“Let's shoot,” Karol Navrocki said, before heavy rock music started and the camera cut to scenes of the presidential candidate, who is supported by Poland's main nationalist opposition party, firing various weapons.
The footage, shared on social media by a historian and amateur boxer, was designed to contrast his tough-guy image with that of a more urbane opponent, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Tsaskowski of the liberal ruling Civic Coalition (KO), who also participated in voluntary military training.
Poles are heading to the polls today for a presidential election that the pro-European government in Warsaw says can revive efforts to democratize the country, while nationalist opponents see it as an opportunity to set Poland on a path inspired by US President Donald Trump.
According to polls, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, Tchaskowski (53), an ally of the ruling coalition, is considered the likely winner - although only after the second round scheduled for June 1, Reuters points out.
In second place in the race to succeed Andrzej Duda, who has served two terms, is amateur boxer and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki (42), who is backed by the opposition nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party. The third candidate is far-right candidate Slawomir Menzen (38). Both are supporters of Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, and are known for their anti-immigrant stance and fight against "wok" liberal values.
All three promise to continue providing military support to Kiev, but differ in their views on how much aid should be provided to refugees from Ukraine.
The fact that both Navrocki and Tchaskovski felt they had to show off in preparations for a possible armed conflict underscores how important security is to voters in a country that plans to more than double the size of its army to half a million soldiers to protect itself from what it sees as a threat from Russia.
Whether he's sweating it out in the boxing gym or helping a flood victim fix his house, Navrocki strives to build an image of someone who is both strong and down-to-earth.
Although he has been subjected to a barrage of criticism from the liberal media, and his campaign has been rocked by accusations that he acquired a second property from an elderly man in exchange for a promise of care that he did not fulfill, his strategy is still working with some voters.
“He would be a better ... military leader,” said Elżbieta Jożwiak, a 65-year-old retired teacher who attended Navrocki’s rally in the eastern town of Garwolin. “Why? Because he is masculine, strong, he repels the attacks he is constantly exposed to.”
For others, Tchaskovski, who previously served as deputy foreign minister and was a member of the European Parliament, would be a better leader in uncertain times because of his experience in international relations.
“That man is intelligent... educated, he has international contacts,” said engineer Monika Kwasniewska as she walked through a shopping mall in downtown Warsaw.
However, despite an advantage of about eight percentage points over Navrocki, Tchaskovski, who has about 32 percent support in the polls, could face difficulties in the second round of elections between the two, political analysts believe.
The son of a jazz musician, Tjaskowski has had trouble winning over voters in rural areas, where Navrocki is often seen as someone who better understands their problems with the high cost of living and opposition to migration.
Meeting with Trump
Nawrocki met with Trump at the White House in early May, a visit that his supporters say shows their candidate already has the attention of the leader of Poland's most powerful military ally.
"Such a gesture from the President of the United States speaks volumes," said PiS MP Michal Wojsik. "Karol Nawrocki, from the perspective of strengthening Polish-American relations, is the best candidate."
PiS has positioned itself as a vocal supporter of Trump and rejects the Civic Coalition (KO)'s arguments that the European Union should have a greater role in the bloc's security.
In March, Nawrocki told private broadcaster TV Republika that cooperation with the European Union should focus on economic issues, and not encroach on "areas of strategic and existential importance for the Polish state."
“Not calling into question the North Atlantic Treaty Organization!” he added.
A source from Tchaskowski's campaign said they wanted to highlight their candidate's experience and connections in European centers of power, in contrast to the less prominent role of Nawrocki, who heads the Polish Institute of National Remembrance.
Unlike his opponent, Tšaskovski advocates for a stronger role for the European Union, parallel to the NATO alliance.
"Today, our security is equally provided by the United States and the European Union, a strong North Atlantic alliance, together," he said at a rally in the central city of Lodz on Friday.
For Filip Pazderski, an analyst at the Stefan Batory Foundation in Warsaw, these differences could affect Poland's approach to potential peace talks involving Ukraine.
"Quite certainly, if Rafal Tchaskovski becomes president, Poland will support the European Union's position and work to strengthen the European presence in these talks," he said.
"While that might not be so important to Mr. Navrocki, it would be more important for him to support the position of the United States, which believes that perhaps the European Union does not need to be present at the negotiating table in these discussions."
Cooperation with Turkey
Tchaskowski promised that if he wins the election, he would cooperate with the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk to reverse changes to the judiciary introduced by the PiS party, which critics in the European Union and in Poland itself have argued have undermined the democratic balance of power.
PiS lost its parliamentary majority in October 2023, when Tusk's centrist coalition won elections, ending almost a decade of their rule, amid a wave of popular discontent over their policies towards women and minorities. However, President Duda used his veto power to block most of Tusk's reform attempts.
“The stakes in these elections are just as high as on October 15,” Tusk told parliament last month. “That’s why I hope for mobilization… It’s hard to govern with a hostile president and all these vetoes.”
In Poland, the president has the right to veto laws and the function of commander-in-chief of the armed forces, but his substantive executive powers remain limited.
Romanians and Portuguese also vote
In addition to Poles, millions of voters in Romania and Portugal will also go to the polls today in an electoral "super-week" that will determine the direction of their democracies at a time of heightened political, trade and economic tensions, the Guardian reports.
In Romania, the centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicăușor Dan, a quiet mathematician, will face a far-right candidate in the second round of the presidential election, trying to keep Romania on its pro-European path and appease markets by forming a government.
A recent poll showed Dan (55) in a dead heat with Eurosceptic frontrunner Đorđe Simion, who, riding a wave of popular discontent with the main parties, secured victory in the first round on May 4, leading to the fall of the pro-Western government.
Dan has promised swift talks with pro-European, pro-NATO parties and already has experience in forming majorities as an independent mayor of Bucharest for two terms.
Romania appeared to be turning to Moscow last November after right-wing newcomer Calin Đorđescu won the most votes in the first round of presidential elections. But the country's highest court annulled the election over suspicions of Russian interference. Moscow has denied the allegations.
Simion, who is seen as the successor to Georgesescu, opposes aid to Ukraine and criticizes the leadership of the European Union. He said he does not rule out early parliamentary elections to get the desired prime minister and a governing majority.
In Portugal, where snap parliamentary elections are being held just 14 months after the previous vote, the status quo looks set to continue. Many Portuguese are expecting today's parliamentary elections to produce a government that can deal with the challenges posed by global trade tensions and other geopolitical issues, and an end to the endless cycle of elections every year.
The center-right Prime Minister, Luis Montenegro, called the election in response to increasing questions about his family's business activities.
Recent polls predict a similar outcome to last time: the Democratic Alliance (AD), to which Montenegro belongs, has around 33%, the opposition Socialist Party (PS) around 26%, and the far-right Chega party around 17%.
The Guardian estimates that Montenegro will likely fail to win a majority again - even if it reaches an agreement with the small Liberal Initiative party, which has around 6% support - and will face difficulties in governing, especially if the Socialists make good on their threats to block its legislative program.
Interference by foreign actors?
Poland said on Wednesday it had uncovered a possible attempt to interfere in the presidential election campaign through Facebook ads suspected of being funded from abroad, a claim the social platform disputed.
"The NASK Disinformation Analysis Center has identified political ads on the Facebook platform that may be funded from abroad. The materials were displayed in Poland," NASK, the national cybersecurity research institute, said.
“The accounts that participated in the campaign spent more on political materials in the last 7 days than any other election committee,” the NASK statement said. It did not specify which country the money may have come from.
A spokesman for Meta (META.O), the parent company of Facebook, dismissed claims of possible foreign interference. “Anyone who wants to run ads on our platforms that relate to social issues, elections or politics must go through a verification process to prove their identity and residency in the country where the ads are running,” the spokesman said.
"Our investigation confirmed that the administrator associated with these pages is authentic and based in Poland. We have seen no evidence of foreign interference."
NASK stated that Meta blocked the disputed ads after the institute reported them. However, a Meta spokesperson told Reuters that this was not true and that the ads were not blocked.
NASK added that the ads allegedly supported one of the candidates in the election, but in reality they could have aimed to harm him and destabilize the situation in the country.
Andrzej Kozlowski, head of the Narrative Analysis and Fact-Checking Team at NASK, told state broadcaster TVP Info that the ads were trying to discredit Navrocki and Menzen, while seemingly supporting Tchaskovsky - but that it could all have been a provocation.
Poland has previously argued that its role as a hub for providing assistance to Ukraine makes the country a target for Russian espionage activities, sabotage and cyberattacks.
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