the discussion, raised the issue during closed-door talks by asking a direct question: “Can we do it alone?”
The answer? Complete silence.
EU countries have collectively pledged more financial and military support to Ukraine than the United States since the start of the Russian invasion three years ago. That support will continue to flow in the coming months, including around 30 billion euros in financial aid for 2025, provided through loans guaranteed by frozen Russian assets.
However, the end of US military support leaves a huge gap in the allies' ability to support Ukraine in all aspects of the war - especially when it comes to intelligence and targeting information for precision weapons.
“The disruption of intelligence sharing is extremely significant for Ukraine,” Colonel Philip Ingram, a former British military intelligence officer, told Politiko. “It means losing access to information about targets for long-range missiles, but also data to intercept incoming missiles and drones. EU member states simply do not have significant strategic intelligence capabilities because they are too internally focused – countries like Germany are completely dependent on NATO. They are now challenged to take on that role, but it requires decades of work and hundreds of millions of dollars.”
As European leaders sat down to dinner, an NBC News report, citing current and former US officials, further deepened doubts about America's commitment to NATO. The report suggested that Washington might in future defend only those countries that allocate a certain percentage of their gross domestic product to defense.
Concerns about a possible US withdrawal or reduction in its role in Europe's security architecture have sparked one of the continent's biggest geopolitical crises in decades, with European leaders embarking on a diplomatic offensive over the past two weeks.
When it all came together in Brussels, it became clear that the primary concern of European leaders was preventing the loss of American security guarantees. Strengthening Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table ended up as a secondary issue, as best seen in the time leaders spent discussing Ukraine in relation to defense.
The debate on European defense lasted almost all of 10 hours, with leaders clashing over how to finance the planned €800 billion increase in defense spending and how much of that investment should be directed to European and how much to non-EU sources.
The talks on Ukraine, on the other hand, were concluded in just 15 minutes, one diplomat said. That says it all.
Translation: NB
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