While attention has focused on the European Union's efforts to reduce imports of Russian gas and oil over the past few years, one important product has gone almost unnoticed: fertilizer.
Russia is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of fertilizers used by farmers and food producers.
Although the EU has largely removed Russian oil and gas from its import list, it has significantly increased its purchases of Russian fertilizer since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Russia's share of EU fertilizer imports rose from 17 percent in 2022 to around 30 percent today. In 2024 alone, imports rose by more than 33 percent, reaching around $1,75 billion (€XNUMX billion).
According to MIT's Observatory of Economic Complexity, Russia exported fertilizers worth a total of $2023 billion in 15,3, making it the world's largest exporter. While its main partners are India and Brazil, the EU as a whole accounts for a significant portion of Russian exports — about 13 percent in 2023.
However, earlier this month, the European Parliament backed a proposal by the European Commission to impose a 6,5 percent tariff on fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus. The plan is to gradually increase the tariffs to 50 percent by 2028.
Why is the EU buying so much Russian fertilizer?
This can be partly explained by the type of fertilizer Russia produces and the way it produces it. Russia specializes in nitrogen-based, or inorganic, fertilizers, the production of which requires huge amounts of natural gas — both as a raw material and as an energy source in the production process. Many EU countries need these fertilizers, as they are rich in nitrogen and key nutrients such as phosphorus and potassium.
William Mosley, a geography professor at Macalester College in the US and a member of the United Nations' team of experts on food security and nutrition, told DW that Russia is particularly well-suited to meet this demand because it uses cheap gas to produce fertilizer, allowing it to offer lower prices than European competitors.
The European fertilizer industry has strongly criticized what some call Russian “dumping” — the placing of cheap fertilizer on the EU market.
When the invasion of Ukraine and sanctions caused energy prices in Europe to skyrocket and markets to be disrupted, many European nitrogen fertilizer producers were forced to shut down. They have now lost market share to Russia and are struggling to compete.
What alternatives does the EU have?
According to Moseley, the EU's plans to impose tariffs show that it is serious about ending its dependence on Russian fertilizer by 2028.
"This will force EU countries to source inorganic fertilizers from other sources," he told DW, citing China, Oman, Morocco, Canada and the US as possible alternative partners.
Mosley believes other options for the EU would be to rely on its own sources of nitrogen fertilizer — which would be very expensive due to the gas requirement — or to increase the use of organic fertilizer, made from manure and composted organic waste. This option, he added, would be “more sustainable and better for the soil.”
"While it is unlikely that the EU could completely eliminate imports of inorganic fertilizers, it could certainly shift the balance in favor of domestic production of organic fertilizers, especially if done gradually," said Mosley.
The EU itself has admitted that it wants to move in that direction — toward developing fertilizer obtained by processing animal feces and urine.
Christoph Hansen, the European Commissioner for Agriculture and Food, said in February that the livestock sector can “make a positive contribution to the circular economy” through organic fertilizer, because it is “domestically produced, does not have to be imported and does not depend on high energy prices such as gas.”
How will the EU plan work?
Mosley believes that EU tariffs on fertilizer, if implemented as planned, will gradually eliminate Russian imports from the EU market by 2028. “By 2028, tariffs will be so high that it will be economically unviable for the EU to import inorganic fertilizer from Russia and Belarus.”
The EU sanctions will come into effect in July and will specifically target agricultural products that have been neglected so far, including fertilizers.
The European Commission statement states that fertilizer imports "make the EU vulnerable to possible coercive measures by Russia and thus pose a risk to food security in the EU."
The reason why the sanctions will be introduced gradually over the next three years is to give EU farmers enough time to find alternatives, especially if they are already dependent on Russian fertilizer.
What do fertilizer manufacturers say?
In a statement on the EU's plan to impose tariffs, Leo Alders, president of the Fertilizers Europe industry group, said the sharp rise in Russian fertilizer imports into Europe had for too long "undermined fair competition and put pressure on domestic producers."
While he called for tariffs to be imposed more quickly and decisively, Alders wrote that “by establishing a level playing field in the market, tariffs will help ensure that European producers can continue to supply European farmers with high-quality, sustainable fertilizers for years to come.”
What do farmers say?
However, farmers' associations are not satisfied, as they believe that the EU has not done enough to develop realistic and affordable alternatives to Russian fertilizer.
Copa (Comité des organisations professionnelles agricoles) and Cogeca (Comité général de la coopération agricole de l'Union européenne), the two main umbrella organisations representing the interests of farmers in the EU, have issued a joint statement calling on the EU to present a clear strategy for diversifying fertilizer supply sources.
If the EU is truly determined to reduce its dependence on Russian and Belarusian fertilizers, the statement said, it must present a “credible and long-term” alternative.
"We cannot afford to further undermine the economic viability of farms or the food security of millions of people across the EU," the statement said.
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