Donald Trump's idea of American interests taking control of Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant has one catch for the man who coined the phrase "the art of the deal": it will be years before there is any hope of a return on investment.
The massive power plant, which Russia occupied in the early days of the 2022 invasion, is facing numerous problems. Its six reactors are in a state of cold shutdown, the plant has lost its main source of cooling water, and no one knows the condition of its equipment.
According to a statement from the US presidential administration, Trump suggested to Volodymyr Zelensky in a phone call on Wednesday that the United States could help manage, and perhaps even own, Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
Later, Zelensky stated that this part of the conversation concerned only the Zaporozhye power plant: “The president asked me if there was an understanding that America could rebuild it, and I answered in the affirmative - if we could modernize it and invest money.”
Two Ukrainian industry sources told Reuters that the proposal could be an example of the United States testing different ideas to see what works as Trump tries to craft a lasting peace deal that would quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
One of the sources said that this idea also represents pressure on Russia, proposing an arrangement in which Moscow would have to hand over the power plant. According to him, the Americans are further heating up the situation by using the word “ownership”.
Zelensky said that the reconstruction of the power plant, the largest such facility in Europe, would take two and a half years.
A former senior Ukrainian official said that "with the Americans, anything is possible, but this is something quite unusual."
"The Americans would be the owners - but on what basis? It belongs to Ukraine. Okay, let's hand it over to the US - but on what basis? Will they buy it? Will they take it over as a concession? There are many questions."
“A suitcase without a handle”
Oleksandr Kharchenko, an energy analyst in Kiev, said that the plant's return to the Ukrainian grid - which Kiev is demanding - would be a "watershed moment" for energy production, not only for Ukraine, but also for Eastern and Central Europe.
Before the war, the plant provided 20% of Ukraine's total electricity production. Ukraine began exporting electricity to the European Union shortly before the invasion, but had to suspend it when Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on its energy infrastructure.
Despite attempts, Russian forces have failed to connect the plant to the Russian power grid, as a result of which it is currently not producing any energy.
Kharchenko estimates that it would take up to a year to restart just one reactor, while a full restart of the power plant would require up to four years due to numerous problems.
One of the biggest challenges is that the power plant has lost access to water from the Kakhovsky Reservoir, which was emptied after the hydroelectric power plant and dam were destroyed in 2023, just before the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The nuclear plant has been using water from the cooling pool ever since, but the water level is constantly dropping.
Engineers at the Ukrainian Energy Ministry believe that the lack of water would mean that only two of the six reactors could be restarted to generate electricity. Moreover, they estimate that it would take at least a year to restart even that limited operation, as the technical condition of the plant is unknown.
One of the plant employees, who fled the occupied area and now lives in Kiev, told Reuters that Ukraine had already drawn up a detailed plan for the possible return of the plant under its control.
The employee, who asked to remain anonymous because his relatives are still living under occupation, said it would not be enough for Russia to simply hand over the power plant. It would also be necessary to secure the neighboring Russian-controlled thermal power plant, as well as nearby settlements, including the city of Energodar, and the road to the Ukrainian-controlled city of Zaporozhye.
However, for some people, like pensioner Olha Shishkina from Zaporozhye, the return of the power plant to Ukrainian control at some point seems likely, as it has not benefited the Russian side in any way so far.
"For Russia, our nuclear power plant is like a suitcase without a handle. After all, it is not operational, it is just a toy now. And for us, it is of critical importance," she said.
Translation: NB
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