Turkey's democracy is fighting for survival

Since the arrest of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political opponent, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, earlier this month on apparently trumped-up corruption and terrorism charges, Taksim Square - the city's most famous tourist spot and focal point of political protests - has stood empty, under police siege. In my 50 years living in Istanbul, I have never seen so many so-called security measures on the streets as in recent days.

Taksim metro station, like many other traffic stations, has been closed. Regional authorities have restricted access to cars and intercity buses. Police are stopping and searching vehicles, and anyone suspected of coming to the city to protest is being turned away. Televisions across the country are constantly on, so that citizens can follow the latest, disturbing political developments. The Istanbul governor's office has been banning public protests and political gatherings for a week now - rights guaranteed by the constitution. However, spontaneous, unsanctioned protests and clashes with police continue, despite internet restrictions imposed to prevent gatherings. Police are using tear gas relentlessly and arresting people in large numbers.

The question arises as to how such scandalous things can happen in a country that is a member of NATO and aspires to join the EU. While the world's attention is focused on Donald Trump, the wars between Palestine and Israel, Ukraine and Russia - what is left of Turkish democracy is fighting for its own survival.

The imprisonment of the president’s main rival – a politician capable of rallying mass support – elevates Erdogan’s autocratic, heavy-handed rule to a level never seen before. Imamoglu’s arrest came just days before the main opposition party was set to formally nominate him as its presidential candidate. Now, both supporters and opponents of the government largely agree on one thing: Erdogan sees Imamoglu as a political threat he wants to eliminate.

The question arises as to how such scandalous things can happen in a country that is a member of NATO and is aspiring to join the EU. While the world's attention is focused on Donald Trump, the wars between Palestine and Israel, Ukraine and Russia - what is left of Turkish democracy is fighting for its own survival.

Imamoglu has won more votes than Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party in the last three election cycles in Istanbul. When Imamoglu defeated their candidate in April 2019, Erdogan annulled the results, citing technical irregularities. The election was repeated two months later - Imamoglu won again, by an even larger margin. In the 2024 local elections, after five years in office, he again defeated Erdogan’s party candidate and became Istanbul’s mayor for the third time. Imamoglu’s electoral achievements to date and growing popularity have made him a key opposition candidate who could seriously threaten Erdogan in the next presidential election.

On the other hand, Erdogan now seems to be using the same model against his opponent that was used against him 27 years ago. He was elected mayor of Istanbul in 1998 and a popular political figure. His political Islam was seen as dangerous by the secular and military elite. He was imprisoned and charged - in his case, with inciting religious hatred after reciting a political song at a rally. Erdogan was removed from his post as mayor and spent four months in prison.

However, his imprisonment, as well as his defiant refusal to cooperate with the establishment and comply with the military’s repressive demands, have further strengthened his political profile. As some commentators have noted, the imprisonment of Imamoglu – who denies the charges and also vows to “not comply” – could have the same unintended effect and make the mayor even more popular.

However, the situation is not entirely the same. Imamoglu is facing a deliberate and organized attempt to eliminate himself from the election race. The day before the police arrived at his address, pro-government media and the rector of Istanbul University - appointed by Erdogan - declared his degree invalid, citing alleged irregularities in his transfer from a private university. Since only university graduates are eligible to run for president, this decision would disqualify Imamoglu, who has announced that he will challenge it. Accusations of corruption and terrorism followed.

Labeling political opponents as “terrorists” is a practice adopted by Erdogan’s government after a failed military coup in 2016, when a section of the armed forces attempted to seize power. When Austrian author Peter Handke, who had been criticized for his support of the late Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic, was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2019, Erdogan strongly condemned the decision. Unprepared and without a teleprompter, he declared that the same prize had been awarded to “terrorists from Turkey!”, an obvious reference to me and my 2006 award. I was due to return from New York to Istanbul that day and was on the verge of canceling my flight when the president’s spokesman explained that the statement did not refer to me.

An Erdogan-controlled court has now sent Imamoglu to prison on corruption charges, but no terrorism charges have been filed. Such a charge would allow Erdogan to nominate his own candidate for mayor of Istanbul — a position his party has not won in three consecutive election cycles — and thereby, some fear, divert some of the city’s steady stream of tax revenue into promotional and propaganda activities for his own party.

By imprisoning Imamoglu, Erdogan is not only removing a more popular political rival - he is also trying to regain control of the vast resources he has been unable to access for the past seven years. If he succeeds, the city will be awash with nothing but Erdogan's image and the faces of his candidates in the upcoming presidential election.

This is no surprise to those who follow Turkish politics. For a decade, Turkey has not been a true democracy - it is merely an electoral democracy, where you can vote for your favorite candidate, but there is no freedom of speech or opinion. The Turkish state has been trying to force uniformity on its citizens for years. No one even mentions the many journalists and civil servants who have been arbitrarily arrested in recent days - either to create the illusion of the seriousness of the charges against Imamoglu, or in the hope that no one will even notice, while everything else is happening.

Now, after the arrest of the country's most popular politician - the candidate who would win the majority of votes in the upcoming national elections - even this limited form of democracy is coming to an end. It's unacceptable and disturbing, which is why more and more people are joining the latest protests. For now, no one can predict what will happen next.

The author is a writer and winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in Literature.

The column was published in The Guardian.

Translation: A.Š.