When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Hungary, it is almost certain that he will not be arrested despite an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged war crimes in the Gaza Strip.
As a signatory to the Hague tribunal, Hungary is obliged to arrest him, but its internal legal situation is complicated and has given the government ample room to welcome him.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban publicly called out Netanyahu in December, shortly after the ICC issued an arrest warrant.
The Israeli leader was scheduled to arrive on Wednesday, April 2, for a four-day visit.
"I will guarantee him, if he comes, that the ICC verdict will have no effect in Hungary," Orban said.
Meanwhile, diplomatic sources told Radio Free Europe's Hungarian Service that the country has decided to withdraw from the ICC, although this cannot be officially confirmed at this time.
What are the political reasons?
The politics of all this are clear.
Orban has aligned himself closely with Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump, who has also criticized the court order.
Trump imposed sanctions on the ICC last month, criticizing as "baseless" its arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó welcomed the decision in a social media post, accusing the ICC of being a "political weapon."
The indictment also alleges that Netanyahu bears "criminal responsibility" for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity during the war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement, which the United States and the European Union have designated as a terrorist organization.
This includes "the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare and crimes against humanity, such as murder, persecution and other inhumane acts" from at least October 8, 2023 until at least May 20, 2024."
What are the legal regulations?
The legal situation is more complex.
The court cannot arrest anyone. It has no police to enforce its orders, but relies on the cooperation of member states.
The International Criminal Court is the last instance that initiates proceedings in cases where domestic authorities cannot or will not investigate them.
"It is not up to states to unilaterally determine the correctness of the court's legal decisions," court spokesman Fadi El-Abdalah told Radio Free Europe.
He adds that it is a "legal obligation to the court" to enforce those orders.
This view was supported by two lawyers interviewed by Radio Free Europe.
"If Mr. Netanyahu visits a member state like Hungary or Germany and is not arrested, that state is violating its obligations under the ICC's Rome Statute," says Kai Ambos, professor of criminal and international law at the University of Göttingen in Germany.
"The failure to execute the ICC arrest warrant undermines the legitimacy of the court," adds Ambos, who is also a war crimes judge at the Specialist Chambers for Kosovo, an international court established for crimes committed during the Kosovo conflict in the 1990s.
Tamás Adanyi, associate professor of international law in Hungary, agrees with the above, but he also pointed out one nuance.
"Globally speaking, there are countries where, whenever an international treaty is ratified, it becomes part of the law of that country," he said.
"Most other countries, where the typical language of multilateral treaties is not an official language... rely on a process called promulgation" to make an international obligation part of national law, Adanji explains.
Hungary ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court in 2001, during Orbán's first government.
However, it never implemented the second step, which basically means incorporating the statute into the country's national legal framework.
"The issue is difficult because Hungary has a legal obligation under international law to comply with this. However, Hungarian national law does not allow the authorities to do so," Adanyi said.
This explanation is also cited by the Hungarian authorities.
"Thanks to former President Janos Ader, we had the sense to never make this part of domestic law," government spokesman Gergelji Đuljas said on March 13.
However, Adanji points out that the law is not entirely clear on this issue, as Netanyahu is charged with crimes that have been considered part of customary international law since the 1940s.
"I am very convinced that those parts of the Rome Statute, which most states consider to be customary international law, should be implemented in Hungary even without formal promulgation," he said.
Is Hungary the only one?
Giulias cites another reason for not arresting Netanyahu. After the court order was issued, Germany gave a vague response.
"I find it difficult to imagine that we should be making arrests on the basis of this," said government spokesman Stefan Hebestreijt, adding that legal issues regarding the warrant must be clarified.
Then in January, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) chairman Friedrich Merz said he would find "ways and means" to invite Netanyahu to Germany.
Merck's party later won the parliamentary elections, and he is preparing to take office as the new chancellor.
Đuljas, the Hungarian government spokesman, stands by these words of Merco.
"Since a country of the size and power of Germany feels it must disregard its own domestic law because the International Criminal Court's decision is so absurd, what is the point of this whole thing?" he said.
What would be the consequences?
Merck's comments caused a major controversy in Germany.
Ambos says there could be "sanctions" for failure to execute arrest warrants, imposed by the ICC's Assembly of States Parties, which is responsible for various court matters, including the selection of judges and prosecutors and setting the budget.
"Such a situation arose precisely in connection with Vladimir Putin's visit and his non-arrest in Mongolia," recalls Ambos, referring to the Russian president's visit to Mongolia in September.
Putin is wanted by the ICC for the alleged war crime of an organized campaign to deport children from Ukrainian territories under Russian control.
"The consequences for Hungary could be that we might lose our right to vote in the Assembly of States Parties," warns Adanyi, adding that "a judicial investigation into this behavior of Hungary" could be launched.
However, the political impact could be quite limited.
Hungary is already isolated within the European Union. It is accused of democratic regression and restrictions on media freedom. Its pro-Russian views have also made it difficult for it in the diplomatic field.
"I am completely confident that there will be no arrests," Adanji says. "Netanyahu will definitely return home."
As of the writing of this article, the Hungarian government has not responded to Radio Free Europe's inquiries.
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