Volodymyr Zelensky went from being a television star to becoming the president of Ukraine with a landslide victory in the 2019 elections.
Now he could face an even bigger electoral challenge: putting his leadership of the country during the war on the ballot for the first time since Russia launched a general invasion more than three years ago.
Amid mounting pressure from Western backers, Ukrainian authorities are quietly laying the groundwork for new elections, a vote that would test the strength of Zelensky's patriotic support and whether war-weary Ukrainians want new leadership.
Officials have denied that preparations are underway, citing long-standing arguments that the state of emergency, which was declared shortly after the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, makes it impossible to hold any vote.
"We are not preparing to hold elections because elections during war are impossible according to the Constitution, current laws and common sense due to security challenges," Dmytro Litvin, a spokesman for the presidential office, told Radio Free Europe's (RFE) Ukrainian Service.
However, officials have actually begun to plan the details and consider details ranging from printing ballots, to ensuring security at polling stations, to ensuring that millions of Ukrainian refugees living outside the country can vote.
"I can see that in recent months there have been real preparations for the elections," said Oleksiy Koshel, who heads the non-governmental organization Committee of Voters of Ukraine. "We see a lot of signs of activity in election headquarters, advertisements quietly circulating, millions of special information bulletins about party leaders being distributed."
"The election campaign in Ukraine has de facto already begun," said Koshel.
Olena Davlikanova, a Kiev-based scholar and fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, said there were many signs that parties were preparing for new elections. But, she said, that would be impossible unless Russia actually agreed to a ceasefire.
"Many of us don't believe that (President Vladimir) Putin will keep his word," Davlikanova told RFE/RL. "Without a ceasefire in Ukraine, it is impossible to hold elections."
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First as part of a beloved comedy troupe and then as a fictional high school teacher catapulted to the presidency in the television series "Servant of the People," Zelensky won a landslide victory in 2019, defeating then-President Petro Poroshenko.
Ukrainians were drawn to his fresh, media-friendly personality, as well as his promises to normalize relations with Putin and Russia more broadly. But less than three years after Zelensky became president, Putin sent more than 100.000 troops into Ukraine, the largest land war in Europe since World War II.
Ukrainians have continued to support Zelensky's leadership, even as Ukrainian troops have suffered setback after setback over the past year.
Russian troops are slowly advancing in multiple locations. A much-vaunted counteroffensive in 2023 has failed. Military commanders and political leaders are arguing over how to boost recruitment and fill the empty ranks. The country's top military officer has been dismissed, as has the defense minister.
Ukrainian presidents are elected to five-year terms. Zelensky was due to run for re-election in 2024. However, government officials insist that holding new elections is legally impossible due to the state of emergency, let alone logistical obstacles.
That opened the door to criticism from outside. Putin, who has questioned the very existence of the Ukrainian state, accused Zelensky of being an illegitimate president for failing to hold elections. Last week, he suggested placing the entire country under a United Nations-backed transitional government.
"Nobody cares what Putin says, because Ukrainian laws are very clear: all power is legitimate unless the state of emergency is lifted and elections are organized properly," Davlikanova said. "So Putin can, you know what."
"Putin has offered UN supervision over Ukraine," she said. "We are saying to Moscow that we are offering UN supervision, because there have been no real, fair elections there since 1996."
However, there was also criticism from the US – the largest single supplier of weapons to the Ukrainian military.
Shortly before the controversial Oval Office meeting in February, US President Donald Trump, whose strained relationship with Zelensky dates back to his first term in the White House, called him a "dictator without an election."
External criticism has bolstered Zelensky's standing among Ukrainians. A poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that Zelensky's trust has doubled in recent weeks. Shortly after the Oval Office meeting, the Ukrainian parliament passed a resolution endorsing Zelensky and stating that new elections will be held only after a "comprehensive, just and sustainable peace" is established.
For Zelensky's supporters, this supports the decision that it is better to hold new elections sooner rather than later, in order to oust and thwart rivals: most notably Valery Zaluzhny, the popular former commander-in-chief who is now ambassador to London.
Zelensky dismissed Zaluzhny after he openly questioned the government's decisions in a text from November 2023.
Since arriving in London, Zaluzhny has said nothing publicly about challenging Zelensky in the election. However, he regularly appears at or near the top in opinion polls.
Other prominent political figures have also indicated they are considering running against Zelensky if there is an election. In February, Poroshenko, a wealthy businessman whom Zelensky defeated, aroused suspicion when he traveled to Washington for a meeting with administration officials.
Speaking at the conference, he said Zelensky should be working on a national coalition. "Instead, we have a very strange preparation for the elections," he said.
"According to my information, a decision has been made to organize and hold presidential elections as soon as possible after the end of hostilities," opposition lawmaker Alexei Honcharenko told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service.
Logistical obstacles
If a U.S.-brokered ceasefire occurs, election law requires at least 60 days for candidates to begin campaigning. If it were to start on April 20, Easter, as the Finnish president said he had suggested to Trump, that would mean the earliest the election could actually take place would be early July.
However, the logistical details of organizing are enormous: millions of Ukrainians are refugees in foreign countries; just getting them to vote is a major challenge. The same goes for allowing soldiers fighting on the front lines to cast their votes.
"Now there seems to be a consensus in society and among politicians that a longer period than that provided for by law is needed to prepare for elections after the end of the state of emergency," Oleh Didenko, who heads the Central Election Commission, said in an interview with Ukrainian Justice.
While Ukrainians have been happy to accept American weapons, voters are skeptical about how solid American support will be in the future, Davlikanova said.
"Whatever the Americans do, whoever they talk to, the Ukrainian people understand," she said.
"So we understand that we will be relying on ourselves," she said.
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