As the winds of populism whirl across Europe’s political kaleidoscope, a group of northern states is gaining ground as a geopolitical anchor. Known as the Nordic-Baltic Eight (NB8 in diplomatic jargon), the group brings together small northern European states that may not individually carry much weight in international security and politics. However, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, their role as a group to bolster Western resolve has grown ever stronger, offering an attractive combination of democratic security, defense integration, and societal resilience.
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden established their regional cooperation format in 1992, after the end of the Cold War, with regular meetings of prime ministers, parliament speakers, foreign and defense ministers and senior state officials. It began as a forum for the wealthy and stable Nordic countries to re-establish ties with their Baltic neighbors, with whom they had traded and exchanged ideas for centuries, but who, after World War II, were closed behind the Iron Curtain under Soviet rule.
The group's importance has grown in a new geopolitical era of great-power rivalry, in which the Arctic, the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea have once again become strategically contested zones. "The world is changing rapidly... it is most important that Europe rearms itself," said the Danish Prime Minister. Mette Frederiksen, the current chair of the NB8, explaining why Copenhagen no longer sees itself as part of the “austerity” countries that oppose higher EU spending. Denmark will also take over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union from July, further increasing the visibility of the Nordic region.
While national-populist politicians have gained strength in Central Europe, making the region more skeptical of the EU and less sympathetic to Ukraine, the Nordic and Baltic countries remain bastions of support for Kiev and European and NATO defense efforts, even as their migration policies have become tougher under pressure from their own populists.
The NB8 countries were involved from the very beginning in the Franco-British “coalition of the willing”, established to provide military and political support to Ukraine when the US President Donald tramp suspended US aid to Kiev in an attempt to coerce the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to a peace agreement on Russian terms. As Frederiksen puts it, they see Ukrainian independence and the defeat of Russian aggression as their own vital interest, given their geographical proximity to Russia.
Both NATO and the EU rely heavily on the “total defense” model of Finland and Sweden, which involves the public and private sectors, as well as civil society, in preparing for military defense, civil preparedness, and economic resilience in the face of Russian and Chinese hybrid warfare tactics. Much can be learned from their comprehensive societal approach.
Finland, for example, with a population of 5,6 million and only 24.000 members of the armed forces in peacetime, can quickly mobilize a wartime army of 180.000 soldiers and has a reserve force of 870.000 trained soldiers, thanks to a system of compulsory military service and regular exercises of reservists. Business leaders are often also reserve military leaders. They regularly attend security seminars and have legal obligations to maintain supplies, share logistical infrastructure and provide reserve production capacity for crisis situations. After fighting two wars with the Soviet Union alone in the XNUMXs, the country maintains a sufficient number of well-equipped shelters for its entire population in case of bombing.
Last year, Sweden sent an updated version of a brochure to five million households, advising citizens on what to do “in case of crisis and war,” including stockpiling non-perishable food, having a battery-powered radio and flashlight, a first-aid kit, and other necessities. The European Commission recently recommended that all member states take similar steps to prepare their populations for possible emergencies.
The NB8 members regularly consult before NATO and EU meetings - although Norway and Iceland are not EU members - and coordinate their diplomacy around the world. Symbolically, the five Nordic countries share an embassy complex and cultural center in Berlin, the capital of Europe's largest economy.
In Europe's increasingly complex energy and security matrix, the Nordic and Baltic allies have the advantage of being stable, like-minded democracies with a broad consensus in support of defense and deterrence against Russia. This makes them reliable partners for the German Chancellor. Friedrich Merz, at a time when Poland is facing political instability, France lacks a parliamentary majority and is burdened by debt, and Italy is hesitant to step up its defense efforts.
All eight countries have linked their militaries with the United Kingdom and the Netherlands through the Joint Expeditionary Force, maintaining high-readiness units trained to respond quickly to crises. They work with NATO to protect vital undersea cables and pipelines from Russian and Chinese sabotage attempts.
Some members have gone a step further in integrating their defenses. For example, four Nordic air forces this year formed a Nordic division within NATO, tasked with implementing the Nordic Air Power Concept, which allows Danish, Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish squadrons to act as a single force in full-scale, high-readiness operations. The three Baltic states are building a joint defense line on their eastern borders modeled on the Ukrainian front lines. The Baltic states are also considering Estonia’s “Baltic Drone Wall” concept, which would use artificial intelligence and sensors to monitor borders and protect against drones.
Although they demonstrate great strength, the influence of the NB8 has its limits. Small, open economies depend on free trade and a stable global environment for their prosperity. Within the EU, the group has failed to prevent the European Commission from relaxing state aid control rules, which has allowed greater subsidies to French and German industry. More broadly, a world shaped by tariffs, lack of climate action, illiberalism and spheres of influence of great powers presents a toxic scenario for the Nordic and Baltic countries.
Growing protectionism and instability could mark a fateful moment for the European North.
The text is taken from "The Guardian"
Translation: NB
Bonus video:
