Delegations from Ukraine and Russia exchanged memoranda of understanding yesterday in Istanbul on a possible ceasefire that would end the three-year war and presented starkly different ideas about what a long-term path to peace should look like.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the meeting as extraordinary and expressed hope that he would be able to bring together Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a meeting in Turkey, along with US President Donald Trump.
The meeting, which lasted barely an hour, took place the day after a massive Ukrainian drone attack on Russian strategic bombers, Reuters recalls.
Delegations from Kiev and Moscow met at the Çıragan Palace on the Bosphorus for a second round of talks brokered by Turkey and the United States after the peace process was revived last month for the first time since the early stages of the conflict. According to the Financial Times, representatives of the two delegations did not shake hands and there were few signs of progress towards a possible agreement.
Russian negotiators handed the Ukrainians a detailed memorandum yesterday outlining Moscow’s conditions for a full ceasefire, Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky told reporters after the talks. Medinsky, who is leading the Russian delegation, also said Russia had proposed a two- or three-day ceasefire in certain areas. “We have proposed a concrete ceasefire of two to three days in certain parts of the front line,” Medinsky said, “so that commanders can collect the bodies of their soldiers.”
The Ukrainian delegation, led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, released a memorandum ahead of yesterday's meeting proposing a complete and unconditional ceasefire, guarantees for the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine, as well as confidence-building measures as the basis for a possible peace agreement.
Ukraine has proposed holding another round of negotiations by the end of June, but believes that only a meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Putin can resolve numerous contentious issues, Umerov said.
According to a draft roadmap drawn up by Ukraine and seen by Reuters, Kiev wants no limits on its military power after a possible peace deal, does not accept international recognition of Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine occupied by Russian forces and is seeking war reparations. Russia currently controls slightly less than a fifth of Ukrainian territory, or about 113.100 square kilometers.
Statements by Medinsky, as well as other senior Kremlin officials in the weeks following the first meeting, indicated that Moscow was not ready to back down from its demand to address the “roots” of the conflict.
Putin has previously demanded that Ukraine withdraw from four areas partially under Russian control - Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia - accept limitations on its military and commit to never joining NATO.
Although the atmosphere at the Istanbul meeting was tense and the dialogue brief, the talks nevertheless resulted in an agreement on a new prisoner exchange and the return of the bodies of 12000 fallen soldiers. Umerov said the new exchange would focus on those seriously wounded in the war and on young people.
President Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said a delegation from Kiev had handed over a list of children it claims were deported to Russia and is seeking their return. Moscow says the children were moved to protect them from the fighting. Medinsky said the Ukrainian list contained 339 names, but insisted the children were not “kidnapped” but “rescued.”
Ukraine carried out one of its most ambitious attacks of the war on Sunday, using drones to attack Russian strategic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons, in Siberia and other locations.
Outraged war bloggers called on Moscow to retaliate strongly, comparing the attack to Pearl Harbor, Japan's attack on the US Pacific Fleet in 1941.
Ukraine and Russia have given starkly different estimates of the damage inflicted on Russia's fleet of strategic bombers, a key element of its nuclear arsenal, but publicly available satellite imagery shows that Moscow has suffered serious losses in equipment. Ukraine's security service claims that 41 Russian aircraft were destroyed in the operation, dubbed "Spider Web."
The attack represents one of the heaviest blows Ukraine has dealt Russia in a war now entering its fourth year. Russia has a relatively small number of strategic bombers - probably fewer than 90 operational Tu-22s, Tu-95s and the newer Tu-160s in total. These planes can carry nuclear weapons, but they were used to fire conventional cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets until last week. This has made them a high-priority target for Ukrainian military planners. According to The Economist, many of these planes are old and no longer in production - the last Tu-22M3 and Tu-95 were built more than 30 years ago, and their successors, the Tu-160s, are being produced extremely slowly.
The fact that Ukraine has managed to damage or destroy so many of Russia's most advanced aircraft deep inside Russian territory is a testament to the development of its program for attacks deep inside Russian territory, as well as the extraordinary degree to which Ukrainian operatives can now operate under cover of secrecy inside Russia itself.
Western countries have provided some assistance to Ukraine's long-range strike program, and Germany pledged on May 28 to fund Ukraine's long-range drones, but much of the technology and planning for Sunday's operation was domestically produced, the Economist points out.
A senior Ukrainian official acknowledged that the operation risks turning Western partners against Ukraine. “We are worried that this is Sinop,” he said, alluding to the Russian attack on the Ottoman port in 1853 that ultimately led to the attackers’ international isolation.
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