The United States (US) is proposing the creation of a demilitarized zone in Ukraine that would be controlled by both Ukraine and Russia. It would be a zone 15 kilometers deep on both sides of the current front line between Ukrainian armed forces and Russian troops.
The idea was put forward by the US President's special representative for Ukraine, former General Keith Kellogg, in an interview with Fox News. "This means that a clearly controlled zone of 30 kilometers will be created. Possible violations will be recorded," the US special envoy said, adding that control over this security zone could be taken by a "coalition of the willing."
Ukraine seems ready for such a temporary, demilitarized zone.
The American general also said that Ukraine could eventually regain control over lost territories, as was the case with Germany, which was divided into two states after World War II and reunited in 1990. Or like the Baltic states, which became part of the USSR, which the West did not recognize.
"The territory you now control and have fought for belongs to you, and what will happen in five or ten years is another question. That means freezing the fighting in the current positions, and that is exactly what the Ukrainians are prepared to do," Kellogg said.
Would Ukrainians freeze the war?
At the time of publication of this article, official Kyiv had not yet commented on the matter.
Taras Shamaid, head of the "Space of Freedom" movement, demanded that the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially announce whether Ukraine is really ready to withdraw its troops by 15 kilometers and which areas should be demilitarized.
"By what laws would that territory be regulated? What kind of authorities would exist there? What would be the mission of foreign troops in that zone? Would troops from neutral states or perhaps from states on Russia's side be stationed there? What would those troops do if the Russians suddenly wanted to occupy all or part of that 30-kilometer security zone," the activist wrote on his Facebook page. There are still no answers to those questions.
Will the US put pressure on Russia?
Petro Burkovsky, executive director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Democratic Initiatives Ilka Kucheriva, believes that the US proposal is reasonable. Ukraine, he believes, could agree to it. As a positive historical example of a demilitarized zone, he cites the experience of the 1979 Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel.
At that time, the United States acted as a mediator, a demilitarized zone was established under the control of American observers, and the troops were separated after a ceasefire.
Burkovsky believes that the withdrawal of troops and a temporary ceasefire could be the first tangible step towards ending the war. A 30-day ceasefire and the establishment of a XNUMX-kilometer demilitarized zone would be theoretically possible, he believes, but he adds that the most important prerequisite is the consent of Russia, which has not shown such readiness so far. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that he "has not yet heard any statements from Kiev regarding the demilitarized zone."
Oleksandr Chara, executive director of the Kiev-based Center for Defense Strategies, believes that the American proposal for a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone remains only "an idea on paper."
"Russia has the resources and it has a goal. They will not stop until we surrender and can combine diplomatic strategies while the Americans continue to put pressure on us. In the meantime, the European coalition that supports us will be crushed, while they continue to kill us," Chara said.
Troop withdrawal – Ukraine already has a bad experience with this
Vladislav Seleznyov, a military journalist and former chief of the press service of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army, believes that the proposed format for ending the war is ineffective. Ukraine, he says, has already "experienced" this with the withdrawal of troops from the front line in Donbass from 2014 to 2022.
During that period, there were more than 20 ceasefire agreements, but they all proved ineffective, Seleznyov points out. "Even the OSCE monitoring mission was unable to ensure a permanent and secure line of separation along the front. The hope that it will succeed this time is probably pointless."
The head of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, Serhiy Kuzan, is somewhat more optimistic in a statement to Deutsche Welle (DW). The idea of separating troops and creating a demilitarized zone is realistic, he says, but the key is effective control of that security zone. It is unlikely that European countries from the "coalition of the willing" would agree to send their troops to the zone due to the risk of escalation and possible casualties among peacekeepers, Kuzan believes.
Ukrainian experts agree that the American proposal must be carefully crafted and can only be implemented if it is economically impossible for Russia to continue an aggressive war. For this, they believe, sanctions and pressure on Moscow are necessary.
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