US President Donald Trump's decision to launch attacks on Iran presents Russian President Vladimir Putin with both danger and opportunity: the attacks have hit Moscow's strategic partner, but could open a potential door for Russia's diplomatic relevance.
Following the US attacks on key nodes of Iran's nuclear complex, Tehran is turning to Moscow. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on Sunday that he would travel to Russia on Monday for consultations with Putin.
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Speaking at a press conference on the sidelines of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Istanbul, Aragchi said he would hold "serious consultations with the Russian president" about the escalation of the conflict in which the United States (US) is now directly involved.
That's not a surprise.
Iran and Russia have deepened ties in recent months, with the two countries signing a strategic partnership agreement during Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's visit to the Kremlin in January.
It appears that Araghchi's visit was already in the works: NBC News' Andrea Mitchell said Friday that the Iranian foreign minister had told her he would be traveling to Moscow.
The official reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry to the US attacks on Iran was an unequivocal condemnation.
In a statement released today, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow "resolutely condemns" the US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, saying that "the irresponsible decision to subject the territory of a sovereign state to missile and bomb attacks, regardless of the arguments surrounding it, grossly violates international law, the United Nations (UN) Charter and UN Security Council resolutions, which have previously unequivocally classified such actions as unacceptable."
Strong words, despite the clear irony: One aspect of Moscow's partnership with Tehran was the transfer of drone technology that allowed the Russian military to continue bombing Ukrainian cities.
But the Iran-Russia strategic partnership is not a mutual defense pact. The Russian government has also made clear in recent weeks that the partnership agreement does not oblige it to defend Iran if it is attacked.
And in his latest public comments on the Israeli-Iranian conflict, Putin has taken a somewhat measured tone.
Speaking at the plenary session of the 28th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Friday, Putin referred to Tehran's "legitimate right" to conduct uranium enrichment for civilian nuclear energy development, but nodded to what he called "Israel's security concerns" over Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The Russian president also suggested – somewhat circumlocutionarily – that Russia could play a mediating role in ending the conflict.
"We have expressed our position to both sides. As you know, we maintain contact with Israel, as well as with our friends in Iran. We have certain proposals that involve Russia. I must emphasize that we are in no way positioning ourselves as mediators. We are only putting forward ideas," Putin said.
Ahead of Israel's surprise air campaign against Iran on June 13, Russian diplomats had already put forward one concrete proposal: That Russia take over Iranian nuclear material for the production of reactor fuel.
Russian diplomatic influence over Iran was an important card in Putin's hands. Russia was one of the signatories to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 agreement to limit Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Although Russia has been increasingly isolated from the West since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow's influence over Tehran is often seen as the key to any deal with Iran.
In a commentary published before the US attacks on Iran, Andrei Kortunov of the Russian government's International Affairs Council said that Russia's strategic partnership with Iran could potentially give Russia the ability to play the role of an "impartial mediator" to resolve or defuse conflicts.
"In this way, Moscow would strengthen its influence in the region after the fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad" last year. However, the continued escalation is accompanied by serious risks and potential costs for Moscow. The fact remains: Russia failed to prevent a massive Israeli attack on a country with which it signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement just five months ago. Moscow is clearly not ready, in addition to political statements condemning Israeli actions, to provide Iran with military assistance," Kortunov wrote.
A lot has changed since the signing of the JCPOA: Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
Iran responded by expanding its uranium enrichment program; and the collapse of the Assad regime, a client of both Russia and Iran, and the Israeli beheading of Hezbollah dealt a debilitating blow to Iran's so-called "axis of resistance."
The Middle East conflict is now developing even more rapidly after direct US military intervention. Russia is now on less secure economic footing – Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said last week that the Russian economy is on the brink of recession – although a spiralling crisis in the Middle East could push up oil prices, the bedrock of Russian economic power.
Speaking last week in St. Petersburg, Putin quoted Mark Twain when asked about the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Russian economy, saying:
"As a famous writer once said, 'Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.'"
But that war continues unabated, at a high human and economic cost to Russia. With the US directly intervening militarily in Iran, it is unclear whether Putin will continue to enjoy the same geopolitical advantage he has had in the past.
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