NATO has carefully crafted a summit in The Hague this week to solidify its position by meeting US President Donald Trump's ambitious new military spending target. But the gathering could be overshadowed by the fallout from US military strikes on Iran, Reuters reports.
The two-day gathering is also intended to send a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that NATO is united, despite Trump's earlier criticism of the alliance, and is determined to expand and improve its defenses to deter any potential attack from Moscow.
The summit and final declaration will be short and focused on meeting Trump's demand to spend 5 percent of GDP on defense, a significant jump from the current target of 2 percent. It should be achieved through greater investments in both military capabilities and other security-related aspects.
However, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez undermined NATO Secretary-General Marco Rutte's preparations last week when he said Madrid did not have to comply with the new spending target, even though Spain had approved the summit's final declaration.
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Rutte insisted yesterday that Spain had no right to an exemption and that NATO was "absolutely convinced" that Madrid would have to reach a new target to meet its military obligations within the alliance.
"NATO as an alliance does not recognize exceptions, parallel agreements, etc., because we all have to contribute," Rute told reporters in The Hague.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had to settle for a dinner invitation ahead of the summit instead of participating in the leaders' formal meeting on Wednesday, due to his strained relationship with Trump.
Reuters points out that the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend makes the outcome of the summit far less predictable than Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister and host of the gathering in his hometown, and other member states would like.
He adds that many things will depend on the specific situation in the Middle East at the time of the summit, for example, whether Iran has responded to the US strikes, as well as whether NATO leaders raise the issue in talks with Trump or in statements to the media.
If the meeting does not go as planned, NATO risks appearing weak and divided, at a time when European members face what they see as the biggest threat since the end of the Cold War - Russia - while simultaneously preparing for the possible withdrawal of US troops from the continent.
Putin yesterday rejected NATO claims that Russia could attack an alliance member, calling them lies used by the West to justify massive military spending.
Under NATO's new defense spending plan, countries would spend 3,5 percent of GDP on "core defense," such as weapons and troops, and an additional 1,5 percent on security-related investments, such as adapting roads, ports, and bridges for military use, protecting gas pipelines, and preventing cyberattacks.
Such an increase, which would be introduced gradually over ten years, would mean an additional hundreds of billions of dollars for military purposes.
Last year, alliance members collectively spent about 2,6 percent of NATO's total GDP on basic defense, which amounted to about $1,3 trillion, according to NATO estimates. A huge chunk of that came from the United States, which alone spent nearly $818 billion.
Washington has made it clear that it is time for Europeans to shoulder more of the financial and military burden of their own defense.
European leaders say they have understood the message, but want a gradual and orderly transition, fearing Putin could exploit any gaps in defense capabilities.
They especially want to emphasize the commitment to spending, as Trump has previously threatened not to defend allies that do not allocate enough for defense.
A draft of the summit's final declaration, agreed by NATO governments and seen by Reuters, reads: "We reaffirm our ironclad commitment to collective defense, as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty - an attack on one is an attack on all."
While many European countries see Russia as a growing threat, Trump has expressed a desire for better economic relations with Moscow. Europeans believe that this would allow Russia to further strengthen its military and pose an even greater threat to them.
Similarly, many Europeans are wary of Trump's attempts to ease Russia's diplomatic isolation as part of his efforts to reach a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
The brief summit statement will contain only one reference to Russia as a threat to Euro-Atlantic security and another to the allies' commitment to supporting Ukraine, diplomats said.
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Rutte (58), known as a master of navigating political and financial traps, carefully organized the summit schedule to avoid further friction between Trump and European leaders over how to position themselves toward Russia.
“Most, if not all, allies, except the US, see Russia as a real threat and as the main driver of NATO’s defense. But not Trump. He sees it as an opportunity, and that difference has become enormous,” said Sten Rinning, director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Studies and author of “NATO: From the Cold War to Ukraine, a History of the World’s Most Powerful Alliance.”
Rather than dealing with Russia, China and Iran, the summit is organized to succeed “in the sense that they can announce that the alliance is united and united on the issue of military spending, Rining added.
Rutte is close to Zelensky and unreservedly supports Ukraine. However, when it comes to the role of NATO, he walks on the edge, writes Reuters.
Rining says the disagreement over Russia, which has been put aside for now, could eventually become the biggest challenge to Rutte's tenure.
For Rutte, "now is not the time to allow the alliance to break up," he said, but in the long run, "it will be his leadership challenge."
For now, Rutte has only sought to convince Trump that Europe is ready to take greater responsibility for its own defense.
"This summit is about the Euro-Atlantic space, about ensuring that we can defend ourselves against the Russians - the Russians who are very rapidly rebuilding their capabilities," he told reporters yesterday.
“To be able to defend ourselves against China, which is also rapidly building up its capabilities, including 1.000 nuclear warheads by 2030. So we really need to spend more, produce more, and keep Ukraine strong.”
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