Second round of presidential elections in Romania: The country's orientation depends on the outcome

Romanians are choosing today in the second round of the presidential election between far-right Eurosceptic Gheorghe Simion and pro-Western reformist Nicusor Dan, whose victory would keep the country on a pro-European course and reassure investors.

Simion, the 38-year-old leader of the ultranationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, outscored ten other candidates in the first round of the May 4th election, winning 41 percent of the vote on a wave of widespread citizen dissatisfaction with mainstream parties.

Dan, the 55-year-old independent centrist mayor of Bucharest, won 21 percent of the vote in the first round.

Most opinion polls between the two election rounds gave Simeon an advantage, while the latest showed him and Dunn tied, according to Reuters.

Simion, whose first-round victory led to the fall of Romania's pro-Western government, opposes further aid to Ukraine, is critical of the European Union (EU) leadership, and advocates conservative policies and close ties to United States President (US) Donald Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.

He is also known for advocating for the return of Romania to its 1940 borders, which include parts of Bulgaria, Moldova, and Ukraine, and as an opponent of LGBT rights.

Simion, who is campaigning under the slogan "Romania First," said that if he wins, he cannot rule out early parliamentary elections to gain the desired governing majority in the country of 19 million people.

A Simeon victory could isolate Romania, reduce investment and make the country a less predictable and less cooperative NATO member in terms of military aid to Kiev, which would play into Russia's hands, according to Reuters.

Simion became a leading figure on the far right after right-wing populist Calin Đorđescu, who won the most votes in last year's annulled election, was banned from running in March. The Constitutional Court annulled the election after allegations that Russia had conducted a coordinated online campaign in Đorđescu's favor, which Moscow denied.

Unlike Simion, Dan is strongly pro-EU and pro-NATO, points to the importance of Romanian support for Ukraine, and promises to crack down on corruption, reduce economic inequality, and quickly negotiate with pro-Western parties on forming a government.

The quiet mathematician, educated at the Sorbonne, was an anti-corruption activist before entering politics in 2016, when he founded the Union for the Salvation of Romania party. He is described as a methodical and calm family man, who often walks his daughter to school.

Dan's electorate is the college-educated population of large cities, while Simion is counting on the votes of the working-class diaspora and residents of small towns and villages, according to Reuters.

Romanian MEP Siegfried Mureșan, vice-president of the European People's Party (EPP), said that Romanians are not only deciding today on the new president, but also on the government and the overall orientation of the country in the coming years.

The President of Romania has certain executive powers, including commanding the army and chairing the Defense Council, which decides on military aid and defense spending. The President appoints the Prime Minister and appoints the chief judges, prosecutors, and heads of the secret services, and has influence over foreign policy, as he can veto EU decisions.

However, the Romanian parliament, or the government that emerges from the majority, has greater powers than the president. The parliamentary majority can overturn many of the president's decisions, must approve the choice of his candidate for prime minister, and can thwart attempts to call early elections.

The outgoing parliament is almost evenly divided into three camps - the center-left, the center-right, and the far right.

Regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, a new ruling majority will not be able to be formed without the largest parliamentary party - the Social Democratic Party, which is divided into a pro-Western and far-right wing, according to Reuters.

Analysts do not rule out the possibility of forming a minority government, which would seek support from different parties, depending on the topic on the agenda, which would prolong political instability.

The winner of the election, who will succeed Klaus Iohannis as head of state, will be tasked with nominating a prime minister and influencing the rapid formation of a new government to reduce Romania's budget deficit, the largest in the EU, and avoid a downgrade of the country's credit rating.