Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has arguably never had more international clout. He was set to host the first direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in three years yesterday, just days after his longtime militant enemy, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), announced its disbandment.
His growing capital as an international statesman, working to stabilize Eastern Europe and the Middle East and receiving praise for it from US President Donald Trump, further strengthens Turkey's regional influence, writes Reuters.
However, the timing of this seems strange and even painful to many in the country, as they fear it could serve Erdogan's domestic political goals.
The arrest and imprisonment of Erdogan's main political rival, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, in March and April sparked the biggest protests in a decade, over what critics call a politically motivated and undemocratic prosecution.
Imamoglu denies the allegations, while Ankara rejects criticism of autocratic behavior.
Yet these two seemingly parallel universes, international and domestic, underscore Erdogan's tendency, during his 22 years in power in Turkey, to turn his attention abroad when political or economic problems arise at home, a Reuters analysis points out.
In line with this pattern, Erdogan blocked the planned NATO expansion in May 2022 at a time when inflation in Turkey was heading towards 85 percent, and finally approved Sweden's membership only at the beginning of last year, in exchange for concessions.
“Erdogan has never been such a key player in geopolitics,” said Birol Baskan, a political analyst from Turkey. “There have been dramatic shifts in geopolitics, most notably the re-election of Donald Trump, although I think Erdogan’s biggest gain is undoubtedly Syria.”
According to Turkish government officials, Erdogan's support for Syrian rebels over the past decade finally paid off for both them and him when they toppled President Bashar al-Assad in December, leaving Ankara with strong influence in Damascus and beyond as the region tried to recover from the war.
Erdogan's influence grew further in January when Trump returned to the White House, given their close relationship from Trump's first term.
Trump, who boasts of a "great relationship" with Erdogan, said the Turkish president would be a good host for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.
Erdogan, who in the past week alone has received calls and visits from the leaders of the US, Russia, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, France, Italy, NATO and other world powers, called for seizing the opportunity for peace between the neighbors on the Black Sea to the north.
Two seemingly parallel universes, international and domestic, underscore Erdogan's tendency, during his 22 years in power, to turn his attention abroad when political or economic problems arise at home.
Peace may also be on the horizon in southern Turkey, where PKK militants have largely retreated after a 40-year insurgency against the Turkish state, during which more than 40.000 people have died.
Weakened after years of Turkish bombing, the group announced on Monday that it had decided to disband and disarm at a congress last week in northern Iraq.
Although the road ahead is uncertain, it represents a significant victory for Erdogan, who has been trying to exploit the vulnerability of Kurdish forces linked to the PKK in northern Syria since the fall of Assad, counting on Trump to soon withdraw US troops working with them.
Musavat Dervisoglu, chairman of the opposition nationalist IYI party, warned that Erdogan was using the PKK's decision to secure a "lifetime presidency," as the support of Kurdish voters could allow him to enact a new constitution and extend his term beyond 2028, when his current one expires.
Erdogan says that passing a new constitution is his priority, but has not said whether he intends to run again.
Imamoglu's lead over Erdogan in the polls has increased slightly since the mayor was arrested in March, which hit the Turkish lira and set back the central bank's efforts to combat years of galloping inflation.
However, a Turkish court last week banned Imamoglu from accessing his social media account, X, which could further isolate him as he awaits trial on corruption charges.
Meanwhile, overnight protests in which tens of thousands of Turks across the country took to the streets to denounce the president for allegedly abusing the judiciary for political purposes, accusations he denies, have largely died down.
Harun Armagan, vice-chairman for foreign affairs of Erdogan's AK Party, said that Imamoglu's case "is not a political process, but a judicial one," which is separate from "significant political developments taking place in parallel."
“The disbandment and disarmament of the PKK... will be recorded as a historical turning point in the context of Turkish politics,” he told Reuters.
While some European leaders condemned Imamoglu's arrest, many also supported Erdogan's offer to host peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, including French President Emmanuel Macron, who stressed the "necessity" of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire in a phone call with Erdogan on Sunday.
As another diplomatic point for Erdogan, Reuters cites that Europe has been turning more openly to Turkey in recent months in an effort to strengthen its defenses and provide guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire that Trump is trying to push through.
Turkey has the second-largest army in NATO and produces combat drones that Ukraine has widely used against Russia. At the same time, Ankara refuses to impose Western sanctions on Moscow, skillfully balancing between the warring parties and preserving their trust.
“Even if the peace talks in Istanbul stall, Erdogan will take the credit. He loves having his name attached to a peace agreement,” says Onur Işçi, associate professor of international relations at Kadir Has University.
"He is in an extremely strong diplomatic position and seems to be reaping more and more benefits from it."
The latest point was scored on Tuesday when Trump, during a visit to Riyadh, suddenly announced that the United States would lift all sanctions on Syria, after, according to sources, Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested that he do so.
Even if the peace talks in Istanbul stall, Erdogan will take the credit. He loves having his name attached to a peace agreement.
Erdogan and Trump have had at least three phone conversations since the US president's re-election, and on Wednesday they spoke again with other leaders about the decision regarding Syria.
Trump also appointed his longtime adviser Thomas Barrack as US ambassador to Turkey, who said upon his arrival last week that he wanted to improve relations from "great" to "extraordinary."
Chances for peace are weak
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Kiev's challenge to meet in person with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Turkey yesterday, sending instead a second-tier delegation to planned peace talks, while Zelensky said Kiev's delegation would be led by the defense minister.
It will be the first direct talks between the parties since March 2022, but hopes for significant progress have been further dampened by Trump's statement that there will be no progress without his meeting with Putin.
Zelensky said Putin's decision not to attend and to send what he called a "decorative" team shows that the Russian leader is not serious about ending the war. Russia accused Ukraine of trying to "put on a show" over the negotiations.
It was not clear when the talks would actually begin.
"We cannot run around the world looking for Putin," Zelensky said after meeting with Erdogan in Ankara.
"I feel disrespect from Russia. There is no meeting time, no agenda, no high-level delegation, this is personal disrespect. To Erdogan, to Trump," Zelensky told reporters.
Zelensky added that he will not be going to Istanbul now either.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday that the only way to make progress in efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine is through direct talks between Trump and Putin.
Speaking to reporters in Antalya, Rubio said he would travel to Istanbul today for meetings with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the Ukrainian delegation, but stressed that he did not have high expectations for the talks.
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