Although information about weapons from Serbia reaching the Ukrainian army has been circulating for years, only now has Moscow decided to react sharply.
According to Igor Novaković, a senior associate at the Center for International and Security Affairs (ISAC Fund), the answer to the question of why there has been no public criticism of Serbia's position in this regard from Russia so far probably lies in political timing.
"It was obviously assessed that the moment was opportune, after Aleksandar Vučić's visit to Moscow on May 9, to take advantage of his relatively unstable political position, and perhaps to potentially gain some benefits. This could certainly be in the context of the contract on long-term natural gas supply, which, despite announcements, was not signed during Vučić's visit," Novaković told "Vijesti".
Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) announced on Thursday that Serbia continues to supply Ukraine with ammunition, stating that the purpose is "to kill and maim Russian soldiers and civilians."
Novaković recalls that as early as 2022, information appeared on pro-Russian Telegram channels about Serbian weapons ending up on the Ukrainian battlefield.
Such criticism was unlikely because it is in principle convenient for Russia to have at least one country in Europe that has not imposed sanctions, and it can present this in its internal discourse.
The same information appeared in the first half of 2023, when a confidential Pentagon document was leaked, stating that Serbia had allegedly agreed to send weapons to Ukraine, despite its official stance on military neutrality.
"However, in a formal legal sense, Serbia does not supply Ukraine, and there the matter is at least formally clear since the Serbian side strictly respects the licensing system, while third parties who further re-export these weapons are in violation," says Novaković.
He assumes that there have been no such criticisms so far because it is in principle convenient for Russia to have at least one country in Europe that has not imposed sanctions, and that it can present it that way in its internal discourse.
When asked what the long-term impact of such a reaction could be, he believes that there will be none and that it was done only to send a certain message.
"It is likely that the authorities in Serbia will either ignore this or try to deny it by emphasizing the obvious, which is that in a formal legal sense, Serbia is not responsible," said Novaković.
In a scathing statement titled “Serbia is trying to shoot Russia in the back,” the SVR said that the fake certificates of the ammunition’s end users and intermediary countries were “a front for anti-Russian activities.” It added that Serbia was sending ammunition to Ukraine through NATO intermediaries, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Bulgaria, as well as some African countries.
President Vučić said that Serbia and Russia will jointly investigate how ammunition produced in Serbia reached Ukraine.
He told Radio Television of Serbia (RTS) that he discussed the export of Serbian weapons to Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his visit to Moscow on May 9th, and denied some of the SVR's claims.
"We have formed a working group together with Russian partners to establish the facts. Some of the things that were stated in it are not true," Vučić told RTS on Thursday evening.
As he stated, "for example, they correctly say that there is a contract with the Czech Republic," but "no permission was given and none of the missiles were delivered."
The SVR statement stated that "the contribution of the Serbian defense industry to the war initiated by the West, the outcome of which Europe would like to see as a 'strategic defeat' of Russia, is reflected in hundreds of thousands of shells for multiple rocket launchers and howitzers, and in a million bullets for small arms."
Vučić also said that domestic factories must live and work and that around 24.000 people work directly in Serbia's defense industry, and that weapons are now being directed to the Serbian Army.
Serbia wants to join the European Union, but Russia remains its largest gas supplier, while the country's only oil refinery, NIS, is majority-owned by Gazprom and Gazpromneft.
Although it has refused to join Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Serbia has condemned Moscow's policies at the United Nations and expressed support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, including in Russian-controlled territories. Vučić has also met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at least three times.
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