Poles go to the polls tomorrow for a presidential election. The pro-European government in Warsaw hopes the vote will renew a waning democratic enthusiasm, while its nationalist opponents see the vote as an opportunity for Poland to take a path inspired by US President Donald Trump.
According to polls, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Tchaskowski (53), also an ally of the ruling coalition, should win, although most likely only in the second round of the election on June 1st.
Second in the polls is Karol Nawrocki (42), an amateur boxer and conservative historian backed by the nationalist opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party. Third is far-right candidate Slavomir Mencen (38).
Both Nawrocki and Menzen are supporters of Trump and his "Make America Great Again" movement. They support his anti-immigration stance and fight against "woke" liberal values. The winner will succeed nationalist ally Andrzej Duda, whose second term is ending.
PiS lost its parliamentary majority in the 2023 elections.
Tchaskowski moved to the right during the campaign in an attempt to win over more conservative voters. If he wins, he has promised to work with Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government to undo changes to Poland's judiciary introduced under PiS, which critics in the European Union and at home have said undermined democratic checks and balances.
PiS lost its majority to Tusk's centrist coalition in the October 2023 elections after nearly a decade in power, on a wave of popular anger over the erosion of women's and minority rights. But Duda used a presidential veto to block much of Tusk's reform efforts.
"The stakes in this election are just as high as they were on October 15. So I hope for voter mobilisation. It is difficult to govern with a hostile president, with all these vetoes," Tusk said. In Poland, the president has the right to veto laws and serves as the supreme commander of the military, but has limited executive powers.
All three promise continued military assistance to Ukraine
With the war in neighboring Ukraine, which may be entering its final phase after more than three years of fighting, Tchaskoski, Navrotsky and Menzen have boasted about their qualifications as war leaders. All three have pledged to continue to support Kiev militarily, but differ on the amount of aid that should be provided to refugees from Ukraine.
Nawrocki and Menzen oppose Ukraine's membership in NATO and emphasize that Poland's security interests are with Washington, while Tchaskowski calls for a greater role for the EU in resolving conflicts and preserving European security.
"We support Ukraine in its efforts to defeat post-Soviet Russia. That is obvious. It is in Poland's strategic interest to repel the neo-imperialist threat from Russia," Nawrocki said in a televised debate on Monday.
"As president, I will build a Polish-American alliance and will not agree to the EU becoming a replacement for NATO," added Nawrocki. Echoing Trump's narrative and exploiting growing voter fatigue, Nawrocki and Menzen argue that the interests of ethnic Poles should take precedence over those of Ukrainian refugees.
"They come from Ukraine, register with doctors, wait in long lines, and then return home. This is medical tourism that we pay for," Menzen warned at a campaign rally in February.
According to polls, Tšaskovski is winning around 32 percent of the vote, while Navrocki is winning 24 percent. Mentzen is at around ten percent support.
Tšaskovski could struggle in the second round
Despite his advantage, Tšaskovski could struggle to win in the second round, political observers believe.
Tšaskovski, the son of a jazz musician, has had trouble attracting voters in rural areas where Navrocki is often seen as someone who better understands their problems with the high cost of living and resistance to migration.
"Navrocki is simply close to my heart... Tchaskovsky's smile is not sincere at all," said 38-year-old Anna Ceslik, a resident of Garwolin, a small town east of Warsaw.
However, support for Navrock has fallen in recent weeks due to accusations that he lied about his financial situation and concealed information about an apartment he acquired from an ailing pensioner.
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