Google admits it failed to warn 10 million people about earthquake in Turkey

Google has admitted that its earthquake early warning system failed to warn people during a deadly earthquake in Turkey in 2023, the BBC reports.

Ten million people within 150 kilometers of the epicenter could have received Google's highest-level warning, giving them up to 35 seconds to get to safety.

Instead, only 7,8 warnings to "take action" were sent for the first 469 magnitude earthquake.

Google told that half a million people received a lower-level warning, intended for "minor earthquakes," and that it does not alert users in the same alarming way.

The tech giant previously told the BBC that the system "had a good performance".

The system works on Android devices, which account for more than 70 percent of phones in Turkey.

More than 55.000 people died when two powerful earthquakes struck southeastern Turkey on February 6th, and more than 100.000 were injured.

Many were sleeping in buildings that collapsed around them when the earthquakes began.

Google's early warning system was functional and active on the day of the earthquakes, however, it underestimated how strong these earthquakes were.

"We continue to improve the system based on what we learn from each earthquake," a Google spokesperson said.

How does the system work?

Google's system, called Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA), can detect earthquakes from a vast number of mobile phones running the Android operating system.

Because an earthquake moves relatively slowly through the ground, it provides an opportunity to send out warnings.

Google's most serious warning is called "take action," which triggers a loud alarm on the user's phone, overriding even the "do not disturb" function on it, and covers their entire screen.

This is a warning that should be sent to people when stronger earthquakes that could endanger human life are registered.

The AEA also has a less serious warning, "be warned," intended to notify users of potential minor earthquakes, an alert that does not override the device when set to "do not disturb" mode.

The "take action" alert was of particular importance in Turkey due to the catastrophic scale of the earthquake and because the first quake struck at 04:17, when many users were sleeping.

Only a more serious warning would wake them from their slumber.

In the months after the earthquake, the BBC wanted to speak to users who had received this warning - initially with the intention of demonstrating the effectiveness of this technology.

But despite speaking to people in towns and cities across the impact zone, over a period of months, they could not find anyone who had received a more serious "take action" notification before the earthquake struck.

They published their findings later that year.

"Limitations"

Google researchers wrote in the journal Science about what went wrong, citing "limitations in detection algorithms."

For the first earthquake, the system estimated the tremors at between 4,5 and 4,9 on the Earthquake Magnitude Scale (MMS), when they were actually 7,8.

A second, stronger earthquake later that day was also underestimated, with the system sending "take action" warnings to 8.158 phones and "be alert" notifications to just under four million users.

After the earthquake, Google researchers changed the algorithm and re-simulated the first earthquake.

This time, the system generated ten million "take action" alerts for those most at risk and another 67 million "be warned" notifications for those living further from the epicenter.

"Every earthquake early warning system struggles with the same challenge - tuning the algorithm to large-magnitude events," Google told the BBC.

But Elizabeth Reddy, an assistant professor at the Colorado School of Mines, says it's concerning that it took more than two years to get this information.

"I'm really unhappy that it took so long. We're not talking about some small event - people have died - and we haven't seen the impact of this warning the way we would have liked," she said.

Google says the system is intended to be supplementary and not a replacement for national systems.

However, some scientists worry that countries are putting too much faith in technology that has not been fully tested.

"I think it's absolutely important to be transparent about how well it works. Would some countries count on Google already doing it anyway, so we don't have to?" Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, told the BBC.

Google researchers say that post-event analysis improved the system - AEA sent warnings to 98 countries.

The BBC asked Google how AEA performed during the 2025 earthquake in Myanmar, but has yet to receive a response.