Nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland's presidential election, dealing a serious blow to the centrist government's efforts to solidify Warsaw's pro-European orientation.
In a victory for European conservatives inspired by US President Donald Trump, Nawrocki won 50,89 percent of the vote, election commission data showed. The result signals further political deadlock as the new president is expected to use his veto to thwart Prime Minister Donald Tusk's liberal agenda.
Analysts and diplomats have assessed that Navrocki's victory will further strain relations with Ukraine and embolden conservatives in Central Europe inspired by Trump.
Tusk's government is trying to reverse controversial judicial reforms introduced by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which lost power 18 months ago, but current President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has so far blocked those attempts. As president, Nawrocki is expected to continue the same practice.
Judicial reforms have strained Warsaw's relations with Brussels under PiS. The European Union's top court ruled that the new mechanism for appointing judges did not guarantee their impartiality, opening the door to challenges to rulings. Brussels sued Poland after its Constitutional Court questioned the primacy of EU law.
Navrocki's rival, Rafal Tšaskovski, a candidate from Tusk's ruling Civic Coalition (KO), had declared victory immediately after the release of an exit poll on Sunday evening, which showed the result to be extremely uncertain.
"I am sorry that I failed to convince the majority of citizens of my vision of Poland," Tšaskovski said on the Iks network and congratulated Navrocki on his victory.
Navrocki, a conservative historian and amateur boxer, who was supported by PiS, presented the election as a referendum on Tusk's 18-month-old government.
"We want to live in a safe, economically strong country that cares for the weakest. A country that counts on international, European and transatlantic relations," Nawrocki wrote on the X network last night. "You can be sure that, as head of state, I will not give in on any issue that is important for Poland and Poles."
Navrocki's victory has already unsettled investors. The Polish stock market, one of the world's best performers this year, fell as much as 2 percent after the results were announced, the Economist reported. The zloty also weakened against the euro.
"Everything was on the edge," Patrik Marek, a 32-year-old IT specialist, told Reuters. "Feelings are certainly mixed at the moment. But the small difference tells us how almost evenly divided we are as voters."
Navrocki's victory came just two weeks after the election of centrist candidate Nikusor Dan as president of Romania, dealing a blow to far-right and nationalist forces in Central Europe.
Nationalist and Eurosceptic politicians from the region congratulated Navrocz. Gheorghe Simion, the defeated hard-right candidate in the Romanian elections, wrote on the X network: “Poland WON,” while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hailed a “fantastic victory.”
We want to live in a safe, economically strong country that cares for the weakest. A country that counts on international, European and transatlantic relations. You can be sure that, as head of state, I will not give in on any issue that is important for Poland and Poles.
Reuters writes that this result could also give a boost to the Eurosceptic opposition leader in the Czech Republic, Andrej Babiš, a former prime minister who is leading in the polls ahead of the October election. Babiš sent "heartfelt congratulations" to Iks.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was confident that the EU could continue its "very good cooperation" with Poland.
Krzysztof Izdebski, director of public policy at the Batory Foundation, said this result means that “Trump will have more influence on Polish politics.”
Nawrocki (42), a political newcomer, based his campaign on a promise to put economic and social policies at the service of Poles, not other nations, including refugees from Ukraine.
He said he would protect Poland's sovereignty and criticized what he said was Brussels' excessive interference in the country's internal affairs.
Although parliament has key powers, the president has the right to veto laws and could use it on a range of issues. Overriding a presidential veto requires a qualified majority, which Tusk's coalition currently lacks.
The Economist predicts that the victory of the hard right will cause a crisis within Tusk's motley coalition, which brings together everyone from progressive leftists to the conservative Peasants' Party.
“PiS will undoubtedly try to persuade right-leaning MPs to switch sides and bring down the government. Even if it fails to do so, the next parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2027. In any case, Tusk now acts as a prime minister without real power,” the Economist reports.
Poland in first place
During the campaign, Navrocki cultivated the image of a tough guy, posting footage from the shooting range and boxing rings.
While Tchaskowski emphasized his European credentials, Nawrocki met with Trump at the White House and received the US president's support for his candidacy for the highest office in Poland.
Unlike other Eurosceptics in Central Europe, such as Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico or Hungarian Orban, Navrocki supports providing military aid to Ukraine to defend itself from a three-year Russian invasion, Reuters writes.
However, he has stated that, if elected, he will oppose Ukraine's membership in Western alliances, a stance consistent with declining support for Ukrainians among Poles, who have hosted more than a million refugees from their neighborhood.
His PiS supporters, while in power until the end of 2023, supported Ukraine's accelerated accession to the EU and NATO.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Navrocki yesterday and said he looked forward to future "fruitful cooperation" with Poland.
Critics of Navrocki say he is stoking animosity toward Ukrainian refugees at a time when the far right is highlighting issues of migration, the cost of living and security. He has touted his campaign slogan, "Poland First."
"Let's help others, but first let's take care of our own citizens," he posted on social media in April.
Over the past two weeks, the candidates have largely struggled for the support of voters who voted for other candidates in the first round, especially for the far-right Slavomir Mencen, who came in third with 15 percent support.
Tchaskovsky tried to attract them with promises of deregulation. Navrocki emphasized his biography as the head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), support for the right to own weapons, traditional family and Christian values, but also a critical tone towards Ukraine, in line with Menzen's views. His wife Marta, a civil servant, and three children had a prominent place in the campaign.
A cloudy past
For many of Navrocki's opponents, the most troubling aspect of his victory is his troubled past. Questions have been raised about how he acquired an apartment from a pensioner and his admissions that he had participated in mass brawls with other football hooligans in his twenties. In the final weeks of the campaign, journalists reported that in the early 2000s he had arranged for sex workers to be hired by guests at a hotel where he worked. He denies the allegations.
"All my sports activities were based on the strength of my heart, the strength of my muscles, my fists," said Navrocki, an amateur boxer, during a debate. "It was a fair competition, regardless of form."
His PiS supporters have accused the government of being behind the controversy with the help of Polish security services and liberal media. The government rejects these accusations.
Radoslav Markovski, a political scientist at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Warsaw, finds it worrying that "a man without political qualifications, who confuses basic concepts and has a murky past" can become president.
Other Poles are more concerned that Nawrocki's rhetoric could alienate European allies.
“Poland has always been at the center of European wars,” said Marcin, a voter from Warsaw. “No one will come to defend us if we cut ourselves off from the rest of the continent,” he told The Economist.
For PiS supporters, Navrocki's victory represents a triumph over the international liberal elite.
Navrocki portrayed the elections as a referendum on the government, which he described as a metropolitan elite that was alienated from the concerns of citizens.
"I am simply one of you," he told voters in the eastern city of Biała Podlaska during a campaign tour.
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