Ukraine gained independence from the Soviet Union (USSR) in 1991 with a population of around 52 million. It was the second largest country in the USSR, after Russia, which had a population of 147 million.
That number has almost halved 34 years later. After the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the war in the Donbas region, and Russia's invasion in 2022, the number of people living in the territory controlled by Kiev is estimated at around 29 million, according to estimates by the Ukrainian Institute of Demography. That's a 45 percent decrease.
Tens or even hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians leave the country every year, according to the Border Guard Service of Ukraine. Experts say that the longer the war lasts, the fewer people will return when it ends.
How many Ukrainians are there now in the country and abroad?
"The war made me decide to get my child out. We arrived in Warsaw in July 2022. We didn't plan to stay long. Everyone who left probably expected it to be only for two weeks to a month," says Lina Sizonenko from Poltava, who has been living in Poland with her daughter Maria for almost three years.
Millions of Ukrainians like Lina and Maria were forced to leave because of the war. The exact number of those who stayed in the country and those who fled is unclear. Ukraine has not conducted a census since 2001, and the statistics agency has partially stopped collecting and publishing demographic data, citing the difficulties brought about by the war.
War tends to worsen demographic trends by increasing mortality and decreasing birth rates. But in Ukraine, emigration has caused the largest population decline. The number of people leaving is "simply crazy," says Oleksandr Hladun, deputy director of the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life at the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences.
According to the latest figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), almost seven million Ukrainian refugees are currently living abroad. The majority of them, around 6,3 million, are in Europe. That figure includes around 1,3 million Ukrainians who have fled to Russia and Belarus or have been taken there. The figures likely come from Russian and Belarusian border services and are "impossible to verify," says Hladun.
The European Union invoked the Temporary Protection Directive for the first time in its history when Russia began its invasion, and member states offered millions of Ukrainians temporary residence, financial and housing benefits, and the right to work. Just under 4,3 million Ukrainians currently enjoy this status across the European Union (EU).
Some countries are considering allowing refugees to stay after the war ends, further reducing the chances of large numbers of Ukrainians returning home. The Czech Republic, home to nearly 400.000 Ukrainian refugees, recently passed a law that would allow those who are economically independent and have had protected status for at least two years to obtain a residence permit.
100.000 fewer babies are born each year
As millions of Ukrainians move abroad, the already low birth rate poses another problem. The fertility rate, or the number of children born per woman, needs to be 2,1 for a country's population to remain stable without immigration.
"Before the invasion (the total fertility rate) was 1,16. Since the invasion it has been 0,9," which by some estimates is a record low, according to Darina Marčak, deputy minister for social policy.
The low birth rate was exacerbated by the mobilization of men over the age of 25 and pressure on the government to further lower the minimum age for conscription.
According to UN statistics, Ukraine has about 1,5 million men aged 18 to 25.
"Some are hiding from mobilization, some have left, illegally crossing the border... Some minors who have yet to turn 18 may also go abroad, leaving fewer and fewer young people in Ukraine who want or can start families," says Hladun.
On the other hand, the mortality rate in Ukraine is elevated.
President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said that 46.000 soldiers have been killed in the invasion so far, which is probably less than the actual number.
Hladun, the demographer, says that in addition to Russian airstrikes, civilians are also being killed by other medical complications caused by the invasion – such as strokes and heart attacks caused by war stress. The number of deaths per year is now almost three times higher than the number of births, making Ukraine one of the countries with the highest death rates and the lowest birth rates.
Are more Ukrainians leaving the country today?
"I occasionally look at UNHCR numbers, and the number of (Ukrainian) refugees was decreasing until May 2024. The lowest number was 5,9 million, and then it started to grow again," says Volodymyr Panioto, head of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology.
According to him, the situation on the front lines, delays in weapons deliveries and the feeling that the war is here to stay are contributing to people's decision to leave, as well as "the fact that Russia is making progress, albeit slowly."
According to border crossing data, Ukrainians left the country 2024 times in 15.276.000, while 14.834.000 entries were recorded, a deficit of 442.000. This is almost three times compared to 2023.
How many people will return?
According to surveys conducted by the Center for Economic Strategy, a Ukrainian NGO, the share of refugees who definitely or probably want to return to Ukraine fell to less than 50 percent in November 2024, the first time since the invasion.
In November 2022, only ten percent of refugees said they definitely did not want to return to Ukraine, and by the end of 2024, that number had increased to 34 percent.
Polls by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology also show that 19 percent of Ukrainian refugees abroad have or have applied for citizenship of another country, and 45 percent would like to obtain it.
Panioto, the institute's director, says the number of people planning to stay abroad is growing by some 100.000-150.000 each month.
"They learn the language, they find jobs, their children have good prospects (abroad). We lose people who die at the front every month, but we lose 20, maybe 30 times more people a month (due to long-term emigration)."
How will Ukraine's population change after the war?
The Ukrainian Institute of Demography predicts that there will be 2035 million Ukrainians within the country's internationally recognized borders by 30.
"The forecast reflects the trend that will occur if nothing changes in the country... but it all depends on the year the war ends," the Institute said.
Accurate projections will not be possible until some time after the end of the war.
Hladun says Ukraine will need to conduct a census a year or two after the cessation of hostilities, to give refugees time to return or decide to stay abroad.
Alexei Chernyshov, Ukraine's deputy prime minister, says there are more than 60 million Ukrainians around the world and that the country is "doing everything to make Ukrainians think about returning."
"There will never be 52 million of us again," says Hladun.
"We need to plan our economy and social infrastructure for about 30 million people...and value quality of life and functional government in relation to population size."
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