From Dayton to Riyadh, 'shuttle' diplomacy in action

The first time they tried to seat them at the same table ended in failure.

Twenty-one days later, they reached an agreement that ended the bloodiest war in Europe since World War II. In the American city of Dayton, a peace agreement was initialed that ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Thirty years later, a new war, different players, and renewed diplomatic efforts: can the war in Ukraine be stopped using the same methods?

What are the similarities?

What happened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where, thanks to the efforts of the American delegation, both the Ukrainian and Russian sides were present at the negotiations, is somewhat reminiscent of the events in Dayton, says former ambassador to Serbia and North Macedonia Christopher Hill.

As deputy to Richard Holbrooke, the chief negotiator and "creator" of the Dayton Peace Agreement, Hill was at the forefront of this historic process.

"We saw that if we put them together in a room, each side would give speeches about the misunderstandings and why they were right and the other side was wrong. "Shuttle diplomacy proved to be a much more effective tool," Hill explains.

The method, he adds, was used countless times by Henry Kissinger, US Secretary of State in President Richard Nixon's government, as well as by negotiators in the Middle East. "But I think in the case of Bosnia it proved to be very successful," he concludes.

The agreement was reached on November 21, 1995, and signed in Paris on December 14. This put an end to the conflict that left 100.000 dead, two million displaced, and devastated the infrastructure of the state that the United Nations had recognized a few years earlier.

Three years after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, illegally annexing territories, and millions of people fled the country in fear for their lives, representatives of both countries met in the same city, and the American delegation met individually with each of them in Riyadh.

What are the effects of "shuttle" diplomacy?

After three days of separate meetings with Ukrainian and Russian delegations, the United States announced that it had reached separate agreements with Kiev and Moscow on a ban on the use of force in the Black Sea and efforts to stop attacks on energy facilities in both countries. But peace still appears far off.

"Shuttle" diplomacy is a reality, says Mate Granić, who was the deputy chief negotiator for Croatian President Franjo Tuđman in Dayton.

"It is used when the starting positions are as far apart as they are now, for example between Ukraine and Russia, then it is logical to always start with "shuttle" diplomacy. That is logical. Why? Ukraine wants a just peace, and it is known what Russia wants, that it does not even want to talk about the occupied territories. That it does not want any peacekeeping forces from NATO or countries that are in NATO to come, that Ukraine is no longer armed. Therefore, at this moment it is logical to start with "shuttle diplomacy", says Granić.

Nebojša Vujović, a member of the Serbian delegation then led by Slobodan Milošević, was also a witness to the Dayton process.

He explains that the Americans are now talking to the parties involved, bringing them closer to each other, which was what Richard Holbrooke and his team did in the 1990s, which resulted in a peace agreement.

"It's roughly the same now in the efforts to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. The fact that Trump and Putin are talking on the phone and Trump and Zelensky, and on the other hand the American envoy is visiting Kiev and Moscow and reporting to Trump, means that things are currently being brought to a line through "shuttle" diplomacy where the first ceasefire agreement could possibly be produced," says Vujović.

Dayton's lessons for Riyadh

After the meetings in Riyadh, the White House issued two statements: one on negotiations with Ukraine, the other with Russia.

Both stated that the United States would continue "to mediate negotiations between both parties to achieve a peaceful resolution" to the war, now entering its fourth year.

These agreements appear to be one of the most concrete results of US President Donald Trump's efforts to mediate an end to the war since he took office two months ago, writes the editorial staff of Radio Free Europe.

Recalling the Dayton negotiations, former ambassador Christopher Hill says it was clear that the parties involved could not be brought to the same place.

In order to achieve peace, meetings were held in Belgrade, Zagreb, Sarajevo when possible, and even Geneva. They tried to find out what all the parties wanted and then put it on paper and show it to them. Then direct negotiations began.

This time, instead of flying, they walked from one to another at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base.

"Towards the end of Dayton, we started bringing the parties to the same table," Hill says.

Three constituent peoples, two entities, the Republika Srpska and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, one district, ten cantons, a three-member presidency and, as Richard Holbrooke called it, an "imperfect peace" are the reality of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

After attempts in 2006 and 2009 to amend the Dayton Agreement, there were no major initiatives.

It's hard to say whether American efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine will have the same success. Looking back at the Dayton process three decades later and what lessons might be learned for future negotiations, including Ukrainian-Russian ones, Hill says it's smart to stay engaged.

"I think it will be necessary. You can't just say 'that problem is over, let's move on'."

All three signatories of the Dayton Agreement died - Franjo Tuđman in 1999, Alija Izetbegović in 2003. Slobodan Milošević died in 2006 in the custody of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.

In addition to all the other reasons, the circumstances in the case of Ukraine and Russia are further complicated by the fact that Vladimir Putin is indicted before the International Criminal Court. Is it possible to imagine a Putin-Zelensky meeting? If you ask Christopher Hill, it's difficult.

"I think Putin has ensured that the hostility between Ukraine and Russia will last for generations. So I wouldn't try to bring them together in the idea that they will feel like brothers, because that's not going to happen," Hill says.

The valuable Dayton experience

BiH is today burdened by divisions and dysfunction, but has been at peace for three decades, making the Dayton Agreement one of the more successful peace agreements in recent history.

The success of the Dayton Agreement lies in the fact that it stopped the war. It was a certain form of compromise and its basis is completely sound, says Mate Granić, a former member of the Croatian delegation and current foreign policy advisor to Prime Minister Andrej Plenković.

"But for everything else, of course, we need to continue working and negotiating."

The Dayton Agreement was specific and the Dayton experience is valuable, adds Nebojša Vujović, Milošević's associate.

"It established peace that has prevailed for almost 30 years. So Dayton first achieved peace, prevented destruction and killing of people, and on the other hand created two entities that are stable, durable and create the possibility of some kind of coexistence."

Yes, the 1995 agreement has its problems, Christopher Hill agrees.

"But you have to remember that we weren't imposing anything. We were brokering. We were trying to reach an agreement that both sides, actually three sides, could live with. That was hard to achieve."

But wars eventually end, Hill says, and when you look at the way they end, there's usually a role that diplomacy played. How much of a role that is in the war in Ukraine remains to be seen.

"I think there is a logic to ending this war. Ukraine is devastated, but in many respects Russia has also suffered profound damage. And not just the damage from the drones, but how it is perceived in the world now. I don't think anyone will look at Russians the same way again. The war has to end. But how that will happen is hard to say."

After three days of talks in Riyadh, some bilateral agreements have been reached between the United States, Ukraine, and Russia, but many things remain unclear, including how far Moscow is willing to go toward a complete ceasefire or a peace agreement that will not make Kiev a complete loser.